Rippee Writes: injury bug hits Rebels
Some injury updates, an Arkansas scout and a Magnolia State golf update
Hope everyone is having a good Thursday. We’ve got a new podcast out with an open monologue about why we will learn a lot more about Ole Miss this weekend than last, followed by an interview with Kevin Bohannon of HawgTalk. He gave us a better idea of what to expect from the Razorbacks in a vitally important game for both programs. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts.
Today, we’ve got a lot of football thoughts, Arkansas and injury notes and some golf at the end.
Injury bug bites Rebels post-Alabama
I guess you could chalk this up to the cliched Alabama Effect? You know, the perceived physical toll you see a team endure the week after playing the Crimson Tide that is unlike any other opponent. But that’s not really case. Jerrion Ealy was reportedly in concussion protocol during the game, which would explain his snap count being in the teens last week. Ole Miss also lost Caleb Warren at some point in the last few days with a leg injury that will keep him out until at least the the end of the month. This is not great, obviously.
I think Ole Miss will be fine without Ealy. If anything, it’ll force Lane Kiffin and Jeff Lebby to give more carries to Henry Parrish, and more topically, Snoop Conner. Also, Kentrell Bullock has a chance to be a good running back for Ole Miss in a year or two. He’s simply buried in a deep running back room right now. Yes, Ole Miss is better with a healthy Jerrion Ealy but not all voids are equal and I think the one he leaves is smaller than, say, an injury on the offensive line.
Speaking of the offensive line, Warren’s injury is clearly the more significant. Ole Miss has very little proven line depth, and while it is easier to get by with average guard play than having bad tackles, this is less than ideal timing for a group coming off of its worst performance of the season. Arkansas’s defensive line has been the story of its defense this year and the Rebels being down a man, in a game in which they absolutely must run the football successfully, is not great for them to say the least. As far as a replacement is concerned, the first guess I had was South Carolina transfer Jordan Rhodes, but I suppose Cedric Melton is also a possibility along with Eli Acker. Again, this isn’t impossible to work around by any means, but it’s more significant than potentially not having Ealy or Jonathan Mingo.
The stats speak louder than anything I can say: A 5-2 week in the NFL for SkyBox to follow up a 9-1 week. Plus, they hit a NASCAR winner at +1400. If you’re into wagering, what are you doing not utilizing them? Check them out here. They have a picks package for your preferred sport that will fit your price range. You’re missing out by not going to pay them your business. It will pay off in your bank account. Use the promo code “rippee” for 20 percent off any purchase. Oh, and the free plays they have given our podcast listeners are 6-1. These guys are the real deal.
Get to know Arkansas
The Razorbacks are in a similar position to Ole Miss in terms of getting pummeled against a top-two team in the country and wanting to flush it and move on to a more important contest. Arkansas is off to a surprising 4-1 start with wins over Texas and Texas A&M. But those wins should also be viewed in proper context. It’s pretty simple with Texas A&M: the Aggies are terrible offensively with an inaccurate (backup) quarterback in an outdated scheme and have not been as good as advertised on the defensive side of the ball (which was really the only reason they were ranked so high to being the year in the first place). Texas switched quarterbacks after the loss in Fayetteville and has looked like a completely different team. Neither win should be discounted, but if you were like me and wondering what Arkansas’s ceiling actually was two weeks ago after running over A&M, now you have a better idea of what the Razorbacks are and that likely falls closer to what your preseason expectations of them were. Let’s have a look at them.
Arkansas loves to run the football. It averages 224 yards per game and virtually everything it does on the ground runs through quarterback K.J. Jefferson and running back Trelon Smith. The pair account for basically half of the team’s 217 carries on the year and are a pretty dynamic tandem. Smith is quick at 5-foot-9, 170 lbs. and runs well between the tackles. His build is similar to slightly slimmer Scottie Phillips and he’s got decent enough hands to be a factor in the passing game out of the backfield. Jefferson is like a like a linebacker playing quarterback. He’s a great athlete and tough to bring down. If Ole Miss is going to win this game, it’s going to have to fare much better against between-the-tackles running concepts than it did last week. Arkansas will likely be even more committed to it due to its inability to consistently push the ball down the field through the air.
