Rippee Writes: let's talk about fourth down
A look at the receiver injuries, analytics, and a fascinating month of November ahead
Hope everyone is having a good Monday. We’ve got a new podcast out with Weldon Rotenberg that features about two hours of discussion on Ole Miss’s loss to Auburn and where a banged-up Rebels team goes from here. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
If you missed Friday’s podcast with former Ole Miss wide receiver Bill Flowers, you can check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts as well.
We’ve got a lot of football to dive into today.
Injuries, red zone woes doom Rebels on The Plains
Well, that was ugly. Ole Miss lost 31-20 and it was sort of a miracle the Rebels were in that game as long as they were. I can’t be the only one who watched the game and thought to myself, on multiple occasions, ‘how in the hell are they still in this thing with a real chance to win?’
Ole Miss couldn’t stop Auburn in the first half. Bryan Harsin and Mike Bobo out-schemed the Rebels. A combination of that and the Tigers’ running game having success early made life pretty easy for Bo Nix, who finished 22-30 for 276 yards and a touchdown through the air and ran for two more.
The defense played better in the second half and seemingly forced Nix to actually have to make somewhat difficult throws, but the barrage of injuries finally caught up the offense as Ole Miss put up just three points in the final two quarters.
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The WR depth is a potentially catastrophic issue
When Dontario Drummond came up limping early in the second quarter after a route over the middle, you could sense Ole Miss was in trouble. Already down Jonathan Mingo, Braylon Sanders stood on the sideline dressed out but never entered the game. This offense isn’t built to overcome the loss of its top three receivers. I don’t really know an offense that is. We knew there was a depth issue here before the season began, but playing without your top three players at any position qualifies as decimated by injuries and it became too much for Ole Miss to overcome. Drummond returned to the game but briefly, but was clearly compromised and didn’t play much at all after the initial injury aside from a snap or two. All four of his catches came within the first 26 minutes of the game — which is roughly the point in which he got injured. The point is that he wasn’t a factor even though he admirably toughed it out and stayed on the field.
The absence of this trio was evident in how the offense executed after Drummond left. They are clearly the only receivers the coaching staff trusts, aside from maybe Jahcour Pearson. I truly have no idea where Ole Miss goes from here, at least in the short term. This will be addressed in the offseason via the transfer portal. I can pretty much promise you that. Kiffin and this staff will be in the market for multiple impact receivers. But for now, Ole Miss is left with a bunch of guys that haven’t developed as planned. Kiffin made a comment in his Monday press conference about guys not knowing how to line up and where to go. That seems suboptimal. I really don’t see a lot of merit in trying to assign blame for this. This current staff didn’t recruit the majority of these kids, though them not knowing basic things such as where to line up and what to do seems like a poor reflection on the players themselves as well as the coaching staff. Credit to Pearson for stepping up in this game. He played his ass off in adverse circumstances and finished with seven catches for 135 yards. Ole Miss simply can’t survive long-term with him as the No. 1 option, but he did as well as he possibly could when him being the No. 1 option was the only option. I was going try to give you a list of names to look for as potential options to fill in, but you know all of them and none of them seem viable. Hell, Miles Battle is taking snaps at receiver again despite him and the coaching staff saying his future is at corner. That sort of epitomizes where Ole Miss is with the receiving corps.
The bottom line is this: if Ole Miss doesn’t get one or more of these guys healthy before Texas A&M comes to Oxford in two weeks, the Rebels aren’t winning that game. Same goes for the Egg Bowl two weeks after that. I will admit that I believe Ole Miss could beat Vanderbilt with me running routes for Corral. But the Rebels have to get healthy. I am not sure what the issue is with Sanders. I figured at some point he’d feel the natural sense of desperation and urgency that most athletes feel as the clock winds down on their college career. I thought him dressing out but not playing (I haven’t seen the snap counts yet. If he did play, then I stand corrected, but I didn’t notice him out there) was odd. He’s missed two-and-a-half games now. At what point will he feel healthy enough to go? Your guess is as good as mine on Mingo. If it is in fact a Jones fracture, then it seems unlikely he’d return. If it’s just a broken foot then… hell, I don’t know. I am not a doctor. I figure Drummond will be back at some point, but again, who knows. Kiffin said on Monday that if the Rebels had a game today, none of the three would play. That’s not a great sign. I think Ole Miss can get by Liberty without them, but after that, this team is sunk if all three miss the Texas A&M game as well as the Egg Bowl. I do not see how the offense will be able to operate at a high enough level to win either game.
Ole Miss got by Tennessee and LSU with a depleted receivers group. But the loss of Drummond is clearly the hole that sank the ship. It was simply too much to overcome.
Corral’s health is a concern, too.
