Rippee Writes: Thursday Scoop
Arizona scouting report, transfer news and Magnolia State golf update
A happy Thursday to you all. We'll have a new podcast out later today with Collin Brister previewing Ole Miss and Arizona's matchup in the Tucson Super Regional. We've got some of that to get into today, some golf, transfer news and more.
Let's go.
Get to know the Arizona Wildcats
Let's take a look at Ole Miss' opponent. It's a club that will hit, hit, and hit some more. There is an argument to be made that the Wildcats are the best offense Ole Miss has faced all season. In fact, if you look into the numbers a bit and compare them to the other two candidates — which is really just Arkansas and Vanderbilt — it's not that close. This team averages a .930 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) collectively. That's sort of nuts. Here's what you need to know.
1. The teeth of their lineup goes as follows: (CF) Donta Williams, (DH) Jacob Berry, (C) Daniel Susac, (RF) Ryan Holgate).
This is roughly 1-6(ish) in their lineup with (3B) Tony Bullard, (1B) Branden Boisierre and (2B) Kobe Kato mixed in throughout. But the aforementioned hitters above are undoubtedly their four best sticks, with the best one being Berry who bats in the two hole. What a concept. With that said, there are hardly any holes one thru nine in this lineup. Kato is a really good hitter and Bullard has become one since emerging as a starter about halfway through conference play.
Four guys in their lineup had a 1.000+ OPS in PAC 12 play alone. The Wildcats led the conference in batting average, slugging, on-base percentage and ranked seventh in strikeouts. Translation: this lineup hits and works the hell out of at-bats with few swings-and-misses. Once the lineup gets rolling, there will be times throughout this weekend it feels like an avalanche. Ole Miss is going to have to be good at mitigating damage on the mound. The Rebels will give up runs, but they will be fine if a three-run inning doesn't turn into six and they look up to find the game spiraling away from them before they've blinked an eye. That will be a massive key to this series.
2. There is also a great deal of speed in this lineup. You'll look at the stolen base numbers and think I am dumb, but the Wildcats led the PAC 12 in triples and stole 31 bags in a league that runs a hell of a lot more in the SEC. Their ballpark is large and cavernous, but it doesn't play that way because of the air and heat. Look at it this way though: 360 feet to the gap is still 360 feet no matter the air density, or whatever Bryson Dechambeau is calling it these days. If the ball doesn't go over the fence, the gap dimensions come into play more, if that makes any sense. The outfield is huge and the Rebels are going to have to be good defensively out there. I would imagine John Rhys Plumlee and Cade Sammons will have increased value as late-game defensive replacements and I would bet Plumlee starts in game two with Arizona having a left-hander on the hill. There's a world of difference between a one-out double and a one-out triple, and for a team that's had its struggles defensively, Ole Miss is going to need to play its best defense this weekend.
3. What's their rotation look like? Right-hander Chase Silseth will presumably start in game one. He's got a big fastball in the 94-96 range with a decent changeup and curveball. He's not their best pitcher and teams have gotten after him at times. He spun a gem against Oregon in late-March and has a couple of dominant performances against weaker PAC 12 offenses, but better clubs have hit him. Hell, Grand Canyon ousted him after three innings last week after tagging him for four runs on nine hits. He's a good arm talent, but certainly not a dominant force on the mound. There's opportunity for the Rebels to get after him. Here's one last note on Silseth: his last two outings have come against Grand Canyon and Dixie State, the latter due to the PAC 12's funky COVID-scheduling. He hasn't faced a "power five" offense, to use a football term, since May 21, and likely has not faced an offense of Ole Miss' caliber this season. That matters.
Left-hander Garret Irvin will likely pitch game two for Arizona. He's their best pitcher. He's got four decent pitches and is consistently in the zone. With that said, he's walked more guys this year than you would like and leads the team with 33 free passes. That's not an insane number, but certainly more than what the scouting report on him before the year would suggest. Irvin is their guy, though. Arizona is the best version of itself with the junior on the hill. He will be the tougher challenge, but Ole Miss has hit left-handers well this season.