Health is a key when it comes to Jefferson. He missed part of the second half of the A&M game after suffering a leg injury. If you look at the stats against Georgia, there’s nothing unusual about number of carries (8) Jefferson had, which is right on par with where he’s been this season. But three of those were sacks, he only totaled five yards and if you watch any clip of that game and contrast it to any of the other four Arkansas has played, he did not the same running the ball. Jefferson’s health is something to monitor in the early stages of this game.
When Jefferson does throw the ball, he usually finds Treylon Burks, who is a top four receiver in the conference and one of the best in the sport. If the name sounds familiar to you, it’s be cause he caught 11 passes for 137 yards and a score against the Rebels last year. He’s caught 22 of 54 passes Jefferson has completed on the season
With as much focus as was placed on Jefferson’s shortcomings as a passer, it likely kept some, myself included, from recognizing how good Arkansas is in the trenches. The offensive line is experienced and wins individual battles than it loses. The defensive line features a trio of transfers that have altered the perception of how this Razorback defense is viewed. John Ridgeway is an Illinois State transfer and a behemoth of a human being at nose tackle. Tre Williams is probably the biggest surprise of the season with four sacks. Barry Odom brought both he and Markell Utsey over from Missouri. This defensive line is tough and will be a handful for the Rebels.
We knew Arkansas would be good at linebacker with veterans Bumper Pool (all-name team candidate, and no, it’s not a nickname. I checked) and Grant Morgan. I am no schematic genius, but it seems like the defensive line’s ability to get pressure with three rushers has freed up what Barry Odom can do with his linebackers. In fact, Arkansas has been more aggressive blitzing than it was a season ago and are pretty creative with how they use their linebackers.
Speaking of rushing three, who wants to hear another rehashing of Matt Corral throwing six picks against drop-eight coverage? What an original storyline. I get it though. I don’t think Arkansas will sit back in as much drop eight as it did last year. I would guess they saw what Alabama did in putting five or six in the box and forcing Ole Miss to throw to beat them and will likely do something similar. Don’t get me wrong, there will be drop-eight coverage on Saturday, but I think Odom is keen enough to realize Corral is better suited to combat it this time around and will likely want to pressure him a little more.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to deduce that Arkansas is going to do exactly what Alabama did to Ole Miss: run the football between the tackles repeatedly and take away the run on the other side. How the Rebels combat the running game, whether it’s altering the 3-2-6 look or adding another linebacker, they’re not winning this game if they are as bad against the run as they were last week. It’s a tough spot to be in. Ole Miss doesn’t have the depth nor the front end talent on the defensive line to do a whole lot else up front. It’s simply going to have to be better with what it has. This will be a telling test for D.J. Durkin and Chris Partridge. Ole Miss can win by turning the game into a shootout, but whether it plays well enough on offense to accomplish that is far from certain. If they run for two yards a pop like last week, the chances are virtually zero.
Current Deal: For being a loyal subscriber, show him proof of subscription and you’ll get a 16 oz. prime strip for $15 and a pack of sausage for $5. That’s a hell of a dinner on the grill for 20 bucks. Go check him out, it’s the best place in Mississippi to get meat and Oxford is lucky to have it.
First 5,000 get free popcorn
Lane Kiffin has leaned into the ribbing he’s received for his “get your popcorn,” remarks prior to kickoff in Tuscaloosa. Apparently the first 5,000 people through the gates on Saturday get a free thing of popcorn.
None of this matters in the slightest, but if you’re an Ole Miss fan, you should be glad to see self-awareness from the man running your football program and the athletic department as a whole. That wasn’t always the case and was lacking through some pretty brutal times over the last half decade. It’s all in good fun.