Injuries have decimated a team that was built on the foundation of its offense being elite, and virtually all of those injuries have come on the offense side of the football. The quarterback hasn’t been spared from it either. I should just copy and paste what I wrote about Corral after the Tennessee game in terms of his toughness. The kid is a warrior. You all don’t need me to tell you that. When the broadcast showed the replay of Corral’s left ankle getting rolled up, coupled with his reaction to, I didn’t think there was a chance in hell he would return to the game. I don’t think Lane Kiffin did either when he knelt on the sidelines with his hands cupped together over his face almost as if he were praying. But Corral told the trainers as he was carted off to get an MRI in the locker room that “if nothing is broken I am coming back and playing.” Sure, enough, he came back into the game. He clearly wasn’t healthy but fought admirably.
I thought his interception was a product of the dysfunction around him. We haven’t seen a Corral interception like that all season. Mostly because he’s only thrown two the whole year, but what I mean by that is that looked like a Matt Corral 2020 interception — on first down, throwing slightly back across his body into traffic in the red zone. It’s uncharacteristic of 2021 Matt Corral, but I think it was a product of him sensing the team needed a spark and he tried to make a play with a depleted offense. I thought the fourth-down throw into the flats to Casey Kelly was a product of his ailing feet. Corral didn’t set his feet and sort of game it the Patrick Mahomes sidearm action. We haven’t seen Corral be that lackadaisical with his feet and attention to detail all year. I’m just guessing of course, but the throw was less than 15 feet and Corral missed it worse than he’s missed any deep ball all season long. That has to be a product of his ankle either hurting — or him not feeling them at all due to whatever they shot him up with when he was in the locker room. It’s just a hunch, but if feels like a logical one.
Corral has now had an ankle injury in two of the last three weeks. I don’t think he will be fully healthy for the remainder of the year. I think he will be playing somewhat hurt every time he puts his pads on for the rest of the season, other than potentially having a month off between the Egg Bowl and the bowl game or something like that. I don’t think Ole Miss can afford to sit him against Liberty this week. I doubt that is even on the table provided that he is healthy enough to play in the first place. It would, however, be incredibly beneficial if Ole Miss could ride its defense and running game to a sizable lead and rest him and anyone else who needs it. That is stating the obvious, but I am curious to see how Corral is used this week and how long he stays in the game. It is sort of crap luck to have the November SEC built-in bye week come against a team with a first-round draft pick at quarterback and a man that beat Lane Kiffin and Alabama twice as the opposing head coach. So it goes.
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4th down decision making was a hot topic again
I don’t feel like writing about two sides of the debate centered around Kiffin’s general approach toward fourth down and the use of analytics. But I will outline each scenario and offer my thoughts. There were three failed fourth downs in the second half. I thought one was the right call, I understood both sides of another and I thought one was stupid. Here’s why.
4th & 1 at the Auburn 20 with 9:14 left in the third quarter. Ole Miss trailed 28-17. Rippee’s verdict: correct decision.
This was the 4th and short that resulted in an errant pass to Casey Kelly in the flats. I think this one is the easiest one to decide on. I don’t really understand the opposition to this decision. Ole Miss trailed 28-17. The offense had just gone three-and-out for the second time in less than six minutes to start the third quarter. The defense was closer to the first half performance in which they were gashed than they were to what ended up being a pretty good effort in the second half. Auburn had just given Ole Miss a gift via a muffed punt. In this modern age of football, everyone is going for it in this situation, analytics be damned. Lou Holtz likely would’ve gone for it and I would guess if you asked him about analytics he’d think you were talking about a football injury to your rectum.
You can argue the play call all you want. I will listen to that. I thought it was a product of Ole Miss being timid to run the football between the tackles in a stacked box due to the injuries and reshuffling on the interior offensive line. If Corral makes an accurate throw, it’s converted and this conversation is moot. Ole Miss needed six points there and needed to punish Auburn for a mistake.
4th & 7 from the Auburn 13 yard line with 1:08 left in the 3rd quarter. Ole Miss trailed 28-20. Rippee verdict: ehh?
This one, I can see both sides. How valuable is a field goal in this scenario with basically one quarter to play? Sure, it gives your defense a little more wiggle room in keeping it a one-score game. But it’s not like it cuts the deficit enough to where another field goal ties it or gives Ole Miss a lead. Go for the touchdown. The Rebels hadn’t had one in almost a quarter-and-a-half of game time and who knows if they’d that close again.
The case against it is this: what play call do you feel great about there with a banged-up quarterback, a depleted receiving corps and a struggling running game? Kick the field goal, inch closer and keep clawing away at the deficit. The play call didn’t end up mattering. One of the linemen got absolutely torched on this play, if I remember correctly and Corral had a 265 lb. behemoth in his face immediately. Tough sledding. I understand both sides of this one. But I suppose I will lean slightly more toward it being the right call.
4th & 3 at the Auburn 18 with 4:53 remaining in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss trailed 31-10. Rippee verdict: bad decision.
