Thursday Scoop: Florida shakes up rotation
Ole Miss-Florida preview, Opening Day, Roy Williams retires and Chris Beard is on the move
Happy Thursday. We’ve got a lot of Ole Miss Baseball to get to today, mostly because Florida made a pitching decision that broke my brain. We’ve got some Opening Day and college hoops news to dive into as well.
Let’s go.
Florida announces rotation shakeup:
Unless this is a COVID situation, I don’t understand this at all and it may be the most bizarre move before an SEC series in recent memory. For context: both Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich have been weekend guys for Florida since 2019. Both are legitimate professional prospects. Each had pedestrian starts last weekend when the Gators were swept at South Carolina, but this would be essentially the equivalent of Mike Bianco yanking Gunnar Hoglund and Doug Nikhazy out of the weekend rotation after a bad start. Hoglund and Nikhazy, both Florida kids oddly enough, are better, but I cannot possibly make it make sense. I will offer a couple theories to try.
Florida plans to use an opener. I imagine most of you know what that is, but for the sake of clarity, an opener is a bullpen arm that pitches the first inning (or the first time through the batting order, at least the bulk of it) and then gives way to the scheduled starter in the second or third inning. The Tampa Bay Rays made this famous during the 2018 season, but with all due respect to Ole Miss, Florida is not trying to exhaust all options to defeat Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. And if you were going to use an opener, why would you go ahead and list the bullpen arms for each day? It gives Bianco and Ole Miss time to counter, if they even feel like they need to. Why wouldn’t you just go TBA and leave it disguised until turning in the lineup card?
All that aside, let’s say they are using an opener. It doesn’t really give Florida an advantage. Both Allman and Scott are right-handers and, unlike in years past, Ole Miss hits lefties and righties about the same and actually hits lefties a tick or two better statistically. All the Gators would be doing is thinning out their bullpen and for the late innings. . . and hoping Mace and Leftwich can go the distance after that? Again, they sort of sucked last weekend. Even if the strategy works as intended, does it really give Florida that much of an advantage with the way Ole Miss’ lineup is constructed? I would argue no. If Kevin O’Sullivan is in fact going with an opener, I don’t understand why
Maybe it is COVID? But the way the report is worded doesn’t sound like it at all. Most schools would either just announce it, leak it, or make it blatantly obvious that it is COVID without specifically saying it. Nick De La Torre has covered the program for a long time and is pretty plugged in. I figure he’d know if that were the case. Nothing has come out since suggesting there it is a COVID issue. This theory makes the most sense, but I don’t feel confident in it either.
Sources: Florida RHP Tommy Mace won’t start and is expected to pitch in relief on Thursday vs. Ole Miss. Would appear to be an opener style strategic move, but that isn’t clear yet. Mace fits somewhere from the late 1st round to the middle of the 2nd round in July’s draft.sounds like it’ll be Franco Aleman starting Thursday ahead of a likely Mace appearance, then Christian Scott starting Friday ahead of a likely Jack Leftwich appearance; Leftwich is the normal second starter of a series. Sully shaking things up after being swept at South Carolina.Maybe O’Sullivan really just wants to shake things up. I find this nearly impossible to believe after one bad weekend. Both of these guys have anchored the rotation for the last three seasons and both had been pretty damn strong aside from the series at South Carolina. If you’re just trying to shake things up, why would you leave the unproven freshman Sunday guy in the rotation and take out your two biggest guns? I would equate freshman left-hander Hunter Barco (UF’s No.3 guy) to 2019 Gunnar Hoglund, not in pitching style, but with where he currently is in his career trajectory — wildly talented and obviously a part of your weekend rotation both now and in the future, but the results haven’t at a consistent enough rate to trust him to go win a game if you absolutely had to. So he stays but your top two horses get bounced out? It doesn’t add up.
Drugs were used when making this decision?
Whatever the reason is, it made this series more interesting. If it is purely a shakeup, O’Sullivan knows his team better than some clown with a newsletter. I just don’t get it at all and am fascinated to watch how it plays out. Bold move, Cotton.
