Rippee Writes: Monday Scoop
a series loss, poor decisions and a team pushed to the brink
Happy Monday to all. We've got our usual Sunday mega-podcast up with Collin Brister recapping Ole Miss’ series loss to Texas A&M, if you’d like to vent, be angry or feel better about the series. We aren’t doctors, but we gave our best diagnosis of a lot of things. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts. There is a ton to dive into today.
Let’s go.
Injury, decision making dooms Rebels at Texas A&M
Ole Miss lost two of three to Texas A&M this weekend. It’s a disastrous series loss, particularly given the way Friday and Sunday played out. A national seed is pretty much out the window, barring some sort of insane run over these last six games and a deep push at the SEC Tournament. Ole Miss will undoubtedly be selected as one of the 20 potential host sites this coming Thursday, but a lot of this discussion feels somewhat irrelevant at the current moment for a team that feels as if it is on the brink of succumbing to poor fortune and a spotty bill of health. The decision making in the finale was, once again, incredibly head-scratching to say the least. Here are some thoughts on the weekend that was.
Let’s just start with what everyone is talking about: how Ole Miss entered the seventh inning with a 5-2 lead and lost the game 6-5. Let’s set the scene here. Jack Dougherty surrenders a leadoff double. Texas A&M pinch hits and Mike Bianco goes to Taylor Broadway for the first time on the weekend. That’s good. No qualms there. Broadway strikes out the first two hitters he faces and it looks as if he’ll extinguish a fairly tame fire over the final seven outs and the Rebels will get out of Texas with the two games they needed. Then he lets a 1-2 count leak into a walk, and then another walk to load the bases. Not great. Some of the pitch sequencing was interesting to me, but that is pretty far down on the list of second-guessing today. Up comes Will Frizell and now you’re potentially in a stick spot. Frizell had a measly four home runs on the weekend and plated the only two Aggies runs in this game. Broadway gets ahead 0-2 and Bianco — who is never bashful about wasting/spending/burning pitches based on whatever term you want to use — elects to challenge Frizzell with an elevated fastball. Broadway doesn’t elevate it enough, Frizell gets his hands on it and all of a sudden: Will Frizzell 6, Ole Miss 5.
Look, whatever your gripe is here, you probably have a valid but subjective one. I am probably walking Frizell there and letting a run score. The kid behind him was 2-12 on the weekend and the Aggies didn’t have a pinch-hit option that makes anyone tremble. Walking in a run and putting the now-tying run in scoring position is hardly ideal, but I am not letting the guy with four home runs on the weekend beat me. No one else in that lineup had done any damage that mirrors what Frizell did to the Rebels. I am walking him and taking my chances with Bost next up. Collin pointed out to me on the podcast that Broadway shook off a couple of sliders earlier in the inning. Did that factor into the decision not to dump a couple in the dirt to see if Frizell chases? Did Broadway shake off the initial call on that very pitch? I don’t know these answers. All I know is that an elevated fastball leaves the smallest margin for error in the game’s most consequential moment. It’s puzzling but I am not about to subjectively second guess a college head coach on how he pitches a game.
What is absolutely not subjective and is objectively horrific is what happened in the bottom of the eighth inning. Ole Miss had the first two reach on a McCants single and a Bench HBP. Damn, this offense is relentless and has shown it time and time again. They respond when things go bad on the mound. The four-run eighth after Diamond’s implosion on Friday was perhaps the greatest example of this. It’s a talented, relentless group of hitters.
