Why Ole Miss controls its own destiny to make the Playoff + rooting guide 2.0
Rooting guide 2.0, why the Rebels will stomp Florida and some CFP ranking analysis
Ole Miss faces its final real test of the regular season on Saturday at Florida. Let’s take a look at what the game means given where the Rebels were slotted in the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings, what to watch for in the game and run through another weekend rooting guide.
Ole Miss No. 9 in latest CFP rankings
The latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday evening. Leading up to the release, I had developed the opinion that this iteration of the rankings was the most important one of the season for the Rebels and simultaneously the last one that mattered at all. After a win over Georgia that sent shockwaves across the college football and media landscape, Ole Miss sat idle last week while Georgia and Tennessee, one team ranked ahead and one behind the Rebels, played each other. There was some thought that the Rebels would drop from their No. 11 perch after a week off and a potential Georgia win over the Volunteers that eventually came to fruition. Would the committee leapfrog Georgia over Ole Miss less than two weeks removed from the Rebels dismantling the Bulldogs? Would the committee rank a now two-loss Tennessee behind Ole Miss or bump the Rebels to the bottom of this three-team pecking order?
The significance of last week’s rankings after Ole Miss toppled Georgia and moved up to No. 11 was that, for the moment, the Rebels were the last at-large bid in the Playoff field. While they didn’t completely control their own destiny at the time, it would take some poor fortune for Ole Miss to be left out assuming it won its final two games. The Rebels dropping to 12 or worse in the rankings without playing a game would’ve presented a completely different dynamic: Ole Miss would’ve needed help in the form of upsets to crawl back into the playoff bracket.
All of these worries were quelled by the committee getting it right and keeping Ole Miss ahead of Georgia and dropping Tennessee behind the Rebels. Everything seems to be working in this program’s favor right now. Ole Miss didn’t play a game last week and moved UP two slots in the rankings. Now, all of those other hypotheticals I wasted your time going through are all irrelevant: Ole Miss controls its own destiny to make the College Football playoff. Sitting at No. 9, and the current 10th-seed (please don’t ask me to explain the seeding right now. It’s stupid and confusing but will make sense in the end), if Ole Miss wins its final two games, it will cement a berth in the Playoff and, as it currently stands, has a decent chance to host a first-round game in Oxford.
That’s why I thought this week’s rankings were the most significant as it pertains to Ole Miss. We’d either know that the Rebels controlled their destiny or would need outside help over the final two weeks. The ball is in Ole Miss’ court now to finish the job.
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Florida at a glance
Florida is coming off its biggest win of the season after knocking off LSU at home. The Gators have had a strange, trying 2024 season. Before the season began, head coacvh Billy Napier was viewed by most non-local media as a dead man walking and on the hottest seat of any coach in the SEC. The local media told a different (and more accurate) story, that Florida did not really want to fire Napier given his large buyout and the idea of starting over with its third coach in five years. I had Florida’s 247 beat reporter Graham Hall on my podcast in August as part of Rippee Writes’ opponent preview series and he said at the time that six wins, and even five wins depending on optics, would potentially be enough to save Napier’s job. He’s turned out to be correct. Napier will return for a fourth season in 2025, per a statement put out by AD Scott Stricklin a week or so ago.
Florida is currently in the middle of what might be the most difficult schedule stretch I have ever seen in college football. Take a peek at the Gators’ second half of the season (rankings retroactive to time of the game): at No. 9 Tennessee, vs Kentucky, neutral site vs No. 2 Georgia, at No. 5 Texas, vs No. 21 LSU, vs No. 9 Ole Miss, at Florida State. Think about how even more daunting that looked in the preseason when LSU was ranked No. 13 and Florida State was No. 10. It’s truly an insanely difficult stretch of games. Other than Florida State being an abject disaster, it’s still proven to be ridiculously difficult.
