Seven things to look for in the Egg Bowl
A closer look at Will Rogers and Mississippi State and some things to ponder ahead of tomorrow's game
Hope everyone is having a good Wednesday. We have a new podcast out with my former radio partner Brian Hadad talking all things Egg Bowl, from Will Rogers’ maturation, what’s made this air raid scheme finally gel, the Bulldogs’ run defense and more. LB’s Greg brought the show home with some pre-Thanksgiving picks. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got a lot of Egg Bowl stuff to get today.
MSU is playing as well as anyone in the SEC
For the second year in a row, Mike Leach has his team playing unrecognizably better in the second half of the season than the first. This time, the quarterback appears to have reached another level. Will Rogers has catalyzed the Bulldogs' success over the last six weeks. Leach has preached often about repetition over the last 18 months, emphatic that is offense will work and that it just takes more time for it to sink in than other system. Rogers has made him look prophetic. He’s figured out this scheme, what to look for and what it requires, particularly when it comes to the intermediate throws and fitting the ball into tighter windows. He’s incredibly effective against the blitz and will eventually make the right decision when given time to throw and a clean pocket. Mississippi State has gotten collectively better around Rogers, but he is the overarching reason for their success.
Some Rogers numbers:
In the month of November, Rogers is 108-137 (78.%) for 1,223 years with 15 touchdowns and one interception.
He’s thrown 15 touchdowns in his last 11 quarters of football.
He’s only thrown one interception in his last 16 quarters.
Completion percentage by game over his last four: 82.4, 80, 75, 92.3
You get the picture. He’s a different quarterback than Ole Miss faced last November. It’s interesting to think about Rogers through the lens of the last 12 months. Last year, he was seen as a fill-in for an underwhelming grad transfer experiment (who also got hurt) in K.J. Costello, and likely just a placeholder to bide Leach time to recruit his preferred quarterback to run this system. Many thought it would be true freshman Sawyer Robertson — Leach’s first big time recruiting land. Mississippi State even brought in a pair of transfers along with Robertson to push Rogers for the starting job during spring practice and fall camp. Now, he is the undisputed future of the program and the face of Leach’s offense for at least the next two seasons. It’s crazy to think how things can change so drastically, and he certainly drove that change.
The Bulldogs’ run defense is stout
Ole Miss needs to run the football well if it wishes to have success in this game and Mississippi State poses a pretty tough challenge on that front. Mississippi State has the third best run defense in the conference behind Alabama and Georgia. The Bulldogs allow just over 95 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. Those three defenses are the only ones in the conference to allow fewer than 100 yards rushing per game. Some of that is skewed by ridiculously good outputs against Vanderbilt, Tennessee State and NC State. Arkansas ran for 202, Alabama ran for 195 and Texas A&M netted 162 yards on the ground. They have been susceptible against better rushing attacks, but are still pretty tough against the run.
One area in which the Bulldogs have struggled is generating a consistent pass rush without blitzing. Ole Miss will need to run it to sustain drives, remain balanced and stay ahead of the sticks, but there is opportunity to be had in the passing game, particularly over the middle of the field against a pair of average safeties. Those throws, especially the slant, have been Corral’s best and most accurate throws this season.
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Reports of Costa suspended
Multiple outlets reported yesterday that freshman kicker Caden Costa was suspended for a failed PED test. Ole Miss has neither confirmed nor denied this. I am no longer a reporter, but I am close to 100 percent certain this is true. I do not know what the appeals process is like for these things or if that has already happened. I have heard varying things on that. As best as I can gather from the NCAA handbook, a failed PED test is year-long suspension. If that’s the case, I am not sure how you can justify keeping a suspended kicker on scholarship, so that could be a long term issue for the Rebels, which is a shame for them and the kid because Costa has been as good as anyone in the country this season and rectified an issue that killed the Rebels over the previous two seasons.
As it pertains to tomorrow night, well, I don’t suppose an Egg Bowl has ever come down to kicker shenanigans, so no big deal, right? In all seriousness, this could be a pretty tough issue for Ole Miss. It’ll certainly affect fourth-down decision making. You guys don’t need me to tell you this because you’ve watched it play out for two season now, but fourth downs have drastically swung games in and against Ole Miss’s favor, and with how badly the offense has struggled in the red zone, not having a reliable kicking option is.. well.. to use an old word I made part of my brand on radio.. suboptimal.
Cale Nation is the backup kicker to my knowledge. I was told Land Gebhart is no longer on the roster. Nation kicked the first PAT of the season against Louisville and and missed. He hasn’t seen the field since.
So, hold on to you butts, and maybe ditch the water in your bourbon while watching.
