The significance of landing Jaxson Dart
Ole Miss has massive week in the portal, Super Bowl is set and hoops went 2-1
Hope everyone had a good weekend. We’ve got a couple of new podcasts out.
Former Ole Miss recruiting specialist and native Louisianan Weldon Rotenberg joined the pod last week to talk about Sean Payton’s impact on the city of New Orleans, Jaxson Dart (before news broke), Michael Trigg and more. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve also got Mailbag Friday right here for your enjoyment.
And then Bracken Ray joined for our Sunday SEC week in review hoops discussion
We have a lot to discuss today.
Jaxson Dart enrolls at Ole Miss
Ole Miss has found its transfer portal quarterback, and also a tight end to go with him. USC transfer and former 4-star prospect Jaxson Dart enrolled in classes and will go through spring practice. Fellow USC transfer and 4-star tight end Michael Trigg followed suit as Lane Kiffin and this staff’s transfer portal-heavy strategy is now taking shape.
Dart played in six games for USC as a freshman. He completed 61 percent of his passes and threw nine touchdowns with five interceptions. Dart missed a little over a month with a torn meniscus he suffered in his collegiate debut against Washington State, a game in which he replaced three-year starter Kedon Slovis and threw four touchdowns with two interceptions. Dart was the 69th ranked player in the 2021 class and the No. 10 rated quarterback. The Draper, Utah native was a bit of a late discovery as far as elite quarterback talent goes and exploded onto the scene his senior year.
The numbers he posted in a small sample size at USC aren’t nearly as important as the sheer fact that Ole Miss replaced a generationally talented quarterback with a blue-chip prospect in Dart. Ever since Ole Miss left Starkville on Thanksgiving night, there was a sense of angst regarding what next year would look like after the first 10-win regular season in program history. That was only exacerbated by a lackluster close to the early signing period that produced valid questions about Kiffin and Ole Miss’s organization when it came to high school recruiting, as well as the viability of a transfer portal-heavy strategy to replenish a roster that lost a lot of production. Significant staff turnover that exceeded the typical offseason attrition within a Power Five program only intensified the sense of angst among the fan base.
Remember the feeling in the days leading up to the Sugar Bowl? It was very much a ‘well, enjoy this now, because it looks like a flash in the pan,’ vibe. It was understandable. The more staff and roster turnover that surfaced in the days after the Sugar Bowl, the more skeptical I became of Kiffin’s ability to reload to anywhere close to the talent level he had in 2021. Or, perhaps better said this way: I was increasingly skeptical of his ability to reload the roster to the quality of an eight or nine-win team that didn’t have a superhero at quarterback masking other deficiencies.
Fast forward four weeks later and Kiffin proved that skepticism to be misguided (not that he gives a damn what I think or even knows who I am. I just mean it was legitimate at the time). You have to give Kiffin and this staff credit. They executed the plan they sold. Ole Miss now has the No. 1 ranked transfer portal class in the country, according to 247Sports. Of the 29 total players the Rebels brought in, they have one 5-star and eleven 4-stars. Ole Miss lost Matt Corral and replaced him with Dart. The Rebels lost all three of the running backs that played a role on the 2021 team and replaced them with 5-star in TCU transfer Zach Evans and Quinshun Judkins. They added a weapon at tight end in Trigg that they simply didn’t have a year ago. The last time Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. had an elite tight end in a normal football season, that guy won the Mackey Award — an honor given to the nation’s most outstanding tight end (FAU’s Harrison Bryant in 2019). On Monday, Ole Miss got pass rush help via Georgia Tech transfer Jared Ivey. He’s a 6-foot-6, 275 lb. edge player that had 32 tackles and six tackles for loss last season.
Ivey joins Oxford native and Auburn defensive tackle J.J. Pegues, Central Michigan linebacker Troy Brown, Auburn safety LaDarrius Tennison and Iowa State safety Isheem Johnson as defensive transfers expected to make a major impact next fall.
Ole Miss likely isn’t done either. This is just a guess, but I figure the Rebels would like to add another offensive lineman, a receiver, one more pass rusher, and at least one more corner and linebacker. But as we discussed a lot over the last month, the sense of angst and doubt was a product of the proverbial hay not being in the barn when it came to building a roster for the 2022 season. A good bit of the hay is now in the barn. And solving the most important position on the field went a long way to rectifying the melancholy vibe from a fanbase standpoint.