If there is a game three, you'll probably see freshman right hander Chandler Murphy. He started the season in the rotation, was bounced out of it, and then inserted back in later in the year. He's pitched more consistently down the stretch and has pretty good stuff, but is not someone that will give Arizona a gigantic advantage in a winner-take-all game, no matter who Ole Miss has on the mound.
4. Arizona's bullpen is better than their numbers show. They've got a pretty good closer in Vince Vannelle, but he's no Landon Sims, Kevin Kopps or Taylor Broadway. The Wildcats had key relievers Preston Price and Gil Luna miss some fairly significant time with injuries at various points in the season, but both are healthy now. It's pretty balanced in terms of right-left. They've got a few decent options to run at opponents from either side. The bullpen isn't the strength of this club but isn't the glaring weakness surface-level numbers might suggest.
I'll have some keys to the series and what not tomorrow morning.
DEAL ALERT: You can still get a 16 oz. prime strip for $10 bucks and $2 off any fish in the freezer, but he’s also adding $5 off any frozen sausage purchase this week. Go by and see the man. Best place in Mississippi to get meat.
The great rotation debate
Calling it a great debate is probably a little much, but the header sounded cool. As of this writing, Ole Miss has not released its rotation. It is an interesting situation given that Ole Miss threw two rotation guys on Monday in order to even be in this position. I seriously doubt you'll see Doug Nikhazy in game one, but hell, who knows. Maybe Doug says he's ready and Bianco sees an opportunity with Silseth being somewhat pedestrian. But assuming Nikhazy doesn't go in game one, how does the rotation shake out? Surely the Tyler Myers-Drew McDaniel thing is not a discussion. You have to start Myers over him. But how do you set the rotation? I'll give you what I would do then forecast what I think Mike Bianco will do.
I would throw Myers in game one and then list the rest of the weekend TBA. This is partially stolen from my esteemed co-host Collin Brister, but the Myers part isn't. Myers doesn't have as much experience starting against good offenses (and by that I mean he has one start) as Derek Diamond does, but given what you're up against with this offense, who do you trust more to not totally implode? This is a series and a lineup that is going to test a pitcher's mental fortitude, and forgive me if I am being too harsh, that's kind of the knock on Diamond this year. If you really want to get weird, I could make an argument for Jack Dougherty game one, but I won't do this today. I'd then see if Ole Miss wins or loses. Obviously, if you lose, there is no decision. You throw Doug in game two. But If you're able to win game one, is there an argument to hold Doug for a potential game three and throw Diamond instead? Nikhazy would miss Arizona's ace and be a gigantic advantage over Murphy in game three. I also see the side of throwing him in game two with the mindset "go win this thing right now" and don't have a problem with either side. I just find the debate interesting.
What I think Bianco will do is go Diamond, Nikhazy, Myers. Don't stray from what got you here, and if Diamond implodes early, quick hook him, burn your Dougherty card and see if you can get back into the game. Maybe I am wrong about all of this and Nikhazy throws Friday. I just have a hard time buying it given his workload last weekend and Ole Miss isn't really at a disadvantage giving him an extra day's rest.
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Rebels hit transfer portal for 2022:
Ole Miss needs arms for next year. That's apparent. You'll likely see the Rebels hit the transfer portal hard this offseason and it began the other day.
I'll let my friend Chase Parham take it from here.
Magnolia State golf update:
Boy, what a week for golf in this state. Two Mississippians in the U.S. Open is probably a surprise to most, but this young generation of talent is going to make waves in professional golf over the next half decade, which is precisely why their progress deserves documenting. This state is rich with talented players and they’re starting to emerge at the highest levels of this sport.
1. The PGA Tour is in Ridgeland, South Carolina, this week at The Congaree. This is a replacement event for the RBC Heritage that could not be played due to Canada's COVID-19 restrictions. This course was built by billionaires and has two members. It's a fascinating story. Learn more about it here. There are no Mississippians in the field, but as we always say in this space, there will soon be many.
