Rippee Writes: Friday Scoop
Baseball, baseball and more baseball
Happy Friday to all. We have a new Mailbag Friday podcast out, answering your questions and previewing all things Ole Miss - Texas A&M. Check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts. A ton of baseball to dive into today.
Let’s go.
Ole Miss begins road test at Texas A&M
Ole Miss is in the greatest state in this fine country (just got a Texas license plate and they told me I had to say that or it would be withheld) this weekend to begin a road series at Texas A&M. The Aggies are not good. There aren’t many other ways to slice it. Two of their starters, Ray Alajo and Bryce Blaum are former Ole Miss Rebels that transferred out because they were never going to play on a regular basis. Blaum is a little more complicated than that. He is a good player but thought he should be starting in the middle infield in 2017, as a true freshman, over Grae Kessinger or Tate Blackman. I admire the confidence but not the rationality. Texas A&M is 5-16 and has a total of just 87 RBI in league play. This team struggles to hit and pitch. Ole Miss needs two at minimum. Here’s a closer look.
The Aggies shook up their rotation. They’ll trot out two lefties in Dustin Saenz and Chris Weber the first two days and are TBA on Sunday. The team’s best pitcher is a guy named Bryce Miller. He's got the best numbers on the team and all nine of his appearances this season are starts, meaning he has been a mainstay in the rotation since SEC play began. The idea here is similar to what you saw Florida do to Ole Miss in the series opener last month: see if you can get through four or five innings with a lead and have your best guy come in and preserve it. It worked for the Gators. LSU did it in a different way without intending to -- their best reliever entered in the sixth inning and finished the game because he was so dominant. I don't read much into this past the fact that Texas A&M skipper Rob Childress knows his group has had a rough go of it and views this as his best chance to try to win at least one game. I don't hate the strategy but don't think it is some revolutionary concept either. He's just trying to make something happen. I can't blame him. My guess is, that if this opportunity doesn't arrive and Ole Miss controls the first two games, then you'll see Miller start on Sunday.
The Aggies are a bottom four offense in the conference by every metric. They've only driven in 87 runs total in 21 conference games. Two guys to watch out for are DH Will Frizzell and 1B Austin Bost. Both guys hit for power, get on base a lot and neither strike out at a high rate. Beyond that, this lineup is somewhat toothless. A&M walks at a pretty good rate, but hasn't had much luck turning free passes into runs, and the idea that it'll improve against a club like Ole Miss that generates a ton of strikeouts seems far-fetched.Â
If Ole Miss plays well, it will win at least two games and have a shot at three. It's really the same playbook as last weekend. The Rebels didn't make an error over three games. They are not a great defensive team by any metric, but they made the routine plays look routine and did not give the opponent unearned runs. Can Ole Miss manage to do that again? If so, it will be a good weekend in all likelihood. If the Rebels kick the ball around as they did against LSU, Florida and Arkansas, and fall behind early in one of the first two games, then they could be in a fight to get out of this series with two wins. Losing this series would all but crush any national seed hopes they have and would make the hosting picture slightly murkier, too.
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What I am looking for from Ole MissÂ
1. So the newsworthy item from yesterday was Ole Miss' decision to go TBA on its Sunday starter. At first, I didn't know what to think. Then I decided it was likely nothing and that if Ole Miss was fortunate enough to not have to use Derek Diamond in the first two games, then he may get the nod over Drew McDaniel. Then, I thought, why would this be the weekend Mike Bianco doesn't pencil in McDaniel as the starter? Last week he had a rough start but actually showed the characteristics of a good Sunday starter -- he battled, didn't let the game unravel, and gave Ole Miss a chance. After the three-run shot in the first inning, McDaniel retired eight of the next 10 hitters. That was a big reason why Ole Miss won the game. If you were going to do the TBA thing, wouldn't it be after LSU shelled him? I am not saying he should have. I think that would have been shortsighted. I am merely pointing out the odd timing of this.Â
Then came the conclusion.