Anyway, back to the madness. Hayden Leatherwood steps to the plate with two on and no one out. Leatherwood was 7-11 on the weekend with four RBI. He’s statistically the team’s best hitter in SEC play. Bianco took the bat out of his hands and elected to bunt Ben Van Cleve. Why? Ole Miss is last in the SEC in sac bunts. They presumably had moved away from this outdated concept. There’s zero chance Van Cleve is beating it out even if it is a good bunt. Ole Miss gave an A&M bullpen it had lambasted all weekend a free out. Woof. Next up, Bianco pinch hit for Cael Baker with Tim Elko . . . . with a base open. Guess what A&M did? Walked him. Calvin Harris up next. He’s yet to get a hit against a left-handed pitcher. Wouldn’t you have liked to have a pinch hitter here? Well, your two best pinch-hit options were just burned on a sacrifice bunt and an intentional walk. Harris sees lefties poorly and what happened next was not surprising. He grounded into a double play to end the inning. Ole Miss got the first two men on base in the inning with Jacob Gonzalez and the top of the order due up sixth and he never saw the plate. That’s hard to do.I am not sure how to begin to slice this up, but I will start with what I see as the most prudent play:
Hit your team’s best hitter (Leatherwood) with two on and no one out. You need at least two runs to win the game and are not in your final at bat.
If Leatherwood has a productive out that moves the runners up a base (so, trailing 6-5 still, with runners 2nd and 3rd and one out) i let Baker hit. Why pinch-hit Elko here with Harris up next? Yes, Tim Elko is undoubtedly a far superior hitter to Baker and less of a strikeout threat, but in that scenario at that point, all you’re looking for is a fly ball and is your confidence really swayed that greatly with Elko’s ability to do it versus Baker? I’d argue no.
Let’s say Baker strikes out and doesn’t get a run across. Ok. Two on, two outs. Now you’ve got your team captain and best hitter able to pinch hit for Harris in the exact situation you’d want him two. You need a base hit and there’s likely no one else you trust more to do it. Hell, even if Baker pushes one run across and it is tied or gets a hit and gives Ole Miss the lead, you can still hit Elko.
That’s my case for what I would have done. There are other options and avenues to put the team in the best chance to win. Hell, pinch-hit Elko for Leatherwood if you really want to that badly. It’s not statistically sound but it’s not giving the other team an out while simultaneously taking the hottest hitter in the lineup out of the game. Hit Leatherwood and pinch-hit Elko for Baker. It’s two cracks at tying the game or taking the lead and you haven’t given the opponent an out. Or do what I outlined and give Elko the highest-leverage at-bat of the game when you need him the most. The only possible scenario in which you can screw yourself out of two pinch-hit options without either one of them taking a swing is doing exactly what transpired yesterday. I have no logical argument to make for it. That argument doesn’t exist to my knowledge. If you have a defense, I would like to hear it.
Bianco was ejected soon after and Ole Miss lost a crucial game and a costly series. It’s a brutal way to lose to a bad team and essentially washed away any realistic hope of a national seed. The Rebels still have work to do to preserve a regional host site, but are currently in line to be one. But all of this feels irrelevant with the state of this club. Let’s dive into that, shall we.
Gunnar Hoglund pitched just 2/3 of an inning on Friday before leaving the game with forearm tightness. He’ll have an MRI today to assess the injury. I’ll just put it this way: I am not bullish on Hoglund pitching again in an Ole Miss uniform. This is just a hunch and not based on any information. But two weeks ago, he left a start with bicep stiffness. Now it’s a forearm issue. What’s in the middle of those two? The elbow, and more specifically, the UCL. I am no doctor and I am not diagnosing anything based off what I see on tv. All I am saying is that the early signs do not seem favorable and the kid is in line to be a first-round pick in a month and sign a contract that nets him generational wealth. There's no crystal ball to project Hoglund's future in an Ole Miss uniform, but the early clues don't forecast a pleasant outcome. I just hope the kid gets healthy without surgery as a requirement. He has an incredibly bright future ahead regardless of whether or not he's thrown his last pitch as a Rebel. If he has indeed pitched for the final time in college, this team's ceiling is lowered dramatically.Â
4. The rest of the weekend featured some good and some bad. Derek Diamond, despite being really good over a recent 12 inning stretch, continues to self-destruct with two outs. Friday's loss is tough to put squarely on his shoulders. He was thrust into a nearly impossible situation, even if was told before the game to be ready and he pitched pretty well for the most part. But his inability to mitigate damage when things begin to go awry is a costly flaw. Ole Miss led 4-3 with two outs and a man on first in the sixth inning on Friday night. Frizell hit a good pitch for a two-run shot. Okay, it was 5-4 with the bases empty and two down. That game wasn't ending 5-4. It was 8-4 by the time Ole Miss got back to the dugout. That's the issue that's plagued Diamond all year. A drizzle turns into a monsoon and puts the team in a hole.
