The case for Jack Dougherty on Fridays
Some UCF series thoughts, rotation shakeup, Graham injury and Keith Carter extended
Hope everyone is well. We have a new podcast out with Collin Brister discussing Ole Miss’s series win at UCF in Orlando, some injury news, a rotation shakeup and more. You can check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got much of the same and more to discuss today.
Ole Miss takes two of three from UCF
The Rebels passed their only real nonconference road test over the weekend as they took a series at a UCF team that I think will be a two or three seed in a regional this year. I thought the Knights were pretty impressive on the mound. Their offense, coming into weekend, had blasted opponents through seven games despite scoring just two runs in the final 18 innings of this series. Ole Miss played its first pair of one-run games this season and bludgeoned the Knights’ Sunday pitching.
I thought the story of the weekend, both good and bad, was Ole Miss’s pitching staff. Let’s start there.
Diamond finds trouble in the fifth
Game one featured an inflection point of sorts for Friday night starter Derek Diamond. He gave up a run in each of the first two innings, but prevented things from snowballing on both occasions. The fifth inning, however, proved to be his demise, and it unfolded in a similar fashion to so many of Diamond’s previous points of struggle. He issued a leadoff walk before inducing a popup and a strikeout. At just 75 pitches, it appeared he was going to a see a sixth inning and put together an outing that resembled one expected from an anchor of a pitching staff. Until it didn’t.
He gave up a single in a 1-2 count and then hung a 1-0 slider that Nick Romano hit to Universal Studios for a three-run shot. The 3-2 lead Ole Miss secured was gone. Diamond gave up a double to the next hitter and his day was done. Diamond was one-strike away from five innings of two-run baseball and was a spectator just seven pitches later as his team trailed 5-3. Diamond was ultimately charged for six runs as that double in his final batter faced crossed the plate.
This has been the hurdle Diamond has yet to consistently leap over: mitigating damage when things begin to go awry. And while it’s unfair to read too much into one outing, Diamond hasn’t shown a whole lot to lead anyone to believe that he is equipped to get outs at the rate required on Friday nights in the SEC. Truthfully, he’s looked like more of a Sunday starter, which might end up being his role — and that’s not a bad thing. I think he would thrive there.
Diamond has had his fair share of strikeouts in his three starts. He had seven in this game, but as Chase Parham astutely pointed out to me, he doesn’t really have a wipeout pitch to go to when he’s ahead in counts. I think that is partially why things seem to spiral for him quickly. He sometimes struggles put away hitters, and when that happens, good hitters eventually make him pay for it. Bianco already announced a rotation shakeup. We can get to that in a minute. Diamond has hardly terrible, but hasn’t been good enough to instill confidence that he will give Ole Miss a chance on Friday nights in SEC play.
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The bullpen was tremendous
Outside of Diamond’s early exit and a quick hook for Drew McDaniel on Sunday, the rest of the Ole Miss pitching staff was tremendous throughout the weekend. It largely came from newcomers, too.
The rest of the pitching staff outside of Diamond: 24.2 IP, 14 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 10 BB. It average 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings and UCF hitters slashed 169/.250/.193. That is tremendous work.
The Ole Miss bullpen covered 14.1 of those innings. Eleven of them were eaten up by newcomers. Riley Maddox four important outs to bridge the game to Brandon Johnson on Friday. Mason Nichols was dominant in 2.1 innings of relief of John Gaddis and gave Ole Miss a chance in a Saturday game that it didn’t really deserve to win. Dylan Delucia might have been the most dominant of all of them in four innings of scoreless relief on Sunday in a game that devolved into a rout. He told Jack Dougherty to warm up the bus, and that he was finishing the game himself by allowing just one base runner over those four innings with six strikeouts and zero walks.
A couple of things are clear about the bullpen after three weekends:
Bianco trusts the freshmen. The first arm he went to was Maddox, a guy who entered that Friday game having thrown 39 strikes in 48 total pitches. The umpire refused to give Maddox the outside corner, but he located pitch after pitch according to plan. He and Nichols were also fearless. The moment wasn’t too big for them. The road is going to get much tougher than playing in front of a couple thousand fans at UCF, but the fact that both of them looked completely in control the entire time is important.
