Rippee Writes: the end of the 2021 baseball season
Thoughts on a resilient team that just didn't have enough, and a program's uncertain future
Good Monday afternoon to all of you. We have a new podcast out with Collin Brister in which we wrote the obituary of the 2021 Ole Miss Rebels baseball team, what this means for Mike Bianco's future, pitching decisions and more. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts.
There's a lot of stuff to get into today. Let's roll.
Rebels obliterated in game three by Arizona
I imagine last night was a rather unpleasant viewing experience for many of you. I don't really have an incredibly intricate and nuanced stance as it pertains to the game itself. Arizona was better than Ole Miss. Outside of the Rebels having a superhuman on the mound in game two, they were entirely overwhelmed and overmatched by a superior roster.
The Wildcats' offense is undoubtedly the best in the sport. We knew they were good going in, but perhaps did not have the proper degree of appreciation. There are no holes in the lineup and one thru five in that batting order is as potent and dangerous as any team in college baseball over the last half decade. I think the perfect encapsulation of just how good Arizona is at the plate actually in game two when it was stifled. Doug Nikhazy required 54 pitches to collect six outs, without allowing a run. You watched No. 26 all year dominate opponents, and still get by fairly economically when he didn't have his best stuff. Ask yourself this: have you seen Doug struggle to finish guys off and get outs ever in his career? It was unbelievable how much relentless pressure Arizona put on him and it was equally unbelievable that he made it 5.1 innings and gave Ole Miss a chance. Watching Nikhazy battle out there looked like a man facing a challenge greater than any of the ones he previously faced. As he always does, he fought valiantly and gave his team a chance.
Of course, the offense doing its part helped too. I doubt I am alone on this, but watching Nikhazy labor as much as he did immediately told me that the offense was going to need to be heroic in game three for the Rebels to have a chance, no matter who they pitched. That didn't happen. It’s that simple.
Ole Miss' offense falters in season's final month
If you're looking for a diagnosis on why this team faltered, at least in the short-term, look no further than the Ole Miss offense. It wasn't the same group over the final three weeks of the season. The Rebels scored double digit runs just twice over their last 16 games, both oddly enough coming in the postseason, but there's of course more to the story than that. T.J. McCants hit a freshman wall, Hayden Dunhurst faltered down the stretch and Peyton Chatagnier slumped for three weeks before finally figuring some things out in the final ten days. Hayden Leatherwood hit .349 in 29 SEC games and was not starting against left-handed pitching by the end of the season.
The elements that took this offense from good to elite deteriorated late in the season. It happens sometimes with younger guys. None of the four mentioned had played a full major collegiate season before. You'd be unwise to think fatigue wasn't a factor. With the lack of depth on the mound, Ole Miss needed its offense to be great in the postseason. It did not get the job done and the Rebels are putting the bats away until next winter as a result.
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The curious case of Mike Bianco
This story and this era become more complicated by the year. In a vacuum, this is arguably Bianco's best coaching job. Yes, he had the two egregious blunders on a pair of Sundays in Starkville and College Station. But he took a team that lost its best hitter for a month and its best pitcher for the season to the brink of going to Omaha. He constantly moved pieces around. He was forward thinking. Hell, the man started his closer in the game last night. I loved the move. Fire your best bullet first and don't limit the number of meaningful innings he can throw. If you're criticizing him about this, you likely don't have a viable alternate strategy, and even if you do, it wouldn't have worked. Broadway was the only one who got the Wildcats out on a halfway consistent basis. The percentage chance that your strategy would've worked out better out better are between zero and zero. You're just playing the result.
I think the Broadway decision, and the ones leading up to it, are actually evidence of Bianco's evolution. He held his ace on two different occasions this postseason. He had the creativity to start hard-throwing Jack Dougherty against a potent Southern Miss offense with the season on the line, after he threw 60 pitches two nights prior. All of the things fans clamored for him to do for years in the name of forward-thinking and adopting more modern philosophies, he did this year. You can count on one hand how many times the Rebels bunted. The team just wasn't good enough, and the mere fact they were nine innings from Omaha, given what they went through, is a credit to Bianco.