Tim Elko's pinch-hit home run is as cool of a moment as you'll see in sports. Look at the joy on his face as he heads toward home plate and his teammates. Look at the faces of the team. Pure joy. It's a remarkable feat in its own right that he hit a baseball nearly 400 feet with a torn ACL, but doing it in a game, a month removed from the injury is insane. What a cool moment for Elko that's so well deserved. Is there a world where he becomes the every day DH? Maybe. But for now, he's one hell of a pinch-hit option and the fact that he is on the field helping the team win games is incredible.
I don't believe what I just saw! @TimElko, ladies and gentlemen: • April 5: Tore his ACL • May 8: First hit since then, a three-run home run to right field! 💻 es.pn/3tsSHm36. The Rebels are now 14-10 with six SEC games remaining. Vanderbilt comes to Oxford next weekend followed by a road trip to Georgia. If Ole Miss doesn't get swept in either, it has probably done enough to host a regional but a 3-3 mark would seal it. I think that's all they can realistically hope for at this point, which underscores how costly losing this series was for their postseason hopes.
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Bianco's bunting strategy offers a glimpse at his nerves
I have a theory. I cannot prove it, so let's get that out of the way first.It's just a thought. But the more I watch Ole Miss through the years, particularly in the last half decade that has seen Bianco and the program ditch the outdated small ball strategy, the more I am perplexed (like many of you) at the moments in which it creeps back onto the field. Yes, there are situational moments when a bunt is an acceptable play. It's a subjective argument on a preferred strategy. What I don't understand is when and why it is deployed. Ole Miss is last in the SEC in sac bunts. The Rebels simply don't do it. So why did they swing away with two on, no outs in the bottom of the ninth of a one-run game against LSU two weekends ago, only to bunt in the same scenario yesterday? I swear I believe it's a gauge of Bianco's nerves. That series opener against LSU was not vital to the team's postseason hopes, at least on its own in that moment. Yesterday's game was absolutely crucial to remaining in the national seed conversation and everyone knew it. What happened? He elected to bunt when things got tight. There are other examples over the years and maybe this is better suited in a researched article on its own, but I swear he reverts back to bunting like a nervous habit in the season's most crucial moments instead of trusting the philosophy that got them to that point. Maybe I am crazy and this makes no sense, but it is the only answer I can come up with as to why they have seemingly ditched the strategy, but yet randomly deploy at the strangest of times.Â
Around the SEC
Arkansas took two of three from Georgia - the Hogs just keep plugging along and will likely be the number one overall national seed.
Mississippi State took two of three at South Carolina - the SEC West is now a two-horse race. I don't think the Bulldogs will catch Arkansas, but I am not sure it matters other than hanging a banner. Mississippi State is playing great baseball as the postseason approaches
Vanderbilt took two of two from Alabama -- The last game was washed out due to weather. Jack Leiter missed his start with an injury. The Dores got back on track in the win-loss columns, but appear as vulnerable as they have been all year.Â
Florida took two of three from Kentucky -- Will the Gators have something to say about one of these eight national seeds after all? I don't think they get one but are firmly entrenched as a host.
LSU took two of three at Auburn - LSU missed a huge opportunity on Sunday to sweep and drastically change their postseason chances, but two of three on the road will never hurt you. Woof, what year Auburn has endured.
Tennessee swept Missouri on the road -- This is what great teams do. The Vols are a great team. What a weird sentence to type.Â
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