The same goes for Hunter Elliott, despite the two walks in the 12th he issued that allowed the game-winning run to score. I thought Elliott pitched pretty well. He was put in a tough situation. Ole Miss didn’t deserve to win that game with the way it performed at the plate. Elliott just happened to be the first pitcher to make a mistake. It happens. Bianco trusts these young pitchers and I think it is part of a concerted effort to enter SEC play with four or five arms he absolutely trusts — as opposed to last year when he had nine guys that he thought could potentially depend on in a limited sample size and ended up scrambling to find anyone to lean on by mid-April.
Delucia’s outing was encouraging after a couple of shaky appearances to start the year. Delucia’s stuff is strong. That breaking ball is a wipeout pitch and the fastball velocity has hovered in the low 90s. That is good enough to get anyone out.
Jackson Kimbrell entered the game with the bases loaded with one out in the third inning on Sunday. At the time, Ole Miss nursed a 2-1 lead. He induced a ground ball for an inning-ending double play and followed that up with two scoreless frames. On a pitching staff devoid of left-handed options, Kimbrell finding a role and succeeding is important for the ceiling of this team. When Kimbrell struggles, it’s usually sparked by walks. He’s issued just one in two outings this season, and that came on Sunday in a game in which the home plate umpire could’ve been sponsored by a contact lens company.
Saturday: an offensive anomaly. Ole Miss hopes it wasn’t on the mound
Until Ole Miss strings together multiple games of ineptitude on offense, I have a hard time putting much stock into Saturday’s 12-inning shutout. UCF’s Connor Staine was really, really good. There isn’t much else to say about it. I didn’t know UCF had a Saturday guy that sat 95-98 with a hammer of a breaking ball. Where Ole Miss really met its demise was letting Chase Centala get after them the way he did. The right-hander relieved Staine in the eighth and struck out six. His slider looked much like his fastball out of his hand and it seemed like the Rebels had trouble deciphering between the two. He threw five scoreless. Those two were awesome and goaded Ole Miss into pressing at the plate. The Rebels didn’t deserve to win that game.
What Ole Miss certainly hopes wasn’t an anomaly was Gaddis matching Staine’s gem pitch-for-pitch. Gaddis scattered four hits over seven shutout innings. He struck out eight and didn’t walk anyone. Gaddis only reached a three-ball count three times. He hasn’t walked anyone since his Ole Miss debut. This was the scouting report on the senior left-hander to a tee. He’s a mature pitcher that peppers the edges of the strike zone and rarely makes a fatal mistake. He might be the most important pitcher on the roster given the questions that loom over the two starting slots between him. Ole Miss can’t afford for him to suck, and he’s done the polar opposite of that so far. He has been as impressive as advertised.
Graham to miss four weeks with fractured wrist
Mike Bianco announced on Monday on SportsTalk Mississippi that left fielder Kevin Graham will miss four weeks with a wrist fracture that will require surgery. Graham will have the procedure done on Wednesday. It occurred in the 10th inning of Saturday’s loss when Graham hit a ground ball to third base. The third baseman made an errant throw that pulled the first baseman off the bag and induced an awkward arrival to the base for Graham. He tripped and braced the fall with his right wrist.
This is a significant blow for Ole Miss. Graham is a core piece of the lineup and was off to a ridiculously productive start to the 2022 season. But this is where the depth the depth — that we’ve discussed as a challenge — becomes a luxury. We’ve opined and analyzed how Bianco will disperse at-bats for a lineup that is legitimately 12-deep and the difficulty in juggling all of the pieces. It’s obviously a good problem to have and is highlighted in a scenario like this. Losing Graham is tough. But Ole Miss has reinforcements. Alderman, Leatherwood and Harris can all play corner outfield slots if needed. Reagan Burford playing third base slides Justin Bench into the outfield and creates one less spot to fill out there. The Rebels will be fine. Of course they are a better team with Graham in the lineup, but if there was a lineup in college baseball built to withstand the absence of a key middle-of-the-order piece, it is this one.
It’s also fortunate that this occurred in March rather than May, and Ole Miss scoring nine runs in its first game without Graham was certainly a statement.