With that said, I of course understand this cannot be viewed in a vacuum, and this is where nuance gets lost and irrational lines in the sand are drawn. Yes, one Omaha trip in two decades is not ideal. Yes, being 1-5 in games to get to Omaha and 1-6 in super regionals is suboptimal. Losing home regionals in 2016 and 2018 and never winning a road regional are all valid arguments to make against Bianco. But the fact of the matter is he's made back-to-back super regionals and lost to better teams. It doesn't change the history, but the history also doesn't change this fact. The best gauge of program success is how often you make it to supers and he's got the program back to a place where it is doing that regularly.
But when is enough, enough? 25 years? 28? 30? It's a complicated question that is hard to answer. Bianco is recruiting as well as ever and this program is nationally relevant, but that also doesn't mean change wouldn't be effective. Mike Bianco won't be fired this year. He will be the head coach in 2022 if he wants to be, but with the LSU job seeming more and more like it is his to turn down, is he pushed away? or at the very least *not* coaxed into staying?
Bianco's future in Oxford and Baton Rouge
I will preface this as I always do by saying I am no longer a reporter and if you're looking for sourced information, sign up for RebelGrove.com. With that said, I have not been away for too terribly long and have a decent feel for reading situations. Call it halfway-educated speculation, if you wish, just don't aggregate it as reporting. I am just a grease salesman with a newsletter.
The general consensus is that the LSU job is there for Bianco if he wants it. It is reportedly down to him and former Ole Miss assistant and East Carolina head coach Cliff Godwin. Let's play this out. If you're Bianco and are in fact offered the job, isn't this a no-brainer? You can get at least a five-year reset, a pay raise and return to your alma mater while doing it. It looks like you've hit a ceiling at your current job. The benefits and advantages are better at the new job. Other than the sentimental factor of Ole Miss being "your program" that you built from the ground up, what's the decision here? The alternative is risking being without a job if things go sideways in 2022. If Bianco ever is actually fired, he will have his pick of jobs to chose from, but they likely won’t be in the same stratosphere as the LSU gig.
I, of course, have no idea how Bianco feels about coaching at LSU, moving away from Oxford and potentially coaching his son Drew. Only one of his kids is still in high school and she has a year left, if I am not mistaken. This seems like the perfect time to reset and go back to your roots. Bianco will be given every benefit of the doubt at LSU. He's one of them. The timing makes sense.
But that seems to be the whole hang up here. No one knows what Mike Bianco is thinking, and until he's ready to tell us, we wait.
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What do you do if you're Keith Carter?
This might be the most interesting factor in this. If Bianco articulates he's interested in the LSU job, does Carter fight to keep him? It depends on what your definition of ‘fight” is, I suppose. I feel pretty good about saying there will be no bidding war for Bianco if and when LSU offers north of $1.5 million. What do you do about extending Bianco's contract? If you'll remember, Carter opted against rolling Bianco's contract back to the state-allowed maximum of four years in 2019. Carter was the interim AD with his eyes set on the permanent job. It was the closest thing to a power move he could make as an interim. Bianco was again a game short of Omaha and likely did not agree with the decision. Then, COVID-19 struck after a historic start to the 2020 season and Carter was all but forced to extend back out. What's the precedent here? Why is extending Bianco after falling a game short of Omaha in 2021 explainable when Carter did not do it in 2019? Opting against an extension again would surely send Bianco a message, but is it the right one? I suppose that's the million dollar question.
One final obituary:
This team should be remembered as one that threw its best punch with its back against a wall. This group coerced Mike Bianco into saying things he doesn't say, like it's the "proudest he's ever been of a team," and that it is "the most resilient group I have ever coached." In the end, the 2021 Ole Miss Rebels simply were not good enough to overcome the injuries and adversity surrounding them. Their one shot to doing so was through its greatest strength: the offense. Instead, that strength became a bit of a hollow threat. The Rebels fought until the end, they just didn't have the firepower to win the war.
Content for your perusal:
Chase Parham wrote a great column on juxtaposing one season versus a program as a whole.
Neal McCready posted his always-thought provoking 10 weekend thoughts.
On the horizon:
- It's summer now. The podcasts will keep coming but the content will be different. I have some cool ideas in the works. Stay tuned.
- Tons of golf coverage this week, including a feature story on a Mississippian in the U.S. Open
That's all from me this afternoon. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join the fun. Back with more tomorrow.