Now, with all of that said, will this work? I have no idea. Kiffin’s batting average in the portal is pretty damn strong to this point. Does Ole Miss win 10 games last year without the portal guys? I highly doubt it. Think of the impact Chance Campbell, Jake Springer, and Mark Robinson had on the defense. Orlando Umana wasn't a 'great center, but given how the season played out, what would the offensive line have looked like without him? To finish the analogy you’re likely sick of me using at the point: the more plate appearances and at-bats, the more likely the batting average is to go down. Unless, of course, Kiffin is just really good at this and can hit on guys year after year to the point of mitigating the risk in the strategy. But as it pertains to next year, Ole Miss brought in 11 good players at positions of need that are (at least somewhat) more of a known commodity than a high school prospect. Dynamite analysis here that made you hit subscribe: that seems good.
There’s a discussion to be had about the balance between the portal and landing blue-chip high school talent. But through the shorter lens of next year, you have to tip your cap to Kiffin and this staff. They pulled off what many were skeptical of being realistic. And, if nothing else, Ole Miss is going to be a fascinating team to watch next year.
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Is this the way of the future?
I don’t love talking about recruiting. I respect the people that cover it well. But getting in the headspace of a 17-year-old kid and trying to figure out where he is going to college has never piqued my interest. But I have enjoyed discussing and projecting the effect the transfer portal will have on how various programs approach recruiting. Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are a terrific test case when it comes to this discussion. Will this become the norm for a Kiffin-led Ole Miss program? Or was this a bit of a one-off to avoid a fairly significant rebuild in a time in college football in which coaches aren’t really afforded enough time to orchestrate a true rebuild? I think the last sentence probably answered part of my own question. If you listen to the pod, you’re probably aware I have a habit of doing that. I do think that Kiffin will stick with this strategy throughout his tenure at Ole Miss, however long that ends up being.
Why? Well, here is an angle I have hit on before. I think it suits his personality and strengths better. It’s pretty well known at his point that Kiffin isn’t much of an ass-kisser when it comes to recruiting. Forget your opinions of the other two names I am about to throw out here: if you sent Hugh Freeze, Matt Luke, and Lane Kiffin into the living room of a five-star recruit in a small town in Mississippi, which of the three would you wager on to best compliment a mom’s cooking and win a family over? And why did you rank Kiffin third? This hypothetical is probably a little dramatic. This guy isn’t Rain Man. But hopefully, you can understand the point. I think Kiffin enjoys the evaluation side of recruiting and roster building way more than he does fostering relationships with a couple dozen teenagers, with varying degrees of genuineness, who might not even choose the program he coaches.
The transfer portal has basically created free agency without binding contracts, and without knowing the inner workings of courting transfers, I would imagine it’s a little more business-oriented. It’s more about fit, role and immediate contributions than it is bag men in parking lots, unrealistic promises and everything else that comprises the saga that recruiting a high schooler can sometimes become. Do you think Leo Lewis or Chance Campbell had a more dramatic recruitment? (which one was the more productive player. Ah, nevermind). I think this suits Kiffin well. I also have a theory that it’s also a sign that his next job will be an NFL job, but we can talk about that another day.
Is this sustainable long term? I don’t know, and I think that is what makes this so fascinating. You’d have to think that in order to become an upper-tier SEC program, Ole Miss will have to have more consistent success recruiting blue-chip high school talent. It seems like it will be hard to build real depth in the portal. Transfers aren’t coming to sit and be a backup. But the other side of that coin is that it isn’t like Ole Miss has a history of getting blue-chip high school prospects consistently enough to contend for the SEC West so why not get them in the portal when there is more of a sample size of what they are as a player? I think balance is needed, just like anything else in life. Whether Kiffin can achieve that balance remains to be seen. Maybe he doesn’t care about achieving it and isn’t thinking five and six years down the line. I doubt he is hashing retirement plans in Oxford. If wins until he is gone, all will be well for most of you reading. How long he is able to do that will determine both how long he is here and whether this approach is cutting edge or a poorly-calculated gamble.
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One more Dart thought
One of the aspects of the Dart saga that I found interesting is why he left USC. Dart saw the field as a true freshman at a premier Power Five program. He might have started nine of the 12 games if not for the knee injury. Does that sound like a guy who needs to improve his situation? On the surface, of course not. But Dart was swallowed up by the business that is modern college football free agency. USC hired Lincoln Riley and Riley wanted his own guy as his signal caller, so he coaxed the uber-talented Caleb Williams to transfer from Oklahoma. That’s a tough situation for Dart. It’s not even a ‘well, stay in there and compete for the job. Stick it out, ya weak Gen-Z diva. Kids these days don’t want to face adversity,’ type of deal. Riley taking the gig and immediately recruiting a guy he coached at his last job to come play in Los Angeles quelled any notion of a legitimate quarterback competition. Williams played two games for Oklahoma and somehow had ESPN debating his Heisman chances. It’s not like it was because of how Dart played or his talent level.