The Gators entered the year with veteran QB, Wisconsin-transfer Graham Mertz leading the offense with 5-star true freshman D.J. Lagway behind him. Mertz was concussed in a season-opening blowout loss at home to Miami. Lagway played the next week against Samford and shined. Instead of a desperate head coach sticking with a young quarterback and selling the future to potentially save his own job, Napier started Mertz the next week against Texas A&M, a game the Gators fell behind by three scores early and lost. Mertz tore his ACL in an overtime road loss at Tennessee — a game in which Florida led for most of the way, squandered the lead and tied it with a late touchdown with just 29 seconds remaining. Florida, surprisingly, did not elect to go for two and the win and instead played for overtime and lost. Lagway was thrust into the starting role the next week. The Gators blew out Kentucky at home. Lagway got hurt against Georgia, a game that the Gators again led for a large portion of, and missed the Texas game, and returned last week in the win over LSU.
Apologies for the play-by-play of Florida’s season, but I think it’s important when examining the current state of this Gators team. To its credit, Florida has not quit on Napier and continues to play hard each week. The team clearly has a newfound level of belief with Lagway at quarterback. He’s a wildly talented but raw prospect as a true freshman. He has a cannon of an arm, and, when healthy, can hurt opponents running the football, but makes poor decisions and is turnover-prone. It’s worth noting that Lagway, who is definitely not fully healthy, did not rush the football a single time against LSU. I think you’re going to see a limited version of this uber-talented quarterback on Saturday. I would be surprised if he played any sort of role in the running game and I think he’s going to struggle mightily against this Ole Miss defensive line with his limited mobility.
Beyond that, I really don’t have much more worthy analysis of Florida. The Gators are a below-average offense and are slow on defense despite having some talent. Florida did generate seven sacks against what is supposed to be a fierce LSU offensive line, but there isn’t a single aspect of this Florida team that jumps off the page in terms of being a potential problem for Ole Miss. The Rebels are a vastly better and more talented football team than the Gators. I think Ole Miss wins this game handily and I think this game will follow a similar script to the win at Arkansas in which Ole Miss KO’d its opponent by halftime.
Will this be a cakewalk for Ole Miss? In theory, no. Florida does have talent on its roster, though I think the Gators’ lack of depth, particularly on the defensive side, hasn’t been talked about enough (the Gators’ starting secondary played all 93 snaps against LSU last week). But if Ole Miss shows up focused and ready to play, I really don’t think this game will be a nail-biter. And I don’t know why Ole Miss wouldn’t be locked in. Its entire season is on the line in these final two weeks, which brings me back to a theory I’ve mentioned all year that has seemingly proved to be pretty accurate when prognosticating outcomes: you cannot fake desperation in this week-to-week sport that is college football in 2024. Ole Miss absolutely has to win this football game. Florida does not. The Gators, in all likelihood, will beat a dumpster fire of a Florida State team on the Seminoles’ home field next week to gain bowl eligibility and will seemingly feel good about where the program is headed going into next year with Napier. That’s what made the LSU win so significant for them. Entering the daunting final four-game stretch, Florida needed to beat one of Texas, LSU or Ole Miss to position itself for bowl eligibility entering the Florida State game. The Gators accomplished that last week in a game that I thought was vastly more reflective of LSU’s flaws than Florida being some type of dangerous team finding itself down the stretch. LSU out-gained Florida and possessed the football for over 2/3 of the game. The Tigers gave up too many explosive plays and then seemingly quit on the field in the fourth quarter.
Anyway, I digress. I think this seemingly rejuvenated Ole Miss team handles its business and wins this game convincingly. With that said, I’ll still give you an abbreviated version of five things to watch for in this game because I am a man of the people.
