Rippee Writes: Monday Scoop
Season changing series, an odd loss in Starkville and some golf
Happy Monday to all. We’ve got a new podcast out with Collin Brister recapping Ole Miss’ series win over Vanderbilt. We got into lineup construction, what to do with Derek Diamond, the Jackson Kimbrell reemergence and more. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts.
We have a ton to dive into today. Let’s go.
Ole Miss takes series from Vanderbilt
The Rebels made a statement this weekend with their biggest series win of the year. That statement read something to the effect of 'we aren't done yet' despite losing their best pitcher and hitter for the season. Ole Miss bested Kumar Rocker on Friday and out-slugged a dangerous Commodores lineup on Sunday to secure a crucial series win to put themselves on the doorstep of locking up a host site, as well as vaulting them back into the national seeding conversation.
Here's some thoughts from the weekend.
1. It's hard to keep coming up with different ways to articulate how incredible Doug Nikhazy is and how valuable he is to this team. The left-hander hurled seven innings of one run ball with ten strikeouts and two walks. Friday night's game might have been the most important of the season. If there was ever a point in which this team, pushed to the brink, would wilt without anyone really blaming them for it, it was then. If Rocker stifles the Rebels with Leiter behind him the next day, on the heels of a bad series loss in College Station and losing your ace for the year, this weekend likely goes south in a hurry and this team's confidence might have taken a fatal blow. Nikhazy didn't allow that to happen. His offense got an early lead and he preserved it. You could tell that game mattered a ton to the team in the first base dugout. It was evident in the emotion with which they played. Nikhazy has been nails time and time again this year and he's the reason this team still has a chance to make a postseason run.
Nikhazy has now been the most important player on two different teams. He saved the 2019 team from cratering and is doing the same with this injury-riddled group. It's impossible to overstate his importance to the program and this team. He openly relishes the role of being the glue that holds it all together and has done one hell of a job doing just that.
2. Ole Miss was great at the plate offensively this weekend, particularly against Rocker. T.J. McCants hit a pretty damn good pitch over the right-center wall and Kevin Graham punished Rocker for a mistake. Friday and Sunday showed this offense is capable of getting to any pitcher and any pitching staff in the country. This lineup puts so much stress on an opposing pitcher because there are hardly any holes. Even nine-hole hitter Cael Baker, whatever you may think of the strikeout rate, is going to pummel a fastball if it's misplaced. Every hitter requires a pitcher's full attention and that becomes incredibly taxing as the game gets into the middle and later innings. Ole Miss has a chance against anyone it plays because it will score enough runs to overcome its deficiencies on the mound. There aren't very many teams in the sport that can say that.
3. What T.J. McCants and Jacob Gonzalez are doing as true freshmen is just insane. McCants is now hitting .367 with a 1.016 OPS in SEC PLAY(!). That's the best mark on the team. He's putting together arguably the best freshman season in the history of the program and has not fallen off as the scouting report on him grows. In fact, he's gotten even better if you look at his numbers the last three weekends. Freshmen don't come into this league and do this immediately. This is truly remarkable stuff you may not see again. Gonzalez isn't far behind. He belted two crucial home runs in yesterday's rubber match and is batting .321 with five home runs and a team leading 24 RBI in league play. McCants and Gonzalez are the team's two leading home run hitters in SEC play (5 each). Make no mistake about it, this would be a pretty good offense if these two hit like typical freshmen, but it is an elite one because of the seasons they are having. They're the driving force. It's becoming inarguable.
4. Jackson Kimbrell was the most important pitcher in the Sunday win and his potential reemergence would be a game changer for a bullpen searching for answers. The only left-handed option in this bullpen collected 11 crucial outs and allowed just two runs on a day in which the ballpark was a launching pad. Credit to Mike Bianco for seeing the struggles Vanderbilt has had against left-handed pitching and going to Kimbrell despite his struggles. Velocity and stuff has never been Kimbrell's issue, it's command and location. He was in the strike zone yesterday and was successful because of it. That's no coincidence. If he can replicate this and find consistency, it would be a huge revelation for the Rebels. This weekend was a prelude to what you're going to see going forward with this bullpen. Use Broadway and Dougherty when you can, go to Myers after that and then just keep firing bullets like Kimbrell, Miller, Forsyth and Burton (I know Burton didn't pitch. Forsyth warmed alongside Broadway on Sunday) and see if anything sticks. Kimbrell stuck and Ole Miss won its first rubber match because of it.
