Rippee Writes: Tuesday Scoop
Selection show rection, seed draws, pitching strategy and huge site news
A happy Tuesday morning to you all. We have a new podcast out with Collin Brister breaking down the Oxford Regional, how tough the Rebels’ draw is, the bracket as a whole and much more. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts. We have a ton to dive into today. This may be the longest newsletter in the history of newsletters, but it’s all free, so buckle up and enjoy.
Let’s roll.
Rippee Writes partners with Rebel Grove
Some of you may have seen the news, but we grew exponentially over the weekend. Rippee Writes joined Rivals, Rebel Grove and MPW Digital over the weekend. Chase Parham, Neal McCready and everyone else at Rebel Grove have been the gold standard for covering Ole Miss for over a decade now and remain ahead of the curve when it comes to creating content in new and innovative ways. It is hard to put into words how excited I am to bring this podcast and newsletter to their site. I am incredibly grateful to Chase and Neal for this opportunity. Rebel Grove has a massive audience and the idea that this newsletter and podcast that I started three months ago while eating dinner, bored and seeking a creative outlet, will be associated with a media outlet as strong and legitimate as Rebel Grove is still hard for me to wrap my head around.
I owe so many people a sincere thanks and that starts with each of you. I appreciate you subscribing, reading and listening from the beginning. Never in my wildest dreams did I believe this would turn into something so quickly. Thank you, I really mean that. Nothing is changing on the content front. We will still do newsletters and podcasts. It will just be seen by a larger audience. My first ever newsletter was entitled “cheers to the start of something great” and you people are the reason that became prophetic. So, with that said, cheers to this just still just being the beginning. I believe the best is yet to come.
Now, to the important stuff.
Ole Miss hosts regional as No. 12 national seed
The Rebels learned their postseason fate on Monday. They’ll host a regional in Oxford as the No. 12 national seed, paired with the Tuscon, Arizona regional hosted by Arizona. Ole Miss got a pretty tough draw when you look at it on the surface. The rest of the regional shakes out as follows: No. 4 seed Southeast Missouri State, No. 3 seed Florida State and No. 2 seed Southern Miss.
Initial thoughts: Woof. If you’ve read this newsletter and listened to this podcast over the last month, you’ll recall us discussing No. 4 seeds and how Mike Bianco should not throw Doug Nikhazy in game one, barring one or two exceptions. Well, the Rebels drew one of the exceptions. More on that in a minute. Florida State seemed like a pretty firm No. 2 seed amongst those that prognosticate this stuff, but fell to the three line and Southern Miss is likely a tad bitter it is not hosting in Hattiesburg this weekend. You get the picture. The Rebels have a tough draw, but it isn’t the end of the world. Ole Miss is the best team in this regional, and if it plays up to that declaration, it will be fine. Let’s take a look at each club.
Southeast Missouri State (30-20, 17-10 in the Ohio Valley Conference) - Look, if you want to complain about this being a tough draw, then focus your attention here. In my opinion, this likely eliminates the hypothetical decision of when to throw Doug Nikhazy. The Redhawks are not a good baseball team. They are a decent team with an ace that’s an MLB Draft prospect. Dylan Dodd is a 6-foot-3 left-hander that throws 91-93 with a changeup that is by far and away his go-to pitch. The changeup sits in the low 80s and has good depth to it. He’s also got a slider that could generously be classified as ‘okay’ and an upper 70s curveball that he gets over frequently enough to be considered a legitimate pitch. Dodd is a good pitcher. He’s formiddable enough to force Ole Miss’ hand in the sense that Mike Bianco will be more inclined to throw Nikhazy due to the sheer possibility that Dodd is talented enough to shove for six innings and give his team a legitimate chance to win in the late innings.
With all of that said, he is nothing Ole Miss should be overly concerned about. As my podcast host astutely pointed out, this isn’t a great matchup for Dodd. His changeup moves away from right-handed hitters and back inside toward left-handed hitters. The former is a strength and the latter is a potential problem. The Rebels are likely going to run four lefties in their lineup on Friday. Godspeed to Dodd offering a low 80s changeup to T.J. McCants, Kevin Graham and Hayden Leatherwood. I don't think it will end well for him and his other two pitches behind the fastball aren’t good enough to overcome it. Put simply, if Ole Miss is good at the plate on Friday, it will have no problem with Dodd. If the Rebels are lackadaisical in their approach, this kid is good enough to have this game tied at one apiece in the sixth inning. That’s really the essence of this tough draw, coupled with Dodd likely inducing Bianco to run Nikhazy out there. At the end of the day, is it really that consequential? I’d argue it is not.
Southern Miss - This is a good club that pitches the hell out of the ball. The Golden Eagles led Conference USA in most basic pitching metrics. They led their league in opponent batting average, era and were third in strikeouts. They do not hit. Southern Miss is firmly in the middle of the conference in OPS, slugging percentage and are a bottom three team in batting average. If my text messages and Twitter notifications are any indication, people seemed very upset that Ole Miss drew USM as a two and Florida State as a three. Well, if you have a good two, you want a good three seed as well so the two can’t hold its ace or vice versa. Ole Miss will likely see Walker Powell if they face Golden Eagles on Saturday. I think he’s their best arm, so maybe head coach Scott Berry wises up and flips him to Friday, but he will not be an easy out if the Rebels face them. At the same time, USM will struggle to score runs against anyone Ole Miss runs out to the mound.