This is the one I didn’t understand. You needed two scores anyway. A field goal accomplishes the goal of making it a one-score game. Lane Kiffin would tell you that making the field goal is no guarantee. He’s right, I guess. But Caden Costa has been terrific this year and already nailed one from 49 earlier in the game. It’s not a certainty, but I would have felt pretty good about him making a 35-yard field goal in that situation.
I suppose the case against it is that you are banking on the defense getting a stop almost immediately. A couple of first downs or a chunk play into field goal range for Auburn effectively ends the game. And with a conversion and an eventual touchdown plus a two-point conversion (also not a guarantee, mind you), you don’t need as much time to set up. potential game-tying field goal than you do to take the ball down the field with no timeouts needing to get into the end zone. In real time, I doubted that the analytics actually told Kiffin to go for it in this spot, but someone tagged me in this tweet. I have no idea how legitimate it is, and I generally don’t take much I see on Twitter as absolute fact, but I found this interesting:
Ole Miss (20) @ Auburn (31) Ole Miss has 4th & 3 at the AUB 18 Recommendation (MEDIUM): 👉 Go for it (+2.8 WP) Actual play: 👉 Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis Jackson
Regardless of what the nerds say, I would have kicked and extended the game longer. The defense had held firm in the second half to the tune of three points allowed and a turnover that afforded Ole Miss the opportunity in the first place. Oh well.
Ole Miss has lived by the analytics and fourth down aggression this year. It died by them in both road trips to the great state of Alabama. Get used to it. Like it or not, it isn’t changing, though I do wonder if they begin to value third down a little bit more than they have in the past. I wouldn’t hold my breath regarding that either.
The officiating in this game was terrible
I don’t want to spend a ton of time on this. The officiating in this game was terrible and one-sided. You know it. I know it. Anyone who watched knows it. I don’t think there is some grand conspiracy against Ole Miss. I don’t think it decided the outcome of the game. I do think the SEC officials are incompetent and I don’t believe that will change unless the league elects to throw money at the problem and hire full-time officials. I don’t see that happening because there is no incentive to fix this issue. You will continue to watch. You will continue to go to games and revenue will continue to skyrocket. I am not preaching. I am in the same boat There is zero incentive to fix the problem because none of us are changing the channel. This is what you get for tying your emotions to a sport that makes FIFA look like a well-run operation and Major League Baseball look like an even playing field. College football is an unbalanced circus. It is what it is. That’s not changing. Enjoy the pageantry of it but don’t expect accountability and parity. It doesn’t exist.
Final thoughts
This was always going to be a tough place for Ole Miss to win. The Rebels don’t win at Auburn often. Ole Miss has only beaten Auburn five times since 1992. And entering the game with a depleted receiving corps, a banged-up offensive line and a hobbled quarterback was always going to be difficult. I understand the frustrating aspect of it. Despite all of the things working against Ole Miss, officiating included, it had multiple chances to make it a one-score game in the second half and could’ve very well won it despite all of those factors. I think that is why Kiffin sounded so dejected after the game, more so than usual.
This team is in a precarious spot as it enters the month of November. There is still a ton to play four. Four wins and a 10-2 record would give Ole Miss a great case for a New Year’s Six bowl game. A 3-1 finish would land the Rebels in a great bowl game in Florida. A 2-2 finish and an 8-4 record, weirdly enough, would feel like a disappointment given how the season started. All of these scenarios are still in play. But Ole Miss first and foremost needs to get healthy, because the former two possibilities become incredibly less likely if the Rebels roll into November with the same injury issues on offense that it currently has. This will be a fascinating month to finish the season.
A look around the SEC
This will be brief, considering there were only three other games this week.
Mississippi State beats Kentucky 31-17 - Mike Leach has his team playing well in the second half of the season for the second consecutive year. Kentucky was probably a little overrated, but that doesn’t diminish this win for the Bulldogs It guaranteed them bowl eligibility. Suddenly, the Egg Bowl looks a lot dicier for Ole Miss. MSU travels to Arkansas this week for what should be a fascinating matchup.
Georgia beat Florida 34-7 - This was a game for most of the first half until the Georgia defense decided it didn’t want it to be a game anymore. This Bulldog defense is the best in the country and potentially the best we have seen in this sport in some time. Dan Mullen, on the other hand, is now 2-7 in his last nine games against power-five opponents and the talent gap between the Gators and Georgia is widening. I *think* Mullen survives this year with mandatory staff changes at the end of the season, but I wouldn’t be stunned if he left for another job or was fired.
Missouri beat Vanderbilt 37-28 - credit to the Commodores for not quitting. I don’t have much else to add.
On the horizon:
Football-centric newsletters with a pair of podcasts mixed in
Friday picks podcast
A Magnolia State Golf Update
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by smashing the subscribe button below. It is free