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Five things to Watch
Logan Diggs - The LSU transfer running back tore his ACL in the Tigers’ bowl game last January. When he announced his intention to come to Ole Miss, there was some optimism within the program (that has proven to be wishful thinking) that he might be ready to play by October. To partially quote the great Ricky Bobby from Talladega Nights, despite advances in modern science and Diggs’ high-level of income, a late-November return seemed much more realistic and aligned with an ACL injury recovery timeline (roughly 10 months). Kiffin said in his Monday press conference that Digg has “done more in practice” than he has all season. Diggs is officially listed as questionable on this week’s injury report. Based on what I have heard, I would be mildly surprised if Diggs played in this game. But, if Ole Miss can get Diggs on the field either this week or the Egg Bowl, that’s a massive boost for a run game that’s been pretty awful this year due to a combination of inadequate personnel at running back and run-blocking struggles on the offensive line.
Tre Harris - Harris, who leads the SEC in receiving despite missing the last three-and-a-half games, is supposedly a full go this week, according to Kiffin. I found this to be a little surprising based on what I had heard about the severity of the injury in the week leading up to Georgia. I was told, despite speculation to the contrary at the time, that Harris was not close to playing in the Georgia game. But, the Rebels have had a bye week since, so maybe whatever his injury is/was, has healed. If Harris is back, I am curious to see what the Ole Miss offense looks like. In its early season struggles, a clunky and disjointed offense force-fed Harris the football to the point of him basically being a one-man band in the passing game. Harris’ absence forced this coaching staff to alter its approach to the passing game and the Rebels have seemingly become a better offense as a result. I am obviously not insinuating any sort of Ewing Theory potential here. Ole Miss is better off with Tre Harris healthy and on the field. It’s absurd to suggest otherwise, but I am curious to see how he’s integrated back into this passing game and how that is handled without the Rebels slipping back to the toothless offense they were a few months ago.
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The offensive line - Jayden Williams was not listed on this week’s injury report. He has not played since the Wake Forest game due to an injury. Kiffin made a comment in his Monday press conference that his bye week has helped this team immensely from a health standpoint and cited that the offensive line’s two-deep (on the depth chart) was fully healthy for the first time this season. Ole Miss found a decent pass-blocking combination in the wins over Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia. I am curious to see if there is any change to the starting five linemen. This staff has been pretty resistant to major change on the offensive line. But if Williams is fully healthy, it would be completely foolish not to play him, so I am curious to see if there is any change to the starting offensive line.
Jaxson Dart’s health - Dart rolled his ankle on the first possession against Georgia, went into the locker room, missed a drive, then came back and played well. After the win, Kiffin described Dart’s return as him “undergoing some medical things” before returning, which I can only assume is code for Dart being shot up with enough Toradol to kill a horse and could not feel his foot for the final three quarters of that game. Ankle injuries can be pesky. I don’t think it’ll be some sort of major issue in this game, but I am curious to see if Dart is limited at all two weeks removed from the injury. He’s been a buoy at times for a terrible running game via some designed run concepts. I am curious if Charlie Weis Jr. and Kiffin run Dart much at all and if he’s limited in any capacity.
Jorts - It’s November in Florida. Is this jorts thing just a stereotype? Or do these people actually walk into a GAP, buy jean shorts and slap that elastic waistband denim on and get ready for some football? I will be monitoring the crowd’s fashion choices closely.
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Rooting Guide 2.0
I was surprised at the feedback of last week’s last minute rooting guide. Maybe I was surprised that many of you still read this column, which I am grateful for. So, I supposed I’ll offer another version of it this week. Given what we discussed above about Ole Miss controlling its own destiny, this rooting guide will be a little bit different. It’s more geared toward how the Rebels back-end their way into hosting a playoff game versus what needs to happen to ensure they make the playoff.
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State, 11 AM CT (FOX). Rooting interest: Ohio State by a billion.