Florida State - The Seminoles probably should have been a two seed. They’ve got a pretty good pitching staff and have been inconsistent at the plate. Florida State is the worst team in the ACC in team batting average, fourth-worst in slugging and on-base percentage, yet third in home runs. Translation: it’s a bad offense with some power. Ole Miss will likely see left-hander Bryce Hubbart on Saturday if the Rebels end up facing the Seminoles. He’s a classic case of having a decent fastball and a good enough breaking ball to get you out, but not talented or overbearing enough to shut you down at the plate if you show up. If I am an Ole Miss fan, I am rooting for the Seminoles on Friday.
DEAL ALERT: Greg’s chucking y’all a curveball to start the week. You can still get a 16 oz. prime strip for $10 bucks and $2 off any fish in the freezer, but he’s also adding $5 off any frozen sausage purchase this week. Go by and see the man. Best place in Mississippi to get meat.
The great starting pitching debate
This felt like it became a storyline before it should have even been relevant, and it’s probably because of the handful of head-scratching managerial decisions Mike Bianco has made this season — two of directly which cost the team games. But if you’ve listened to the podcast or read the newsletter over the last two weeks, we’ve debated whether Bianco will elect to throw Doug Nikhazy against a four seed. Our argument was that, barring essentially two exceptions, Nikhazy should be held for game two and that it would be an unforgivable decision to throw him in game one. Well, one of the two exceptions came to frution. This four seed has a real ace, and while I think this is still a debate, I would throw Nikhazy in game one. I never thought I’d be saying this two weeks ago, but here’s why.
Why screw around? What’re the odds Ole Miss is losing to this team with Nikhazy on the mound? I’d put it at a less than a five percent chance. Could Derek Diamond beat the Redhawks? Absolutely. But last time I checked, he’s never thrown a postseason game and neither has Drew McDaniel. That matters, in my opinion, and while I just admitted I think Ole Miss would win with Diamond on the mound, do you really want to test that theory if he has a Diamond-like early-inning blow up and the Rebels are down 5-0 in the third with Dodd on the mound? That would induce Tennessee Tech-level tightness in the grandstands. Go with Nikhazy and live to fight another day.
What Diamond and McDaniel did in Hoover changed my thinking on this team’s chances if it were to fall into the loser’s bracket of this regional. Does that mean I think it isn’t a big deal if the Rebels lose a game? Absolutely not. I am just saying that to articulate the fact that I do think they have enough pitching to make it through and I also think I trust Diamond against the pedestrian offenses of Southern Miss and Florida State. Neither team boasts an offense better than Alabama or Auburn (bottom-tier SEC offenses) and Diamond went six innings against both. The kid’s struggles have come against the best offenses in the SEC, which also happen to be the best in the sports, so I think I trust him against the Golden Eagles or Seminoles.
If Ole Miss does pitch Nikhazy in game one and this regional happens to come down to a winner-take-all game on Monday, guess who’s likely going on two day’s rest? The booger eater himself. It may not be peak-level Nikhazy for seven innings, but I’d have to think he’ll give you something rather than potentially go down with the ship watching inside the dugout. If he goes on Saturday, this isn’t even a discussion.
If Nikhazy gives you seven or eight innings like Ole Miss has become accustomed to, you’ve got a chance to completely spare your bullpen for Saturday’s game. If Ole Miss has Johnson, Dougherty and Broadway available for the second game, how much do you really even need out of Diamond? Just give the team four innings and don’t blow up.
So, with all of that said, I am fully declaring a 180 on my thinking, though I outlined this exception even when lobbying the other way. If you’re reading this and disagree, you may be right as well. If Bianco elects to start Diamond, I won’t offer much of a dissenting opinion other than what I have already stated. It’s not the wrong decision, and if it works, Southern Miss or Florida State is going to have a real issue on its hands with Nikhazy on Saturday. I am interested to see what Bianco does here. He said yesterday he has not yet arrived at a decision. History tells us it is Nikhazy, but Bianco has gotten better at adapting over the last three seasons.
SkyBox just wrapped up their NASCAR Coca Cola 600 promo. They did not pick the winner of the race correctly, so no $1000 giveaway, but if you threw down $100 per unit on their entire card, you profited $900. Not a bad consolation prize. More promos are on the way. Go check these guys out. They have a picks package for your preferred sport that will fit your price range. Use the promo code “Rippee” for 20 percent off any purchase.
Randolph, Buckley, notch top-20 finishes
Tupelo native and Mizzou alum Hadyen Buckley and Brandon native and Ole Miss alum Jonathan Randolph each finished t-18 at the Korn Ferry stop in Chicago last week. Buckley overcame an opening-round 74 to climb into a decent finish and Randolph matched two even-par rounds of 71 with a 67 and a 70 to land inside the top 20. Buckley moved up from 35th to 32nd in the points standings and Randolph slid up to 95th from his post of 101st entering the week.
Other content for your perusal:
Check Neal McCready’s 10 weekend thoughts column here. It has baseball and football notes, as well as some reflection on Memorial Day’s significance.
Here’s a podcast Chase and I did with Ole Miss women’s golf assistant Zack Byrd.
On the horizon
A week of newsletters. We’ll take a close look at the field, particularly the Tuscon Regional Ole Miss is paired up with, tomorrow and Thursday.
Two more podcasts. I’ll have something fired up in the midweek. Maybe a Grill Corner with some baseball mixed in before Collin and I do another show Thursday in which we will make our picks.
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. If you’re new, welcome aboard. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun. Who doesn’t love free meats? Back with more tomorrow.