5. Derek Diamond wasn't good enough on Saturday, though who knows if it really mattered with the way Leiter pitched. Diamond made a couple of mistakes on hanging breaking pitches that Vandy punished like a good offense does. But Diamond also was unable to mitigate the damage once again. A two-run homer in the fourth to make it 3-0 was quickly followed by another with two outs and a 5-0 deficit against Leiter was a death sentence. The frustrating part about Diamond is that it seems more mental than physical. Hell, he threw a nasty slider to freeze the next hitter to finally get out of the inning. Where is that pitch with a pair of men on base? He walks off the mound at times looking like his confidence has been hurt and it's hard to figure out why. He's struggled, but not nearly as badly as others on this team that have since rebounded to get meaningful outs. Someone needs to find him some, because there is no other option. Ole Miss needs Diamond to be good to win the postseason. There's no way around it.
The other thing with Diamond is that he struggles significantly the second time through the order. This was again the case on Saturday. I am not sure how Ole Miss combats that. Eventually it will need more length than 3-4 innings from him so I am not sure yanking him is an option. I suppose you just pray for 4-5 innings, try to find something with Doughery or Myers if they didn't have to pitch the night before and then just assess where you're at in the eighth. I don't know what else to do, but they cannot keep letting the second time through the opposing order with Diamond on the mound put them in a 5-6 run hole. The opposing pitchers they'll face the rest of the way are too good for them to overcome that consistently.
6. Hayden Leatherwood is hitting .367 in SEC play. He should not be batting eighth. Thanks for coming to my speech.
7. Peyton Chatagnier has had a rough month. I think he rebounds, but moving him out of the two-hole would be wise.
8. I think you go with McDaniel against a four seed to begin a regional instead of Diamond. McDaniel keeps Ole Miss in games and the Rebels are going to score enough runs against a mid-major pitching staff that all they need is to not fall in like a 6-0 hole or something weird. I am not contradicting myself here. Ole Miss still needs Diamond, but I am trusting McDaniel in that 1 vs 4 seed matchup should it come to it.
9. Ole Miss is now 16-11 with one weekend left. With as much of a drag as this season has felt at times, there have been very few teams in the Bianco era that entered the last weekend with a legitimate shot at 19 wins and only a handful that have gotten to the 18-19 SEC win range. The Rebels are right where they need to be. One win in Athens cements them as hosts, two puts them in the national seed discussion with work to be done in Hoover and three wins would put them at 19-11, and if a 19-win SEC team isn't selected as a national seed, then they need to reevaluate everything about this process. In most years, 18 wins is a lock for a national seed, but this year is different due to COVID having a weird effect on some teams' RPI and this league being oddly top heavy. If Ole Miss can take two in Athens and win a game or two in Hoover, the committee is going to have a hard time leaving them out of the top eight even if it is five SEC schools.
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Around the SEC:
- LSU took two of three from Alabama. A huge missed opportunity for the Tide to all but lock up an NCAA Tournament bid. Perhaps LSU isn't dead just yet.
- Arkansas took two of three at Tennessee. These teams got into a dust up at the end of a highly-competitive series. The Razorbacks have been machine-like and will be the number one overall seed.
- Missouri took two of three at Mississippi State. I don't know what to say about this one. State had everything to play for with the SEC West still up for grabs and were fortunate to not get swept by the worst team in the conference. One bad weekend is just one bad weekend, but it's certainly eye-brow raising for Bulldog fans. What an odd result.
- Auburn took two of three from A&M. The pillow fight to get into Hoover continues. The Aggies cost themselves a chance to lock that up.
- South Carolina swept Kentucky. That's a huge get-right weekend for the Gamecocks after just barely sneaking in as one of the potential 20 host sites named on Friday. That puts them in good position to host now after being on the outside looking in.
- Florida took two of three from Georgia. The Gators are crawling toward a national seed. Ole Miss should root for them to lose out and replicate their success against Georgia this weekend.
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Thornberry notches a top 10 at Korn Ferry Event in Knoxville
Braden Thornberry earned a top 10 finish over the weekend thanks to a pair of weekend 67s. He's got four top tens in this wraparound season and moved up to 47th in the standings. He's within striking distance of cracking the top 25 and earning a tour card.
Incredulous strike call yesterday
I guess I missed this pitch happening yesterday, but this video is just amazing. You know it's a bad call when Dunhurst goes to throw the ball back to the pitcher and then has to double take, stop and hop to the dugout acting like he knew it was a strike. Ole Miss was due for a good break, I guess, but goodness what a miserable call.
The reaction of the fans directly to the left of home plate is pretty hilarious too.
On the horizon:
- Week of newsletters with baseball, golf and anything else that pops up
- long form story on baseball and people
- Two more pods and another potential live show with Collin and me.
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Enjoy the deals that come with it. Send to your friends and tell them to join the fun. Have a wonderful start to your week.