Rippee Writes: Rebels destroy Tulane to set up showdown in Tuscaloosa
The rapidly growing expectations for this Ole Miss team, its chances against Alabama and a look around how the SEC fared in week three.
A happy Monday to you all. We’ve got a new podcast out with former Ole Miss recruiting specialist Weldon Rotenberg recapping Ole Miss-Tulane, the changing expectations for this team and what chance the Rebels have in Tuscaloosa in two weeks. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got all kinds of football topics to dive into today. Let’s roll.
Rebels dismantle Tulane to set up showdown in Tuscaloosa
I thought this was the best of the three games Ole Miss has played this year and I don’t think it is particularly close. The offense was nearly flawless. It scored six touchdowns in seven drives in the first half, and really, it was six touchdowns in six drives. The only possession that did not end in a touchdown was the one right before half in which time ran out and Caden Costa just missed a 54-yard field goal try.
This game, to me, was about the defense. What are the odds the 2020 version of the defense holding a top-half American Conference opponent to 21 points and less than 300 yards of total offense? The Green Wave’s total technically ended up at 305, but the starters gave up about 260 in three-and-a-half quarters. Before the game began, one of the thoughts I had written down was this: if the defense is actually better, then this game shouldn’t be very close. Ole Miss was always going to score, and pretty much score at will, barring a barrage of self-inflicted errors. But would the defense allow them to create separation or would this be the classic 68-48 win that was a ten point game in the fourth quarter? The was defense up to the challenge against an offense that isn’t overly talented but is more than capable and a scheme that does a great job of putting defenders in conflict.
Anyway, let’s get to my notes from the weekend.
OFFENSIVE NOTES:
This game was the full Jonathan Mingo experience. He had a couple of drops and a couple of great catches in traffic within the game’s first three drives. He finished with six grabs for 136 yards and a touchdown. Mingo looks bigger and stronger than he did this time last year and is absolutely more comfortable moving with the football after the catch. His emergence the last two games is a great sign to an already dynamic offense. There’s only so much attention that can be allocated to Braylon Sanders or Dontario Drummond, and if Mingo can be a consistent threat on the outside in SEC play, I am not sure how opposing defenses are supposed to adequately account for all three guys at once.
I thought this was one of the best games Jerrion Ealy has played in his career. He finished with 15 carries for 103 yards and a score. He’s the first guy to tally 100 yards in a game this year. He ran physically, seemed undeterred by contact, more so than usual, and his balance in terms of staying upright after the initial contact was better than the other two games. Ealy is a talented back and his weaknesses are minor things, but even so, it seemed plainly obvious this was one of his best performances in and Ole Miss uniform.
Henry Parrish’s touchdown run in the first quarter is precisely why he is such a special running back. He makes this look easy, so on the surface it may look like a routine stroll into the end zone, but watch the move he makes on the pursuing defender. He sets up the cut a couple yards before too. He goes hard right, a couple quick steps and then shifts two yards back to the left in a nanosecond. This speaks to his vision as well. That is not an easy move by any stretch and he made it look simple. Ole Miss has an incredibly deep, diverse and talented running back room.
The offensive line looked sharp. I am far from an evaluator, but whatever Kiffin’s gripes were with this unit after week two had to be quelled a little bit with this performance. Orland Umana is still working himself into form after a nearly two-year absence from game action. I also still think he’s adjusting in this scheme and the frenetic pace it demands. He had a couple of penalties in this game and has had some minor snap snafus in the two games he’s played in, but overall, he’s still been fine. I just don’t think we’ve seen him play his best football yet.
We had yet another Dontario Drummond H-back touchdown.
He leaked out to the short side of the field for a 12-yard touchdown in the second quarter. This speaks to two things. 1. Drummond’s versatility has immense value in this offense and shouldn’t go underappreciated. 2. Jeff Lebby and Lane Kiffin are as good at anyone in this sport at shaping the offense to fit their players’ strengths. Ole Miss utilized the tight end position heavily last year. This year, because of injuries and different skillsets, they’ve hardly used the tight end in the passing game at all and the offense hasn’t missed a beat. On top of that, they’ve found a pseudo-tight end role for Drummond here they can use when needed. That’s great coaching. Not everyone is good at that and some coaches are too stubborn to adapt. Not to turn this into a tiresome Egg Bowl debate, but is that partially why Mike Leach and Mississippi State are struggling right now. Leach’s system is his system and they are going to run it a certain way no matter what. That doesn’t work in this league. Adaptation is good. Just look at the greatest dynasty in the history of the sport one state over. Do Saban’s 2009-2015 offenses look remotely similar to the Alabama offenses of the last six years? No. There’s a reason for it — he adapted with the way the game was trending.