I think we will learn a lot about Kiffin this week in how his football team responds to the first real slice of humble pie Ole Miss has received since he took over as head coach.
Press conference quick hits
Ole Miss has had media availability a couple of times this week. I have been swamped at work and didn’t have a chance to write about it until now. A couple things stood out.
Kiffin was asked about analytics versus feel when it comes to in-game strategy and decision making. He basically said he takes both into account and doesn’t strictly go by the analytics book. He cited an example early in the year when the book said to punt and the Rebels went for it because of how the offense was playing, and converted. He added it’s also based on how the team and the opponent are playing that moment.
He was also asked about the offensive line and how much of it was a talent disparity versus scheme. He gave an expected answer but then expanded on it saying that there are two teams in the sport in a class of their own and then there is everyone else. Clearly, he’s talking about Alabama and Georgia. It isn’t a groundbreaking declaration, but the honesty is refreshing.
Kiffin also took a question about why John Rhys Plumlee didn’t play on Saturday and his lack of involvement in the offense this year. Kiffin basically said it’s tough being Drummond’s backup just like it was tough being Corral’s back up. My take is this: if Plumlee was ever going to be a factor at receiver, you would have seen it on Saturday. Clearly there is something lacking regarding his skillset and development at the position that is keeping him from getting on the field. I don’t know what it is. I am like most of you in that I am a bit puzzled they haven’t found a way to use his speed, even if it’s sparingly. But, again, I feel like they would’ve done it by now if they felt he could be a significant playmaker for them. Who knows.
Magnolia State golf update
We’ve got some college and pro notes to get to today.
The PGA Tour is in Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children’s Open this week. All three Mississippians on the PGA Tour are in the field, which is a great sign. When you have the base level of status as a PGA Tour rookie, getting into events is hard and you had better make the most of each opportunity.
Tupelo native and Missouri alum Hayden Buckley did just that last week. He finished T-4 at the Sanderson in Jackson last week, an incredible week in his home state. Buckley made $280,000 by way of a Sunday 66 and flirted with holding a share of the lead. It’s hard to overstate how massive a finish like this is for a rookie in his second event of the season. It got him into the Shriner’s this week, which wasn’t guaranteed when he teed off on Sunday afternoon. Speaking of that, he’s at it again. Buckley teed off at 10:30 this morning and is 4-under thru 12 as of this writing, thanks in large part to this nifty ace on the 18th (his ninth hole of the day).
It’s Buckley’s second in nine days. He aced the par-3 13th at CCJ in a Tuesday practice round. Who among us hasn’t had two of these in a week-long stretch? Real relatable stuff. He’s dialed in to say the least and changing his life by the round. He goes off at 3:30 (CT) tomorrow afternoon.
Fulton native and Mississippi State alum Chad Ramey teed off at 10:41 this morning and is 3-under thru 12 as of this writing. Ramey made the cut last week, but struggled on the weekend to a t-63 finish. He’s now made the cut in 27 of his last 28 professional starts. Seems good. He tees off at 3:41 tomorrow afternoon.
Hattiesburg native and Alabama alum Davis Riley goes off at 3:41 this afternoon and at 10:41 on Friday morning. Riley missed the cut at the Sanderson last week. The two-time Korn Ferry Tour winner is looking to make his first cut of his rookie season.
Rebels place third in Fayetteville
The Ole Miss men’s team notched at third place finish at The Blessings Collegiate Invitational just outside of Fayetteville, Arkansas. Jackson Suber finished T-6 individually with a 7-under 65 on day two. Sophomore Brett Schell notched t-12 result and was in red figures for two of the three days. That’s a solid start to the fall season for Chris Malloy’s group.
On the horizon
Preview pod with Weldon Rotenberg and Friday picks with Greg
Football Friday newsletter
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun. It is free.