Saturday's matchup against LSU will test Ole Miss' mental fortitude
The home stretch of the season is here as a large test looms for Ole Miss in Baton Rouge
We have finally arrived at the fun part. After seven games (in six of which Ole Miss was decidedly favored) that made it difficult to gauge how good this team is, a wild five-game stretch begins on Saturday afternoon when Ole Miss takes the field against an average but talented LSU team in Baton Rouge. Perhaps no other anecdote encapsulates the strangeness of this schedule setup more succinctly than the fact that, as the fourth Saturday in October looms, the Rebels will face their first true road test of the year. This is a game in which we will learn a great deal about the DNA of its team. We’ll learn as much about its mental fortitude as we will its ability to beat quality opponents and contend for and, though it’s still far from being real, potentially SEC Western Division title.
Let’s examine some things to watch for on Saturday.
Can Ole Miss keep its composure?
This is a game that will test the Rebels’ wits as much as it will anything else. An unproven team with a young quarterback will travel into the most hostile environment it has faced yet, and potentially, the toughest one it will play in this year (depending on the state of Arkansas and Texas A&M when those games arrive). Can Ole Miss hold it together and execute amidst 90,000 Godchauxs and Tibideauxs yelling at them with a belly full of bud heavy and that morning’s road kill? Can the offense prove to be the balanced attack it has shown signs of being? Can Ole Miss play turnover-free football and move the sticks on obvious passing situations to sustain drives?
Most importantly, what will this team do when things go awry? How will it respond to an early turnover that results in them falling into a 10-0 hole against an inferior team? And let’s not mistake this for something it isn’t: this version of LSU is not as good as Ole Miss. The Tigers feature a banged up and struggling offensive line, a running game that has almost solely relied on the feet of their quarterback and a lack of depth on the back end of its defense despite some real, NFL-level talent on the defensive line. As currently constructed, the Rebels are the more complete football team on paper. This is a game they should win if they play well, but that is a pretty big if for all of the reasons covered above. How this team reacts to its first dosage of real adversity will be fascinating to watch.
The only anecdote of evidence we have to this point is when Ole Miss was down ten points 92 seconds before halftime at Vanderbilt. To this team’s credit, it didn’t flinch. Ole Miss continued to go about its business, played better defense in the second half thanks to going to a four-man defensive front and the offense put the pedal to the metal. But with respect to the Commodores, this will be an entirely different animal, from both a talent standpoint and the type of environment the Rebels will have to navigate.
Again, Ole Miss should win this game. Whether it keeps its composure in an atmosphere like this will arguably be the most telling sign as to whether or not Rebels do indeed emerge victorious.
What will the crowd be like?
Attendance discourse usually warrants an immediate eye roll from me, mostly because of the unoriginal fodder that fills it, but I do think it matters to a certain degree on Saturday. I wasn’t at the LSU-Tennessee game, but my podcast partner Weldon Rotenberg was. He said that the stadium was not full, that Tennessee brought a ton of people and that the environment was not recognizable to any Tiger Stadium he saw growing up — the loud, raucous, borderline unhinged and goosebump-inducing scene we all think of when picturing Death Valley. Granted, it was an 11 a.m. game, and for some reason LSU fans, some media and its athletic department act as if it is a crime against humanity each time the football program is subject to an early kickoff at home. I have never really understood this. LSU is no different than any other program in the Southeastern Conference. Why in the world should it or would it be exempt from one of like three or four game-time slots on a given Saturday? Tiger Stadium is typically a great environment at night. I get it. I have been there. Cool. So is Bryant-Denny, Jordan-Hare and Kyle Field. All three of those places host 11 a.m. kickoffs. Yet, when it happens to LSU, you would think someone walked into Mike the Tiger’s exhibit and gave him the Harambe treatment. It’s utterly bizarre. Rant over.
With all of that said, I do think the crowd matters. Will the stadium be sold out? Is there enough excitement around the beginning of the Brian Kelly era in year one to consistently sell out games in a day and age in which athletic departments of all sizes are finding it harder to get people to leave their couches? I tend to think that the history of this game, combined with Ole Miss’ ranking and LSU’s road win at Florida last week will be more than enough gasoline to fuel a fiery crowd, but if the latter is the case and the stadium is similar to what it looked like (in person and on tv) against Tennessee, that will favor an Ole Miss team that lacks battle scars and has a 19-year-old playing quarterback in his first college season. Overrate that piece of the puzzle if you wish, but Dart voluntarily claimed after the Kentucky win that he’d never played on a stage or in an atmosphere like that. And Vaught-Hemingway is not the same type of environment as Tiger Stadium is. It’s no fault of his to admit this just as it isn’t his fault he’s untested in this sense. I just think it matters more than you might think. I fully anticipate Death Valley to be electric on Saturday afternoon, but the thought is worth pondering.
How will Ole Miss approach this game offensively?
It’s quite obvious that the Rebels are going to run the football a lot against a middling Tigers run defense. I am more curious to see how they approach the passing game. Do they try to settle Dart in early with some easy completions on non-obvious passing downs? Or do Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. take the approach they did against Auburn and run, run and run some more until they are forced to throw it. Ryan Buchanan made a case on the podcast this week that the strategy against Auburn possibly worked to the detriment of Dart and his confidence, while also acknowledging the importance of deploying the best strategy to win that particular football game. I think there is probably some middle ground to be had here, particularly given everything we just covered regarding Dart’s lack of experience and his propensity to make a couple of poor decisions when a play breaks down. A byproduct of the run, run and run some more strategy is the fact that Dart threw the ball predominantly on obvious passing downs last week. That leaves more opportunity for poor decisions as opposed to quick-hitting, easy completions on 1st and second down.