2. The Korn Ferry Tour is in the penultimate week of a grueling 11-stretch of consecutive tournaments. You may be thinking 'why is that grueling? the PGA Tour plays every week.' Well, most guys on the PGA Tour either don't have the status to get in every event or have good enough status and financial standing to make their own schedule. There aren't really off weeks on this tour. Scoff at this notion if you want because it's golf, but the grind chasing a PGA Tour dream is grueling physically and mentally. You go play six days a week for 11 consecutive weeks in 11 different cities and tell me how you feel after.
Anyway, rant over. The Korn Ferry Tour is also in South Carolina for the BMW Charity Pro Am at Thornblade Golf Club. The usual five Mississippians are in the field.
A NOTE: you're likely used to me posting these guys' Thursday and Friday tee times. Only the Thursday times were released this week. I am guessing this has something to do with it being a Pro AM and wanting to mix up the pairings more than the usual Thursday-Friday groups and then weekend reshuffle.
- Brandon native and Ole Miss alum Jonathan Randolph went off at 7 a.m. today. He took a week off last week and currently sits 96th in the standings. Randolph has made a few cuts of late and played better golf over the last six weeks, but has a long trek ahead. He should be eying slipping inside the top 75 that qualify for the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, which awards an additional 25 PGA Tour Cards over a four week stretch to the next 25 guys in the standings that did not finish in the regular season top 25.
- Hattiesburg native and Alabama alum Davis Riley teed off at 7:55 this morning. Riley officially locked up his PGA Tour card three weeks ago after reaching the fail-safe mark in points, meaning he's earned enough points to guarantee he remains inside the top 25 in the standings. Riley essentially locked this up over 14 months ago. He won twice on this tour in 2020 before the COVID shutdown, and is a victim of the pandemic-induced wraparound season that has combined the shortened 2020 season with the usual 2021 slate. Riley has basically been biding his time and cashing checks until he's awarded his PGA Tour card in August. He's also playing for a third win, which would award him an immediate battleground promotion to the PGA Tour, like literally immediately as in he’d be on the Tour next week if he wins this weekend. The 24-year-old has had a remarkable ascent in professional golf and is a star in the making.
- Tupelo native and Mississippi State alum Chad Ramey teed off at 8:06 this morning. Ramey finished t-12 last week in Raleigh. Water is also wet. This man is in the middle of truly incredible stretch of consistent golf. Ramey has missed just three cuts in 34 events in this wraparound season and sits at 9th in the standings without a win. It's hard to articulate how hard that is to do. Multiple Korn Ferry Tour players have remarked to me that he's essentially known as a machine. Go look at his results and tell me if that reputation isn't warranted. Ramey is well in line to realize his PGA Tour dream.
- Tupelo native and Mizzou alum Hayden Buckley went off at 7:55 this morning. Buckley is two days removed from qualifying for the 121st U.S. Open at Torrey Pines after earning one of five slots awarded at the Atlanta sectional qualifying site. Buckley sits at 34th in the standings after winning in Florida in February in the Tour's first event of 2021. He's one strong finish from entering into the top 25 and earning a Tour card.
- Ole Miss alum Braden Thornberry tees off at 1:05 this afternoon. He's missed the cut in three of his last six events but has a top 10 sprinkled in there as well. Thornberry sits at 52nd in the standings and is still within striking distance of sliding inside that top 25. He'd likely need a win or like three top five finishes down the stretch, but he's certainly in the mix.
-- One final note if you missed the Tuesday newsletter: Jackson native and Alabama alum Wilson Furr also made it through U.S Open sectional qualifying this week. I talked to Furr last night and this story is almost too insane to believe. He turned pro less than 14 days ago, showed up as an alternate, with no caddie or practice round, gets in, pulls a random guy from the gallery to caddie for him eight holes into his 1st round (36-hole day) and qualified for the U.S. Open. He will make his professional debut at Torrey Pines. I'll have a story on this either tomorrow or over the weekend, but it's a wild tale.
On the horizon:
- baseball-centric newsletter tomorrow
- preview podcast with Collin out later today
- perhaps new meats deals from Greg
- tons of coverage from Rebel Grove this weekend
That's all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join the fun. Back with more tomorrow.