Rippee Writes: Friday Scoop
Mississippi State scout, Ole Miss notes and SEC Picks
Happy Friday to all. We’ve got a packed newsletter today and we have two, that is right, two new podcasts out. Collin Brister and I did our usual Mississippi State series preview infused with Mailbag Friday. Check it out here or anywhere you get podcasts. I also called up my old radio pal Brian Hadad on Wednesday night to chat on a number of different topics, including a huge baseball series. That will be up on the feed later today.
Let’s dive in.
Missississippi State scout:
Ole Miss and State are tied for second in the SEC West, both a game back of Arkansas in what has already fully morphed into a three-team race for the division. The Razorbacks have Texas A&M in Fayetteville this weekend, if you needed any more reason to believe this series in Starkville is a huge one. I say that to point out the odds of gaining any ground this weekend are slim and the likelihood of losing ground is virtually guaranteed with a series loss. Praise me for being a mathematician later.
This Mississippi State team features two elite arms at the top of the rotation and an opportunistic offense that does not necessarily scare you but has feasted upon opposing bullpens in the later innings.
Friday night starter Christian MacLeod is a top four starter in this league. The left-hander throws hard andgood feel for an elite-level curveball. He does not issue many walks and does not strikeout. Outside of Arkansas tagging him for four home runs a couple weeks ago, he’s been as dominant as anyone in the country. Put it this way: it’s another Friday night in the SEC. Runs will be at a premium and two future professionals will be on the hill
Will Bednar is a right-hander that will go Saturday. I give Ole Miss a slight edge here just viewing it from the lens of Doug Nikhazy’s numbers since being moved the number two role. Bednar has some Nikhazy in him in the sense that both battle hard despite maybe not having quite the elite bend or high spin rate stuff their predecessors on Friday possess. Again, the starting pitching here is essentially a wash but I give Ole Miss a slight, very slight edge in both. Probably not enough to matter, and if you’re a State fan still accusing me of being a homer after all these years, I got nothing for you, except data to back that claim up.
Mississippi State has a decided advantage in this bullpen. The Bulldogs simply have more guys they can count on in high-leverage situations, long relief and any crunch time scenario. Their pen has four guys with double-digit appearances and only one of them has an opponent batting average higher than .175. If the game gets to Landon Sims with a lead, you can probably turn off the TV. Sims has allowed one earned run over 21.1 innings with 43 strikeouts and 10 walks. Yeah, good luck.
Piggybacking off of that, Ole Miss getting length out of their starting pitching is going to be massive for its chances to win this game. The innings between Hoglund/Nikhazy and Taylor Broadway have been an adventure and there may not be a better team in this league at punishing bullpen ineptitude than the Bulldogs.
Like I mentioned, State’s lineup as a whole doesn’t exactly put the fear of God in you, but they’re an opportunistic bunch, particularly in the later innings, that doesn’t strikeout. The Bulldogs run a lot and their 53 stolen bags are one behind Tennessee for the SEC lead. Rowdey Jordan and Tanner Allen are good, consistent SEC hitters with a ton of experience, and Kamren James and Luke Hancock lead the team in home runs with seven. The only thing that is really hindering this lineup from being a top 4 offense in this league is not having a guy that is capable of carrying them for a month. Essentially, don’t have a Tim Elko and the likely candidate heading into the year, Josh Hatcher, has been a bitter disappointment.
Same deal this weekend, according to Greg. All subs get a 16 oz prime strip for $10. Go check the man out. LBs Universty Avenue across from Kroger. Go check out our Grill Corner pod from Wednesday. Greg crushed it.
What I am looking for from Ole Miss
Length, length, length from the starting pitching. The Rebels need six minimum from Hoglund and Nikhazy. Mike Bianco would love to take the baseball out of Hoglund’s hands and place it into Broadway’s glove tonight. Like we’ve talked about, the rest of the pen is a bit of a mystery right now and that is where State does its damage. Length from those two will be huge.