If you're a podcast listener, you're going to hear Collin and I talk this out (with admittedly minimal brainpower) and stumble upon the most likely conclusion: Jack Dougherty. When you think about it, that's the only thing that's changed from last weekend. Dougherty was absolutely dominant in 3.2 innings of perfect relief. Is it as simple as Bianco seeing what he did and giving the kid a shot and hoping Ole Miss can start a game that way, as opposed to falling behind like they have on so many series finales? It's a lot to handle for a kid who was redshirting three weeks ago and has a grand total of two SEC appearances, but at a certain point, getting outs matters, and his stuff is electric. The other options don't make sense. Diamond is settling nicely into a versatile bullpen role. McDaniel hasn't really done anything to get yanked (hence the confusion at the TBA) and so what other option is there? Now, having said that, if Ole Miss gets in a pinch and needs Jack Dougherty to get high-leverage outs in one of the first two games, he'll probably be used. But McDaniel's stuff is good enough to do the job too in that scenario. If you're making me wager, I am still probably saying McDaniel starts, but if there is a change, Dougherty makes the most sense.Â
2. Lineup construction is something I will have my eye on this weekend. The Aggies trotting out two left-handers makes me wonder if this is an opportunity for Ben Van Cleve to factor into the lineup again. I sold my Van Cleve stock long ago. My podcast co-host has not and has good reasoning behind it. Van Cleve, even in a smallish sample size, is a .330 hitter against left-handers. He's just putrid against righties. Does Bianco still have enough confidence in him to give him a pair of starts in the first two games? The trickle-down effect of this is perhaps the most interesting part. This newsletter has been beating the 'Leatherwood DHing is the team's best lineup' drum for six weeks now. Bianco used that lineup twice last weekend with Plumlee sliding into the outfield (though him playing right field and not center makes no sense, but I will not get into this today). How highly does Bianco think of Van Cleve? Enough to steer away from this lineup?Â
Then there's the Tim Elko factor. He returned last weekend in a pinch-hit role and was a millimeter or two from hitting one to the Ford Center. What is the coaching staff's comfort level with letting him loose and having him DH two or three games this weekend? Your guess is as good as mine there. If he is healthy enough to pinch-hit, I am not sure why he couldn't do it four times over nine innings. If he gets on base and they're still worried about his mobility, they can pinch run for him and have Van Cleve come off the bench. There are a lot of options this weekend and I am interested to see how it plays out. My guess as it pertains to Elko is they let him pinch-hit a few times this weekend, maybe one start and then turn him loose against Vanderbilt if all goes well. But again, that is just a guess.Â
3. Ole Miss is 13-8 with nine games left. I'm averaging a couple of texts per day asking what they need to do to earn a national seed. I am no bracketologist, I'd refer you to my former bosses at D1 Baseball for that. I don't buy into the theory that there is a cap on the number of national seeds the SEC can get, and how five is just an unrealistic number. Here is an idealistic mindset: I think they'll give the eight national seeds to the eight best teams. So with that out of the way, it has been an odd year with this conference being so top-heavy. Hell, when is the last time the bottom three teams in the west have been a combined 29 games under .500 with nine games to go? It has created an uber-competitive top third of the league and raised the metrics.
I think if Ole Miss collects six wins over the next three weeks, they'll be locked as a national seed. If they sweep one of A&M and Georgia and lose a series to Vandy (still six wins and a 19-11 record), is it possible the Rebels get screwed due to the fact they lost series to the four best clubs they played? Sure. Hell, Ole Miss is competing against three of them for these seeds and Florida will be a host. But I'll believe 19-11 isn't good enough for a national seed when I see it. Two wins this weekend is a must and three would drastically change the way you look at their chances at both the SEC West and a national seed.Â
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SEC picks
Collin and I picked last night, so we didn't cheat on the Thursday-Saturday series. Two indicates a series win and three is a sweep.
Tennessee at Missouri: Collin - UT 3, Rippee - UT 3
LSU at Auburn: Collin - LSU 2, Rippee - LSU 2
MSU at South Carolina: Collin - USC 2, Rippee - MSU 2
Alabama at Vanderbilt: Collin - Vand 2, Rippee - Bama 2
Ole Miss at A&M: Collin - OM 2, Rippee - OM 2
Georgia at Arkansas: Collin - UGA 2, Rippee - UGA 2
Kentucky at Florida: Collin - UK 2, Rippee - UF 2
The Angels released Albert Pujols yesterday
This came as a shock to most. Pujols is 41 and in the final year of a 10-year contract that remains one of the worst professional sports contracts of the last two decades, and that is no fault of his but an indictment on the Angels as an organization. I don't have anything profound to say that hasn't already been said. The guy is a legend and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don't think he's done for good and will catch on with a team once he clears waivers, but it's likely coming to an end here soon as time catches up with him, so I'll just direct you to his Baseball Reference page for the sheer insanity that was his two-decade-long career.Â
On the Horizon:Sunday megapod
Week of newsletters
Potentially that long-form story I teased a week ago
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