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So, about that rotation
Bianco was apparently in a news-breaking mood on Monday. He also told SportsTalk that he’s shaking up the rotation this weekend against Oral Roberts. Gaddis will start Friday, Diamond on Saturday and the Rebels will go TBA on Sunday.
I have to admit I am surprised at the timing of this move and how it was executed. I am not questioning it —just surprised. Some thoughts:
If there is an aspect of this that I will question, it’s moving Gaddis to Friday, and it has little to do with this weekend. Ole Miss should handle Oral Roberts without much issue. Beyond that, as the Rebels enter SEC play next week, I am curious if Bianco is messing up a good thing. Fridays are different than Saturdays in the SEC. I am not even sure how to further articulate that, but they just are. Remember the insane season Christian Trent put together as the Saturday guy on the Omaha team in 2014? Go look at his numbers as the Friday starter in 2015. His ERA was 3.74 compared to 2.05 in 2014. Like most all of you, I find win-loss record to be a stupid stat to use when evaluating pitchers, but I do think it offers some context in this case. Trent was 9-0 in 2014 and 7-7 in 2015. Opponent batting average was 60 percentage points higher in 2015 than in 2014.
The same goes for Doug Nikhazy. The handful of times he looked human in his Ole Miss career were in the few Friday starts he made. The point is that I think Gaddis is tailormade to be Ole Miss’s No.2 with the way he pitches and how he works. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an ace. This could be a raging success. Again, I am not questioning Bianco, I am just offering a thought We won’t know for a few weeks. I just wonder if it’s messing up a good thing. This could also be temporary. I will elaborate on that more in a minute.
Mike Bianco’s quick hook of Drew McDaniel in the third inning on Sunday was (potentially) a glimpse at a coach realizing exactly what a player is and that it isn’t going to change. I think the announcement to go TBA this Sunday only confirms that. McDaniel wasn’t terrible. His defense didn’t help him a ton either. The Alderman error on a routine fly ball in left field led to a run, but he also only threw 36 strikes on 62 pitches, and did any of you watching love his chances of escaping that bases loaded jam without UCF hanging a crooked number? Me neither. I don’t know what McDaniel’s role on this team will be. Perhaps it’s a midweek starter and a reserve long relief option. He’s struggled with confidence and command. But what is clear is that Bianco wants to have his ducks in a row by next weekend when the team travels to Auburn. It’s also clear that he rightly views this rotation as the weak point of the team.
Diamond going to Saturday is interesting. I think it will help him a bit and relieve some pressure, but I can’t shake the feeling that neither Diamond on Saturday nor Gaddis on Friday is a permanent solution.
The case for Dougherty on Friday nights
Here’s a good question: Do you recall who didn’t pitch over the weekend? Yes, that is right. Jack Dougherty, who might be Ole Miss’s best pitcher.
He’s had two appearances on the year that were 11 days apart and spanned a combined five innings. Dougherty has compiled 12 strikeouts and zero walks in those five innings. While it might seem like a positive that Ole Miss went on the road and won a series against a quality opponent without using arguably their best arm, is that really the point? Particularly once the Rebels get to SEC play, isn’t that leaving value on the shelf? I can’t imagine that sat well with Bianco given how the front and back end of his starting rotation fared. You get where I am going with this: doesn’t this feel like this road leads to Dougherty starting on Friday night? I think it does. Right now, if you asked yourself who starts for Ole Miss in game one of a Super Regional, what’s your answer? Johnson and Gaddis are acceptable answers too, but my counter argument is that they already seemingly have roles. What’s Jack Dougherty’s role right now? Can you define it? It’s the first week of March, so at the risk of getting carried away after 1/5 of the season, I digress. But I am not sure if that question becomes any less valid in a month if Dougherty remains out of the rotation.
I will admit I have never been accused of being smart, but let’s pretend I am a genius and this plays out like I just outlined: don’t you think Dougherty-Gaddis-Diamond is a much stronger rotation than any other combination? I’ll listen to other ones, but I think Doughtery has the swing-and-miss stuff, coupled with a bit of that ‘f*ck you’ mentality you need on Friday nights. I mean hell, he acted as if the poor kids in the Louisiana-Monroe lineup had shot his pet. He was refused to flinch or step off the rubber in a a 6-2 midweek game. I already made my case for Gaddis on Saturday and Derek Diamond is more than capable of providing Ole Miss an advantage on Sunday.