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7 things I am watching for in this game
Can Ole Miss get to Rogers without blitzing? That’s been the key to neutralizing this air raid attack. Sam Williams and Cedric Johnson have developed in to a formidable duo and given the Rebels a pass rush element they haven’t had on defense since Marquis Haynes departed the program. When Ole Miss does blitz, it must pick its spots effectively and get home, because Rogers and the Bulldog receivers will gash the Rebels if they don’t. There is a huge difference between blitzing and getting to the quarterback. Ask any defensive coordinator that’s ever been fired. In other words, ask any defensive coordinator. Mississippi State left tackle Charles Cross is a hell of a football player and likely a top-15 NFL Draft pick. I am curious how Williams is moved around in this game. Scott Lashley is the right tackle and has been a bit of an adventure. I would imagine D.J. Durkin tries to make life very difficult on Lashley tomorrow night.
How much tempo will Ole Miss use on offense? I think it’s going to have to be a balancing act. State’s offense can go fast if it wants to, but it can also control the ball, eat up a lot of clock and put together long, methodical drives. Ole Miss can ill-afford to fizzle out quickly on offense for three or four drives in a row using tempo and put its defense back out onto the field on short rest. That’s a terrible formula for the Rebels. I think they can exploit some things using tempo, but I think part of it will depend on how well they are running the football. I am curious to see how efficient Ole Miss is in using it.
How much will Matt Corral factor into the running game? I doubt he has 30 carries again, but he is healthier than he has been at any point over the last month. Will Lane Kiffin and Jeff Lebby be a little more liberal in how they use him in the running game, similar to what what we saw earlier in the year before Corral’s ankle injury? I think this could be a significant development in this game. It will help in both short-yardage situations and the red zone. Ole Miss isn’t built to win short yardage situations on third and fourth down by getting a push on the interior offensive line, and read-option concepts aren’t really effective when the quarterback isn’t a threat to pull it. Ole Miss cannot afford to settle for field goals, particular if Costa is in fact out. The Rebels are going to need to look like a different team in the red zone than the one that’s shown up the last month if it wishes to win this game.
Conversely, on defense, Ole Miss has been pretty good all year (minus the second half of the Arkansas game) about not giving up explosive plays and keeping things in front of them, particularly in pass defense. That’s also how Mississippi State moves the football — through short and intermediate passes on lengthy, 8-12 play drives. Does Ole Miss play differently in the secondary or do they rely on their usual 3-2-6 look not to break in the red zone when the field shrinks? Mississippi State has had kicking issues all season, so red zone stops will be of paramount importance.
Ole Miss killed Mississippi State on the deep ball last year. That was largely the difference in a game that was closer than most thought it would be. We haven’t seen a lot of that this year with Braylon Sanders banged up, Jonathan Mingo out for two months and Dontario Drummond primarily in the slot. Does Ole Miss try to take a few more shots deep down the field than they have the last couple of weeks?
Does Corral have a legendary performance in him to bookend his remarkable career? Sometimes, when a quarterback has elite arm talent, you’ll see them have a game in which they are locked in to a degree at which the defense is rendered hapless. We haven’t really seen that sort of game from Corral strictly from a passing standpoint, unless I am forgetting one. Vanderbilt in 2020 comes to mind, but it was Vanderbilt in 2020. Maybe it’s a combination of a few darts on deep balls and what he does with his feet, but there is a scenario in which he takes this game over and puts Ole Miss on his back one final time.
How does rain affect this game? I generally find weather to be overrated, but there is rain in the forecast around game time tomorrow evening. Does that change anything Ole Miss wants to do? I wouldn’t think too terribly much. I don’t think it affects State a ton either, unless it is a torrential downpour that makes throwing the football at all a hassle. Then we are talking about something entirely different. Mississippi State will throw it close to 60 times in this game, if there is some slight disadvantage to be had with rain during the game, I imagine it would bode worse for the Bulldogs. But again, unless it’s a monsoon, I don’t think it will have much of an effect.
This should be a fun one. It has significant short and long term implications for both programs. For Kiffin and Ole Miss, it puts a bow on a historic season and cements the Rebels place in a New Year’s Six Bowl. A loss puts Ole Miss at 9-3, a good year but a place the program has been before in a season that culminated with a somber final chapter. For Leach and Mississippi State, well, 8-4 sounds a hell of a lot better than 7-5. It puts an exclamation point on a second half of the 2021 season that could be eventually be remembered as the stretch that sparked the program’s rise under Leach. Not to mention, with what the Bulldogs have coming back next year, they’ll be a preseason top-20 team with New Year’s Six buzz. A loss means Leach is 0-2 against his arch rival, which won’t appease a fan base that puts irrational weight on this game, and he’ll have to try for his first win in the rivalry in Oxford next year. This game always carries increased significance in terms of careers and program trajectory, whether people want to admit it or not. Buckle up, it should be a wild one.
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On the horizon
Friday podcast with Weldon and Chase recapping the game
End of season wrap up podcast on Sunday with Weldon
Friday newsletter with a lot of thoughts on this game
That’s all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by hitting the subscribe button below. It is free. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.