The final nail in the coffin
Ole Miss drops two to MSU to all but end its postseason chances + spring football thoughts
We’ve got a new podcast out with Collin Brister on Ole Miss’ series loss to Mississippi State, why it felt like the final nail in the coffin, the anatomy of this disastrous 2022 campaign and Mike Bianco’s legacy. You can check that here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got that, some spring football and more to get to today.
Series loss to MSU all but dashes Rebels’ postseason hopes
Ole Miss’ loss to Mississippi State felt like the final nail in the coffin for this disastrous 2022 season. The Rebels are now 6-12 in SEC play and would need to go 8-4 in their final 12 games to have a realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Ole Miss has nine total wins since March 13. It’s not happening.
The weekend served as confirmation of a few things. On the heels of a lethargic and embarrassing 13-3 midweek loss to Southeast Missouri State last Tuesday, Collin and I did a podcast that dropped on Thursday morning. This Ole Miss team was the sole subject of the hour-long discussion, but we didn’t really talk about much actual baseball at all. We discussed the utter lifelessness of a team with its season pushed to the brink, wondering how the group could take the field with that kind of lethargy with everything on the line. We pondered whether the Rebels had quit and waived the white flag in the midst of the most trying point of their season. We pointed out that it would soon be found whether the team had quit with the Bulldogs coming into town. Mississippi State isn’t a good baseball team, but Bulldogs fight and play with a sense of relentlessness the Ole Miss program has lacked at times in the past. Hell, it’s almost the only explanation for why Mississippi State is now 18-4 against the Rebels since 2016, is 8-1 in Oxford and has five Super Regional appearances and three College World Series trips over that span. The Rebels, by comparison, have two Super Regional appearances and no Omaha trips. You can’t really argue it’s a wide talent gap, particularly not over that specific timespan.
In a way, this Ole Miss team has embodied that, too. These Rebels haven’t exactly thrown their best punch with their back up against the wall.
But this weekend didn’t actually turn out to be about that at all. Ole Miss didn’t quit. It fought in all three games. Dylan DeLucia put together a heroic complete game in the Thursday win. Ole Miss took a lead in game two and fought back to tie the rubber game in the ninth. Again, the fight was there. This weekend was a final confirmation that this simply is not a good baseball team.
The Rebels don’t play well in any of the three phases of the game to win consistently in the Southeastern Conference. The starting pitching has struggled to provide length. The bullpen has struggled to find concrete roles and has been unable to preserve slim leads. The defense is inexplicably atrocious. The offense is completely smoke and mirrors because it is entirely reliant on the long ball to score runs. Chase Parham pointed out in his Sunday column that 55 of the team’s 107 runs scored in SEC play (51 percent) have come via the home run. The 2021 offense had just 33 percent of its runs come via home run. It’s basically the same lineup. I cannot explain why this iteration is completely unable to move the ball within the ballpark. I have no clue how this same group that led the SEC in on-base percentage in conference games last year ranks 2nd to last this year — and has struck out 201 times with just just 62 walks.
We could dive into the minutia of each game, managerial decisions, key at-bats and whatever else like we normally do in this space, but doesn’t feel moot at this point? I mean, didn’t this series look identical to the series loss against South Carolina? And really, it was pretty similar to the Kentucky series, except the offense did enough in game three to escape with a series win. I guess Alabama is the exception given the miffing decision not to start DeLucia, but you get the point. Here is the general blueprint:
Game 1: Ridiculous Dylan Delucia effort to take the opener.
Game 2: A lack of starting pitching length — though not a terrible performance and enough to give the team a chance to win the game — puts pressure on the bullpen.
Game 2: The offense is unable to take control of the series against a vulnerable game two opposing starter despite ample opportunity. Ole Miss was up 4-1 after four innings in game two and it felt like it should’ve been 7-1. The Rebels homered off Bulldogs starter Preston Johnson three consecutive times to start the game, but had Tim Elko and Kemp Alderman strikeout back-to-back with men on base on two separate occasions in the 2nd and 4th innings. The Kentucky game 2 starter had like a six ERA in SEC play. Both he and South Carolina’s game 2 set career highs for length in a game against the Rebels.
Game 2: the bullpen isn’t able to cover the lack of length from the starter, folds and puts Ole Miss behind in the middle innings.
Game 2: The Ole Miss offense fights back late, but key unproductive at bats with men on base cause it to fall just short.
Game 3: Ole Miss falls behind early in the game. Opponent’s game three starter looks like the best version of himself for the first five innings.
Game 3: See point No. 5.
(Jacob Gonzalez hit the two-run shot to tie the game in the 9th inning on Saturday. No one else got on base for the rest of the game.)
Rinse, repeat.
This team is what it is, as head-scratching as that may be. The Rebels didn’t quit. They simply weren’t good enough to win. And though the effort and focus level has varied at times, the previous revelation has been the constant driving force behind this stunning collapse and will be what ultimately bring the season to a premature end.
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This series loss brought the bigger picture into focus
This weekend also felt like the end of the Mike Bianco era at Ole Miss. Barring some sort of unlikely turnaround that would rival the current collapse unfolding in terms of shock value, the program will come under new leadership in the coming months. Perhaps it’s fitting that the final metaphorical nail in the coffin came against the Bulldogs. Over the last eight years, Mississippi State has repeatedly reminded Ole Miss and its fans that the two programs aren’t close to equal, and that there is a culture and a mindset needed to take a program from good to flirting with great. That culture is one that’s woven by a level of fortitude and a playing with visible edge that Ole Miss simply hasn’t had. It doesn’t mean that Bianco has built a bad program. That isn’t true at all. But it is clear that it has plateaued.