Kiffin and Lebby are great at this, too. In fact, Kiffin helped Saban evolve at Alabama. That’s something that should be valued.
DEFENSIVE NOTES:
Chance Campbell is a really good football player. I realize I am stating the obvious here, but my god, the guy is all over the field. His speed and ability to change direction are traits Ole Miss simply hasn’t had at linebacker since 2015. Ole Miss did a decent job of pressuring Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt from the outside early on in the game. He was clearly uncomfortable remaining in the pocket after the slightest hint of it breaking. Once he scrambled, it seemed like Campbell met him within five yards and made the tackle every single time. He’s made this defense so much better. Momo Sanogo only played 12 snaps in this game and, if my own calculations are correct, hasn’t entered a game in the first half. That’s not a slight at Sanogo, but it does speak to where this defense is from a talent standpoint and just how valuable Campbell is to the Rebels.
2. Staying on linebackers, I re-watched the game yesterday and Lakia Henry stuck out way more than he did upon watching the game in real time. He made a couple of great plays at the line of scrimmage against the run. He finished with five tackles, four of them solo tackles. Ole Miss has three pretty solid linebackers with Campbell, Henry and Mark Robinson. All three need to remain healthy, but that’s a much improved unit.
3. Tulane scored 21 points and it all essentially came on three explosive plays. One of them was a pick play that probably should have been called, but whatever. Asking for a pick to be called, unless it’s blatantly obvious, is like complaining about offensive holding. It called at any time and getting worked up about it is silly. The other two looked like a busted coverage and another missed assignment. Not great, but this defense is giving up far fewer explosive plays than it did over the last two seasons. That is what has stuck out to me. The group ranks 47th in the FBS in yards per play. With the current state of the roster, that will suffice every single time the Rebels take the field. Ole Miss is 60th in total defense. If it remains in that neighborhood, I am not sure who the Rebels cannot beat.
4. We saw Tavius Robinson for the first time this season. He’d been battling an injury up to this point. Robinson made a nice fourth down stop on a run play late in the game. He’s a big, physical body up front that the Rebels could use from a sheer depth standpoint, if nothing else. That’s probably short-changing his abilities a bit. He’s a good player. We just don’t have a large sample size yet of what he can do. Ole Miss needs him healthy and in the mix amongst a defensive line rotation that’s still a little thin.
5. Deane Leonard did not play. Not sure what is up there. Just pointing it out. DeAntre Prince started over him. Leonard didn’t play great against Austin Peay and Prince has played well so far this year. I have no idea if there is anything to read into that.
Tywone Malone and Jake Springer didn’t play either. Those two have both battled injuries, though we saw Malone last week in the win over Austin Peay. Purely speculating based off what Kiffin said after the game, but I think both Malone and Spring will be available to play in two weeks in Tuscaloosa.
6. I had this thought on Saturday night when trying to figure out how to encapsulate the defensive improvement. If Ole Miss gets two stops per half, is any defense capable of holding the Rebels’ offense down the point where those two stops aren’t enough to keep them in the game at minimum? I seriously doubt it.
Weldon had a similar theory on the podcast: If the defense gives up 28 points or fewer in every game, who is Ole Miss losing to? Please don’t confuse this for being a 12-0 prediction or declaring the defense immune to getting torched, it’s just an interesting way to look at things.
Anyways, this was my notebook for the week. I think that just about covered everything. Ole Miss had its first rain delay in a while and its head coach didn’t conducted a fully-padded scrimmage to pass the time. That’s always nice, too.
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Showdown in Tuscaloosa awaits
There will be plenty of time to talk about this game over the course of the next 12 days, but it’s wild how quickly expectations for this Ole Miss team have evolved. I believe the Rebels have a chance to beat Alabama. Some of that is based on how the offense has played and the visible improvement of the defense. Some of it is also watching Alabama look human against Florida in Gainesville on Saturday. Alabama will be favored by two scores and deservedly so. There are still the clear cut favorite to win the SEC West. Bryce Young is a good quarterback, but he’s young. Alabama slightly less experienced across its starting 2022 than it has been over the last four years. The Tide still have the most talent in the conference and those players are four and five stars for a reason, but if there is a case to be made that they might be slightly more vulnerable than we’ve become accustomed to, its’ the lack of experience and not having nine projected first round (in this upcoming 2022draft at least) starting for them.