You know what isn’t a baffling decision? Going to LBs on University Avenue across from Kroger. You guys bought greg out of all of his ribeye sausage so we are rolling with a $10 prime strip for the weekend for subscribers. That is a hell of a way to kickoff your Easter weekend. He’s also got plenty of lamb in and made some boudin. Go seem him.
Florida scout
I covered the main storyline above, but I'll add some more nuggets here, per the usual segment.
Florida is a right-handed heavy bullpen with a talented closer but perhaps not as deep as it has been in previous years. Hell, with the rotation shake up pulling Altman and Scott out of the bullpen, I really don’t know how to project their staff shaping up throughout the weekend.
Similar numbers offensively to Ole Miss. Jud Fabian is a dangerous hitter that will plant a mistake 400 feet in a suboptimal location for the Rebels and Nathan Hickey is a talented freshman that DHs and catches some. Florida will be as good and consistent as their freshmen allow them to be. A trio of Colby Halter, Mac Guscette and Sterlin Thompson will be good indicators as to how their lineup holds up against the Ole Miss pitching staff.
What to watch for from Ole Miss
Is Hayden Dunhurst in the lineup and how healthy is his thumb? I would venture to guess he is fine, but worth monitoring.
Does Peyton Chatagnier still look hampered by that hamstring? I doubt he would have played the midweek game had the game happened. What does a couple more days rest change for him?
Gunnar Hoglund got dinged up for a trio of solo shots that appeared to be good scouting report work by Alabama. Two were first-pitch fastballs that were jumped. This is a minute detail, but Hoglund being a hair sharper and getting Ole Miss off to a good start will be important.
Where does Drew McDaniel’s value show up this weekend? Last week it was preserving a 2-0 win in game two with three shutout innings behind Doug Nikhazy. Where does it come this weekend? He’s one hell of a luxury.
Does Nikhazy extend longer this week? Last weekend he left after 78 pitches over five innings, clearly a precautionary measure in his first start back from injury. If it’s a tight game and he’s pitching well in the middle innings, does Bianco let him run out longer?
How many starts does John Rhys Plumlee see this weekend? I’ll set the over/under at 1.5 and go over. I think he sees two in right field. Maybe I am wrong.
Happy Opening Day
I gave my predictions yesterday, but it is good to have baseball back. It is lovely baseball weather in Cincinnati, Ohio where I once spent a brief stint covering the Reds.
The Red Sox postponed their game already due to weather, but baseball is back nevertheless and it will be good to have a normal(ish) season, or so we hope.
Skybox is gearing up for baseball and their projected national champion made the Final Four. These boys don’t miss. Make this the spring of profits for you and go see them. These guys are well worth it. Use my promo code for a sweetener to the deal.
Roy Williams retires, Chris Beard takes Texas job
Pretty shocking college hoops news this morning. Roy Williams has entered retirement. He’s the second legendary coach to do so in as many weeks as Lon Kruger hung it up last week. This season was a trying one for programs across the country. I have no idea how much that played into these decisions if at all, but it will be weird to see someone else coaching the Tar Heels next winter.
Oh and then there is this that just broke.
Congrats to Chris Beard on his payday and to Shaka Smart for playing the system perfectly. Smart gets a restart at Marquette and Beard returns to his alma mater, but be careful what you wish for. It seems entirely possible based on the coaches who have left Texas recently in both basketball and football that is is more of a Texas problem than a coaching problem. Just a thought. Horns down.
On the Horizon:
Mailbag Friday tomorrow with LBs Greg and some baseball reaction from tonight’s game. Send in your grilling, baseball, life advice questions now.
Friday newsletter
Some weekend golf results.
That is all from me today. Hope everyone enjoys their day off tomorrow if that applies to you. We’ll be back with more. Thanks for subscribing. Send to your friends and tell them to smash that button below for discounted meat and lukewarm takes.