The way it was described to me was “if any other coach took the USC job, they would have kept Dart.” That’s a tough situation to handle as a teenage freshman who saw immediate success at his first school of choice. He likely made some close friends while he was there, like any other college kid. I wonder if he draws motivation from that? I realize that will sound corny to some, but it’s how a lot of athletes are wired. It’s not like Ole Miss is getting a 22-year-old who either didn’t work out at his last place is or a G-5 guy looking to level up in his final year of eligibility. In a way, the Rebels are getting a talented young player that got the short end of the stick.
I am curious to hear that part of the Jaxson Dart story.
Ole Miss Hoops goes 2-1 in season-defining week
How can a .500 team with no postseason aspirations have a season-defining week? That’s a valid question. Given the way Ole Miss performed at home against a bad Missouri team and the beating the Rebels took at Mississippi State the week prior, I wondered what the Rebels had left in the tank from a buy-in standpoint as they faced a Covid-induced three-game week this past week. Would Ole Miss fold or continue to play hard? The Rebels responded with wins over Florida and Kansas State with a loss to Arkansas in-between. It wasn’t the prettiest two wins the world, but you are starting to see this young nucleus find their way.
Daeshun Ruffin was named SEC freshman of the week after scoring 21 in the win over the Gators and 17 in the victory over Kansas State. Matthew Murrell had a tough night shooting on Saturday but impacted the game with seven rebounds and no turnovers. These two are playing better basketball. Jaemyn Brakefield leaves you wanting to see more offensively, but he guards hard and at least gives the Rebels a legitimate floor-stretching forward. We’ve talked about this team’s issues ad nausuem. It’s a brutal watch on the offensive end of the floor. It wasn’t even spectacular in the two wins. And they have two road games at Florida and LSU this week. But I am a little impressed that they haven’t rolled over and continue to defend with effort on a nightly basis. That’s not terribly common with young players when things aren’t going well. Ole Miss has pieces to build around for next year. This staff has to do a better job of building around them via the transfer portal. And yes, it will be done through the portal. They can’t make the same mistake in taking the same number of high school kids next year that they did this past year. Whether this coaching staff is able to do that will ultimately determine their fate.
There’s also a lot of season left. Maybe a bottoming out is looming and another staff is tasked with doing the aforementioned building. But there are real pieces to build around and the fact that Ole Miss hasn’t mailed it in is admirable.
A Bengals-Rams Super Bowl
The Super Bowl is set. I could’ve easily bought the idea of one of the teams getting there but certainly not the other. How’d it happen?
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals trailed 21-3 with two minutes remaining in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs. A little over 100 seconds later, the Chiefs were three feet away from making that a 28-10 deficit while also getting the football after halftime. Cincinnati won the football game 27-24. This was one of the most shocking playoff results of the last five years, and it isn’t because I thought Cincinnati had no chance. I just couldn’t believe the way the game pivoted the way it did. The Chiefs had 292 yards of offense in the first half. They scored touchdowns on each of their first three possessions and were a yard away from making it four touchdowns in four possessions. Eli Apple’s stop of Tyreek Hill on a swing pass at the goal line was the most significant play of the game. It turned a potential rout into a game that at least somewhat still hung in the balance in the second half. Speaking of that second half, the best quarterback in football and the most electrifying offense in football produced 83 total yards and three points in seven possessions as they watched their lead and season wither away.
The Bengals defense deserves the bulk of the credit for an incredible turnaround, but I cannot help but admire the Joe Burrow story. He was 23-38 for 250 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He was good. But, to me, the most invaluable thing he brings is his infectious irrational confidence that seems to spread to the other 52 guys that take the field alongside him. Less than two years ago, you had media personalities suggesting Burrow pull an Eli Manning and refuse to be drafted by the Bengals. The Bengals are one of the cheapest, poorly run franchises in the NFL. They don’t even have a full-sized indoor practice facility. Burrow has them in the Super Bowl in his second year in the NFL after a brutal knee injury during his rookie year. It’s a wild story. I am not sure how to tangibly quantify what it is about Burrow, but the guy is a superstar in every sense of the word.
The Rams came back to beat the 49ers, 20-17. San Francisco held a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter and had two horrific possessions in a row, dropped an interception and blew the lead. I thought San Francisco would win a close game, but this result is hardly surprising. Los Angeles had the better quarterback and simply played better when it mattered. Matthew Stafford is proving that his first decade in the NFL and the lack of playoff success that accompanied it was much more of a Lions issue than a Stafford issue. Los Angeles went all-in to play in and win a Super Bowl in their own building this year. To their credit, they’ve gotten to the precipice of that goal and are one win away. But the guy standing in their way is a bad, bad man.
On the horizon
Week of newsletters with golf, football, hoops and whatever else pops up
Two more podcasts, including a Mailbag Friday podcast to end the week.
I have a couple of feature stories in the works that will hopefully be ready within the next couple of weeks.
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by hitting the subscribe button below. It is free.