In sports and entertainment, plateau usually leads to staleness, and staleness leads to apathy. That is certainly the case here. I wasn’t in Oxford this past weekend, and I realize I am possibly unwisely judging this next conclusion off my social media mentions and reading Rebel Grove message board commentary, but I present this thought: this was the Oxford and Ole Miss’ biggest spring weekend. The annual Double Decker Festival was held for the first time in three years. The football team had its spring game. In-between The Square and Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, the baseball team lost to a series to its in-state rival for the 6th consecutive year. Yet, the reaction from fans felt more like apathy than anger. It was like an obvious conclusion was reached despite Mississippi State being just one game ahead in the SEC West standings with an RPI in the mid-80s and a plethora of its own flaws to work through. But the outcome almost felt certain before the series started. I find that at least somewhat telling.
This season is a failure and a blemish on Bianco’s resumé. Outside of a miraculous run, it feels like a change is imminent, and that is okay. But it is worth noting that his 22-year career is far from a failure. That is a long time to last at any place in major college athletics. He made the Rebels a relevant, competitive college baseball program despite scholarship limitations and little prior history. There will be more time to discuss his legacy and what comes next, but if this season continues to spiral, his successes shouldn’t get drowned out by a somber final chapter.
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Around the SEC
Let’s have a look at what happened around the league.
Tennessee swept Florida in Gainesville - The Vols are 17-1 in SEC play. That is both unprecedented and mind boggling. The Gators are a disappointing 6-12 and lost ace Hunter Barco indefinitely to an injury. Florida and Ole Miss are the two most disappointing teams in the conference and maybe the country.
LSU swept Missouri - I am not sure how good LSU actually is, but the Tigers are 10-8 in the league with a scary lineup. It wouldn’t shock me if they went on a run over the final four weekends and ended up as a top-8 national seed or close to it. I am not sure if I am still allowed to call Mizzou scrappy at 5-13.
Auburn swept South Carolina - Butch Thompson has the Tigers at 11-7 and great position to host. Given where the program was last year, that’s one hell of a roster rebuild and coaching job. Thompson makes $570,000 per year. I say that for absolutely no reason at all. South Carolina stinks. Who did the Gamecocks play the weekend prior?
Vanderbilt took two against Kentucky - The Commodores will probably end up as a pain in the ass two seed somewhere. Kentucky is not good.
Texas A&M took two from Arkansas - Don’t look now but Jim Schlossnagle’s Aggies are 10-8 in the league. That’s one hell of a series win. He is doing a remarkable coaching job. Arkansas is fine. Winning on the road is tough.
Georgia took two at Alabama - I can’t quite figure either one of these clubs out. I think Georgia ends up as a host. It looks like it avoided losing ace Jonathan Cannon for a significant amount of time, which is good. I think Alabama is safe bet for the NCAA Tournament still.
Ole Miss had its spring game over the weekend
I covered the final two years of the Hugh Freeze era and the Matt Luke era in its entirety. I never covered a spring game with as much buzz as the one on Saturday had. In terms of results, conclusions and forming concrete opinions, spring games are largely overrated. You don’t really see much of the playbook. A handful of guys are always hurt and don’t play. Anyone that tries to sell you on some previous uncertainty being concrete after a glorified scrimmage is likely clueless and full of it.
What I do believe you can gain from a spring game is the temperature of interest and relevance in to a program. I remember debating whether I was bored enough to count the fans in the stands at the 2018 spring game. It was dreary and lifeless. Saturday appeared to be neither. Make no mistake about it: Ole Miss is a nationally relevant football program right now and the spring game served as evidence of that. The entire weekend looked like an event people wanted to be at.
Coming off a 10-win season obviously helps, but I think Kiffin has done a pretty incredible job of stamping a fun and exciting brand on this Ole Miss program in a short amount of time. Being relevant is half the battle in this sport and the Rebels are certainly that.
As far as takeaways go:
Dart vs Altmyer
Of course the biggest storyline was the two quarterbacks. I think it’s now clear that Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmyer are in a legitimate and open quarterback competition that is far from decided. By all accounts, Altmyer had a better spring. He was more consistent in taking care of the football, made fewer mistakes and looked like a guy poised to run the offense efficiently. Dart showed flashes of the tantalizing athleticism and improvisation that made him a highly-touted prospect, but the mistakes added up. Kiffin had a telling quote regarding Jaxson Dart’s struggles in the spring game.
“I thought he was trying to win the job instead of just playing quarterback,” Kiffin said. “Forcing balls and just not being very consistent. We talked to him at the half about calming down and taking it one play at a time.”
Dart went 11-30 for 166 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He rushed 16 times for 66 yards. Altmyer was 9-22 for 182 yards. He carried it five times for 77 yards and two scores.
What to make of it? I am not sure. Dart is still new to the system and that has clearly hurt him a bit in the spring. Outside of that, I think there is still much to be decided. I think the one certainty is that Altmyer is absolutely a candidate to start the Rebels’ season opener and his chances of winning and holding onto the job shouldn’t be discounted.
2. Kiffin pleased with defensive line depth
Lane Kiffin said afterward that he thinks the defensive line may be the strength of the defense. I doubt he came to that conclusion after a single scrimmage, but it is a good sign that he is pleased with it. That is where the roster was most lacking when Kiffin and this staff took over the program. Depth on both lines takes time to build and the fact that the Rebels have SEC-level depth on the defensive line heading into year three is a testament to Kiffin’s roster building.
On the horizon
Spring recap, recruiting pod with Weldon Rotenberg
NFL Draft preview pod.
Week full of newsletters with football, golf and whatever else pops up.
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