This also leaves the bullpen as it currently stands, essentially unchanged. That seems like a good thing on the heels of the weekend it just had.
I rest my case. It may not end up playing out like this, but there is a compelling argument to be made that it should.
Midweek watch:
Ole Miss had its first of two midweek games cancelled due to inclement weather. The Rebels were set to play Memphis on Tuesday night. Jack Washburn was slated to start. Ole Miss has Alcorn State on Wednesday. Perhaps Washburn starts starts that game instead. But if someone else does, you might have a pretty strong idea of who will get this week’s Sunday start. Washburn has been pretty good despite his strike rate being lower than what you might like to see. He wastes pitches and has walked guys a bit too often, but that breaking ball plays and the fastball has great life. He’s also a potential option on the weekend. But what makes the Washburn case interesting is that he’s a reliever trying to shake a reliever’s mentality and mold into a starter. One could ask if that’s needed given his stuff, more than adequate velocity and prior experience, but again, I digress.
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Ole Miss extends Carter
*Keith Carter had his contract extended last week. I wrote about it last week in a newsletter I wasn’t able to publish. Here are some thoughts on that below.*
Ole Miss announced last week that Athletics Director Keith Carter’s contract had been rolled back to a four-year deal, the maximum allowed under Mississippi state law, and that his annual salary was bumped to $1.1 million. This was a no brainer. I feel confident in saying Carter’s current approval rating is as high as anyone that has held the position in at least the last 20 years. The football program is coming off the heels of a 10-2 season with a head coach that’s made the Rebels nationally relevant. Lane Kiffin was Carter’s first major hire. And while the risk of hiring Kiffin was pretty low given what the majority of the fan base wanted at the time, Carter deserves credit for sensing that the football program needed a splash of energy, and he found arguably the perfect guy to deliver that. People were drinking beer in The Pavilion on a Monday morning during finals week, one week after Elijah Moore’s dog pee celebration. The energy around the program felt different in a single day.
Ole Miss’s non-revenue sports have excelled under Carter. Women’s Golf won a national title. The softball team went to a regional and the soccer team has made back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances. Coach Yo and the Women’s hoops teams are in the middle of a remarkable turnaround. Ole Miss has improved its efforts to make former players come back to campus and be around their respective programs. A new fundraising campaign kicked off. And though Carter can’t technically have any real involvement in NIL collectives, Ole Miss is on par or ahead of a lot of schools in that regard. Life is good for Keith Carter.
It could also soon get more complicated. Kermit Davis and the men’s basketball are essentially just playing out the string of what’s left of this season. While I believe Davis will ultimately get one more year to fix this, it’s no guarantee. There’s an apathy issue with the basketball program. Fans voiced their opinion on it via empty seats. It’s a tough product to watch. The roster evaluations have been putrid. The next nine months are crucial ones for the future of that program.
Then, there is baseball. Ole Miss has gotten off to as good of a start as one could possibly imagine. The offense has bludgeoned inferior opponents. Young pitchers are starting to emerge on a pitching staff that was thought to be the area that might hold this team back. But we all know how this will be decided. Ole Miss needs to make the College World Series this season for Mike Bianco to feel good about his chances to return as head coach next year. Last year’s flirtation with the LSU job, coupled with postseason shortcomings that have given the illusion of a program plateau have made this season Omaha or bust. If it turns out to be a bust, how does Carter handle it? Who does he hire?
Things could get more complication for Carter over the next 12 months. Men in his position are judged by how they navigate difficult situations, who they hire and how they evaluate those hires. Carter has proven to this point to be a shrewd decision maker who makes sound, logical decisions. But the next 12 months could test his batting average in that regard. How he handles it will be fascinating to watch.
On the horizon
A couple more newsletters on baseball, basketball, Kermit Davis’s future and whatever else might arise
Midweek baseball podcast, plus Mailbag Friday. Submit your questions now.
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