There’s also the possibility of this seemingly invincible Ole Miss rushing attack being met with more resistance than it has all year via a talented LSU defensive line that features B.J. Ojulari and Ali Gaye. It seems realistic that the Rebels will need to lean more heavily on the passing game at some point in this game than they have at any point this year. How does Dart handle that? Can he make enough throws to win them a game? In its simplest sense, the obvious defensive strategy from LSU is going to be to make Dart win the game for Ole Miss. Though that is easier said than done, what happens if they are successful? Will the play calling and work to Dart’s benefit or detriment? There are matchups to be one against an LSU team with average corners. How much of an impact will Jonathan Mingo and Malik Heath have? It will certainly have to be a greater one than last week — neither recorded catches. Whether or not the Ole Miss passing game can hold up enough to provide some semblance of balance, as opposed to one-dimensionality, will be a major component in determining the outcome of this game. Unless Ole Miss runs for 450 yards again. In that case, I am just some clown with a newsletter.
Will the Ole Miss defense rebound?
I imagine this week wasn’t a pleasant one for the Rebels defense in the film room. A terrible tackling performance led to a hapless Auburn running game producing over 300 yards on the ground against them. And while LSU’s running game (and their offense as a whole, for that matter) has leaned almost solely on quarterback Jayden Daniels — the team’s leading rusher and passer — the Tigers produced a 100-yard game via a running back last week. LSU’s success running the ball, coupled with Daniels finally showing a willingness to push the football down the field in the passing game, is why it won at Florida last week. If this Ole Miss run defense is similar to what it was last week, the Rebels are going to have a hard time winning this game. LSU is essentially a better version of Auburn in this sense. The Tigers have a slightly better offensive line, a more efficient runner with better vision at quarterback and a stable of receiving threats on the perimeter at receiver should the passing game get cooking.
Ole Miss has to be better against the run. It has to tackle more efficiently, take better angles in keeping Daniels confined to the pocket, or at least somewhere around it, and be stronger on the interior. It will be a long day at the office if Daniels runs wild and LSU produces another 100-yard performance from a running back. This defense has shown it can be fast, athletic and tackle well. But can this unit do that for four quarters in a game of this magnitude? We shall see.
Who is LSU?
The Tigers are a rebuilding program in year one of the Brian Kelly era. Yes, LSU obviously has more talent scattered across the field than what you’d normally picture a rebuilding program having in year one. That’s a product of being a blue blood in the sport, one that has recruited at an elite level for the past two decades. But the depth is lacking, particularly on defense. The defensive line is the strength of the defense, the linebackers have been serviceable, thanks in large part to former 5-star prospect and true freshman Harold Perkins being awesome from the time he stepped on campus, though I suppose the fact that LSU is so heavily relying on a freshman linebacker is evidence to my point about depth lacking. For as much talk as there was surrounding Ole Miss and its use of the transfer portal (rightfully so), the Tigers brought in 12 of their own in an effort to supplement the roster with talent in Kelly’s first year. To Kelly’s credit, it has worked. But that is not the approach to recruiting you’re used to seeing a program of this caliber take. This is a year about building culture, good habits and all of the other clichés you hear coaches constantly spout. To Kelly’s credit again, he’s managed to go 5-2 while starting the culture build.
Offensively, LSU has been pretty poor for most of the season. A battered offensive line has negated consistent success in the running game. Pass blocking issues, coupled with Daniels’ risk-averse approach to passing has yielded underwhelming results in the running game. As mentioned earlier, Daniels’ is the team’s leading passer and rusher. Remember Kayshon Boutte? He’s a pretty damn good receiver. And yes, he’s still at LSU, though you’d be forgiven for not having noticed. Boutte has 23 receptions through six games. He’s caught five passes or fewer in four of them. But he does have six receptions in each of the last two games. That might be a foreboding sign.
I asked LSU beat writer Brody Miller what the difference was with the offense last week in the win at Florida compared to the rest of the year. Daniels went 23-32 for 349 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers in that game. Miller pointed to that, citing that the coaching staff has struggled to instill enough confidence in Daniels to push the football down the field. On the heels of a blowout loss to Tennessee at home the week prior, it sounds like Daniels said ‘f**k it. What do I have to lose?’ and finally obliged. The results were favorable, which isn’t shocking considering that he’s got guys like Boutte and Malik Nabors to throw to. LSU has good weapons at receiver, it has simply been unable to get them the football for a myriad of reasons — a big one being Daniels’ conservative approach. For all Daniels has lacked as a passer, he doesn’t turn the football over and he is a terrific runner. Go watch the final drive of LSU’s insane one-point loss to Florida State on Labor Day Night. The Tigers marched 99 yards in 65 seconds despite completing only one pass of 14 or more yards. How they did it is still beyond me, but Daniels’ legs undoubtedly played a huge role. He is a much better runner than Auburn’s Robby Ashford.
LSU is not a good offense, but it is more than capable of beating Ole Miss if the Rebels are poor against the run.
The next time we talk, we’ll know a lot more
So here comes the home stretch. It’s a five-game game stretch that could change the trajectory of the program or become a disappointing closing act to a story that started with a great deal of promise. As I have said 100 times, probably to the point of being annoying to read, I have no clue how good this Ole Miss team is. The Rebels have shown flashes of a double-digit win contender at times, and at others has looked like a 7-5 team that benefitted from favorable scheduling. We won’t learn everything on Saturday, but I do believe we will learn a lot about the makeup of this team as well as just how talented it is. I cannot wait to watch.
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