I’ll preface this by saying that I think Indiana is an incredible story and part of what makes college football so unique. Curt Cignetti, in his first year at Indiana, has single-handedly changed the trajectory of a football program at a basketball-crazy school. I also think that Indiana is actually a pretty good football team that is not nearly as much of a fraudulent paper Tiger as many in the media make the Hoosiers out to be. With that said, Indiana has played a ridiculously weak schedule, to little fault of its own. The Hoosiers are 10-0, and if they lose to Ohio State, and presumably beat Purdue next week, they’ll have an 11-1 season without beating a single team that received a single VOTE in the AP top 25. If Indiana beats Ohio State, it obviously deserves to be in the Playoff. If the Hoosiers lose, their resumé is so weak that I cannot possibly make an argument that they are definitively one of the best 12 teams in college football, as much as I truly admire the story. I think this is a game in which optics and style points matter. If Ohio State demolishes Indiana, I think there is a case to be made that the Hoosiers drop out of the top-12 entirely. If it’s a close game, then things become more complicated. If the Hoosiers win, then it becomes a super fickle situation that includes a debate about a two-loss Ohio State’s worthiness of an at-large bid. Ole Miss doesn’t need that to happen.
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota, 2:30 PM CT (CBS). Rooting interest: Minnesota.
Speaking of fraudulent paper Tigers, a one-loss Penn State team being ranked No. 4 is a complete joke. Aside from a 21-7 home win versus a ranked Illinois team, the Nittany Lions’ resumé is completely void of quality. I’ve seen enough of James Franklin in big games to know this team is a pretender. I’ve seen enough of Drew Allar at quarterback to know that this Penn State team could not beat 10 of the actual 12 best teams in college football. Minnesota is a frisky but inconsistent 6-4 team that is definitely capable of beating Penn State. I think a second Penn State loss will warrant a strong argument that it is not worthy of a playoff spot. That would be good news for Ole Miss as it tries to creep up the seeding and rankings into a first-round host spot.
No. 19 Army at No. 6 Notre Dame, 6:00 PM CT (NBC) Rooting interest: America
Much of the same as we discussed last week. Notre Dame is a one-loss team. Its one loss came at home to Northern Illinois — a MAC program. I think that should immediately disqualify the Irish from the playoff. But because they have cool helmets and won a bunch of big games before modern cable TV, we have to pretend that the only major college football program that isn’t in a conference is somehow a real threat to win the national championship. To Notre Dame’s credit, the Irish have played good football lately and are blowing out opponents. Riley Leonard is a veteran quarterback who has played well in the last couple of games and the Notre Dame defense is pretty good. Ole Miss needs them to take a second loss and get booted from the playoff discussion. What better team to do that than the Troops.
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma, 6:30 PM CT (ABC). Rooting interest: Oklahoma
Not nearly as significant as I thought this game could be a week ago in terms of Ole Miss’ playoff hopes, but Alabama is ahead of Ole Miss in the rankings and seeding. Oklahoma, a team with a fierce defense, a horrible offense and season that could best be titled as snakebit, is talented enough to give Alabama some trouble. Before you ask, no, I have no clue what this would mean for Ole Miss’ chances to make the SEC Championship game (I am pretty sure Ole Miss doesn’t really want or need to make the SECCG at this point), but I think any SEC team ranked in front of Ole Miss losing is good news for the Rebels.
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn, 6:30 PM CT (ESPN). Rooting interest: Auburn
Similar to the game above, this one is not as significant as I thought it might be a week ago, but A&M still has a shot at making the SEC Championship and earning an automatic bid (which would shrink the field and presumably steal an at-large bid from the SEC), so Reverend Hugh Freeze beating the SEC fanbase most similar to the Church of Scientology would be a de facto win for Ole Miss. I don’t think a two-loss A&M team has much of an argument to make the playoff. Its current ranking reflects that, but the Aggies taking a third loss to remove all doubt (then maybe beating Texas the next week to further the SEC cannibalism??) would be good for the Rebels.
Thanks for reading. We’ll have more coverage after the Florida game. I hope you all have a wonderful weekend. Tell your friends to subscribe now for half off the original fee of $0.00