Rippee Writes: some last minute baseball thoughts
consider it a bonus series preview: notes on pitching, outfield defense and more
A happy Friday afternoon to you all. Getting started a little later today, but wanted to send off some pre-series thoughts anyway. We've got a new podcast out with Collin Brister previewing the series, pitching matchups and more. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts.Â
I have some thoughts before this gets rolling here in a few hours.
Bianco names Diamond game one starter.
Derek Diamond will get the baseball in the opening game. This isn't much of a surprise as it did not seem very realistic that Doug Nikhazy would be best suited to open this series after throwing 147 pitches over a two-day span that culminated on Monday. As I outlined yesterday, I would have gone with Tyler Myers tonight because of his ability to mitigate damage - as opposed to Diamond’s inability to just that — and the way he's pitched in his last two outings, but I also understand Bianco trusting Diamond more than a guy with a grand total of one start against a quality team this season. It's not the wrong decision by any means, I just wonder if it's the one with more downside.Â
2. The worry with Diamond is the antithesis of my argument for Myers. Arizona's offense is arguably the best in the sport and there aren't any weak points in it. The Wildcats don't strikeout often and battle opposing pitcher every single pitch. I don't know what their quality at-bat metrics are, but would guess they're off the charts. Diamond has struggled at two things this year: 1. Getting off the field when he allows men on base (particularly with two outs) and 2. Getting thru the batting order a second and third time. Tonight is not the night to try to get length out of Diamond if you're Ole Miss. If things begin to get squirrelly early on, have Jack Dougherty (or whomever) at the ready to enter the game while it's still in the balance. Assuming the Rebels are in better form offensively than they were last weekend, they'll get after Arizona starter Chase Silseth. Ole Miss will score runs, but if Diamond puts them in a 6-0 hole in the third inning, it'll be tough sledding. It's not likely Ole Miss will hold them at six for the rest of the game after Diamond's departure, either. This is of course just a hypothetical to articulate that the leash should be short tonight.
3. Last thought on Diamond: the first two innings are paramount. He builds up a ton of confidence, almost to a fault, when he starts well and has shown the ability (at times, at least) to give length when his pitch count is somewhat economical the first time through the order. Ole Miss doesn't need him to be tremendous tonight, but five or six innings would be a potential series-changer for the Rebels.
4. Sort of piggybacking off the last thought, I think you try to throw the kitchen sink at Arizona with regard to the bullpen tonight. I know that sounds obvious, but I guess what I am getting at is this: if you need three innings from Dougherty and 7-9 outs from Taylor Broadway, you do it. You cannot worry about tomorrow's availability because tomorrows seldom exist in June. If the opportunity beckons to use Broadway (or anyone else) in extended action tonight, don't balk at it. Because if Ole Miss wins tonight, with Doug Nikhazy still in the holster, good luck to the Wildcats. The Rebels would be in immaculate position to polish this series off if they can collect a victory tonight. In simple terms: win by any means necessary from a pitching standpoint and No. 26 will take care of the rest.Â
5. The Ole Miss outfield defense is something to monitor tonight. This ballpark is cavernous and the outfield is sprawling. Arizona leads the sport in triples for a reason. As I outlined yesterday, there's a huge difference between a one-out triple and a one-out double. This team has had some pretty cringeworthy moments fielding balls in the outfield this year and it is going to need to find a way to be the best version of itself in this regard this weekend. It may sound inconsequential, but outfield defense could absolutely decide this series. I feel pretty confident that John Rhys Plumlee will get at least one start (game 2) with Arizona going with a left-hander. Does he get more than one? He and Cade Sammons will certainly be late-game defensive replacements at minimum. T.J. McCants cannot afford to let his struggles at the plate adversely affect his defense. If he goes 0-4 tonight, but snares two balls in the gap and doesn't have a defensive gaffe, he's given this team value. This is a huge portion of this series.
6. The Ole Miss lineup is going to have to be better top to bottom than it has been since the regular season ended. This lineup went from good to elite because guys like McCants, Hayden Leatherwood, Hayden Dunhurst and Jacob Gonzalez. Peyton Chatagnier appears to have emerged out of a late-season slump and hit better last weekend. The Rebels can't afford for Dunhurst, McCants and Leatherwood to be dead weight. The opposition is too good at the plate. I predict the winner of this series will have come out on top of a slugfest in one of the games. Even if Ole Miss pitches it well, runs will be scored and the Rebels will need to keep pace.
7. Let's say the Rebels win tonight. Do they hold Nikhazy for a potential third game? There's two schools of thought here. 1. No, go win this now and do not screw around. 2. Give your horse an extra day of rest and pitch him in a game in which his counterpart will be drastically inferior. Chandler Murphy will presumably be Arizona's game three starter. He's a decent arm, but he will not hold a candle to Nikhazy. Take my educated opinion for what it's worth, but soreness is certainly a factor in this decision and don't be shocked if Nikhazy is held from game two if the Rebels win tonight. Obviously, if the team loses, there is no decision to be made.
Prediction: Ole Miss in three.
Have a wonderful weekend.