Ole Miss is unfortunate in a sense to have a bye week so early in the season. Kiffin said he didn’t prefer it this way in his postgame press conference, but the Rebels are fortunate to have two weeks to prepare for this game. They’re fortunate to catch Alabama early in the season as opposed to November, when some of that inexperience has faded. They’re lucky they are catching the Crimson Tide when the Rebels are pretty healthy across the board. I wouldn’t pick Ole Miss to win this game, but I’d be stunned if it weren’t competitive. That’s the main difference this year and it speaks to how good of a job Kiffin and his staff have done in such a short amount of time.
Kickoff was announced as a 2:30 p.m. (CT) kick on CBS.
By the numbers
This content item is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as I am far from a numbers geek, but I do like throwing out some random stats that I find interesting. Here are a few.
Ole Miss had 41 first downs in the win over Tulane. That’s a lot.
This is from Cole Cubelic on Twitter: Ole Miss gained at least 600 yards six times in 13 games under Lane Kiffin. The program had 16 such games in its history prior to that — a 1,209 game span. Ridiculous.
Ole Miss had 601 yards with over seven minutes remaining in the third quarter.
Dontario Drummond has scored a touchdown in eight consecutive games.
Matt Corral tied Showboat Boykin for most touchdowns in a single game in program history (7). He did so in two-and-a-half quarters.
Corral became the first player in SEC history to throw for three touchdowns and run for four in a single game.
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Around the SEC
Let’s look around the SEC as we do every week.
Alabama - covered this earlier: really good team. Deservedly the heavy favorite to win the SEC West. But human. That’s significant.
Auburn - The Tigers fell short in Happy Valley. Bo Nix is what he is at this point — not great on the road. But Auburn has a clear identity and a good enough defense to hang with anyone in the conference and may just wind up as the third team best team in the west.
Arkansas - We will know more after the Razorbacks play Texas A&M this week, but this team is well-coached and talented enough to sneak up on opponents. I am not sure much was learned from beating the brakes off of Georgia Southern, though.
Florida - The Gators were oh so close to pulling off the upset. The two-point conversion call was underwhelming. Emory Jones was bad early but good late. He will likely remain the starter for the foreseeable future. The early 21-3 hole Florida fell into was just too much to overcome. Love him or hate him, Dan Mullen is a really good football coach.
Georgia - J.T. Daniels threw for three touchdowns against a bad South Carolina team. I am still not sold on him, but all he needs to do is be competent because that defense is legit.
Kentucky - Chalk this up as a lazy 11 a.m. game that’s tough get get up for? The Wildcats slept walked past Chattanooga. I would be slightly concerned if I were a Kentucky fan but I still think this is a good team.
LSU - The Tigers looked a lot better in a blowout win over Central Michigan. Max Johnson looked more confident. I still think this is a 7-5 team.
Missouri - the offense is competent and the defense is bad. The Tigers will finish ahead of Vanderbilt and potentially South Carolina, but are a 6-6 team at best.
Mississippi State - the offensive line play is still bad. The quarterback is limited and the offensive coaching staff’s refusal adjust to their players’ strength is going to make for a long year in Starkville. Tulu Griffin not getting a touch is all the evidence you need of that. The defense is good though, which makes this more frustrating. The Bulldogs were robbed on a horrific blown call on that punt return, but it shouldn’t have come down to that against a bad Memphis team.
Ole Miss - see the 1,500 words above.
South Carolina - The Gamecocks play hard for Shane Beamer but are not talented enough to compete against good teams.
Tennessee - I don’t think Joe Milton is bad. Josh Heupel disagrees. He’s smarter than me but I don’t see what changing quarterbacks is going to do for a team that is sure to have a rough go of it this season regardless of who is under center.
Texas A&M - We learned little nothing about them in a 34-0 rout of New Mexico. Zach Calzada got more reps in a game that was never in doubt, which is good. I have my doubts about the Aggies simply due to the quarterback play.
Vanderbilt - The Commodores were competitive against Stanford. I don’t know what more you could ask for from this roster.
Furr advances to second stage of KFT Q-School
Jackson native Wilson Furr advanced through the first stage of Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying School. He shot 10-under in this 72-hole event to move on with ease and led the field in birdies at Kinderloo Forest in Valdosta, Georgia. I do not know where Furr plays next, but will update you when I find out.
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On the horizon:
- Tons of football in the newsletter this week and a Magnolia State golf update
- Some Ryder Cup preview talk
- A podcast check in on the basketball team. It’s the bye week, after all.
- We will probably bring back Mailbag Friday this week with no football game to preview
That’s all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun. It is free. Back with more tomorrow.