Ole Miss is a better offense, even without Elko. Can they scrape together three or four runs early to give their two horses a cushion to protect. This is the best bullpen the Rebels have faced in league play so far. Not that playing from behind is ever an optimal position, but in this series, it will be particularly tough. Can the Rebels continue to produce without Elko? Last weekend they thrived but were let down by the bullpen. Is that sustainable?
I missed this in all the news this week, but Justin Bench missed the midweek game with back discomfort. That is potentially a large problem for the Rebels. They simply cannot afford to have Bench miss time. Keep an eye on this when the lineup card comes out. I think Bench gives it a go, but is he fully healthy? The depth becomes thin and the lineup loses a lot of bite with him absent from it.
What does the back half of the lineup look like? Six spots our set. We’ve discussed all the possibilities ad nauseam, but it bears repeating: what sort of production in the last three spots can Ole Miss get out of Cael Baker, Ben Van Cleve, Calvin Harris and (I guess) Trey LaFleur. Does Bianco decide to widdle that down to two spots by tossing John Rhys Plumlee in the outfield, reaping the benefits of the defense, and living with whatever he does at the plate? Not sure how that is a bad option given the numbers of the aforementioned four. Ole Miss needs two of them to produce. Which two is it?
Of course, Drew McDaniel will again start in the SEC. He fared well against Auburn a month ago, but this is a better lineup. I don’t have much to add right now, but replacing Diamond was the right call and I think the Rebels will be better for it.
Speaking of that shaky bullpen, this is a put up or shut up weekend for the group. The usual suspects will throw: Broadway, Kimbrell and Myers. But unless everything goes perfect, at least two of these guys are going to have to be good for the Rebels to have a chance: Forsyth, Miller, Burton, Mallitz. Who are you picking? I’ll go Burton and Forsyth.
Last thought on the bullpen: Ole Miss can’t shelve Derek Diamond. He’s got to find a role, presumably in the bullpen. How does he factor into this weekend? His high-velocity translates well to the bridge guy that is tasked with collecting four or five outs. I am interested to see if he is used and how. Also, what does Jack Dougherty’s midweek heroics do to his standing? Like I said the other day, 93 on the black is 93 on the black no matter who is standing in the batter’s box. But I’d also like to maybe see it again before trusting the guy in an SEC series. Who knows. Maybe he pitches. I still have no idea what to make of that story.
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Around the league
Collin and I have been making picks on the podcast the last three weeks and I have no clue why I haven’t stuck them in here. I will tally our cumulative records on Sunday, but here are the picks. Obviously, a 3 indicates a sweep, and 2 means that team wins the series.
Auburn at Alabama:
Collin - Alabama 2
Rippee - Alabama 3
Kentucky at Georgia
Collin - UGA 2
Rippee - UGA 2
Missouri at Florida
Collin - Florida 3
Rippee - Florida 2
South Carolina at LSU
Collin - LSU 2
Rippee - USC 2
Vanderbilt at Tennessee:
Collin - Vandy 2
Rippee - Vandy 2
Ole Miss at Mississippi State
Collin - Ole Miss 2
Rippee - Ole Miss 2
Texas A&M at Arkansas:
Collin - 2
Rippee - Arkansas 2
Ole Miss Hoops rounds out high school class:
Kermit Davis and the Rebels signed Eric Van Der Heijden, a 6-foot-8 forward from North Carolina for its fourth and final high school signee. He joins Daeshun Ruffin, Grant Slatten and James White in this 2021 class.
SEC golf update:
The SEC Women’s Tournament is going on at Greystone in Hoover, Alabama. The final stroke play round is today with the top eight teams moving on to match play. Ole Miss sits fourth at 17-under for the two days and Mississippi State is 5th at 15-under. Both squads have a decent cushion and should be in good shape for the match play.
On the horizon
Our usual Sunday megapod recapping all things baseball with Collin
A week of newsletters with a couple new segment ideas
Podcasts with some off the wall guest I think you might enjoy
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