Preseason camp is underway for Ole Miss: what should interest you?
Here are some storylines to follow as the Rebels begin preseason camp
Ole Miss began preseason camp on Wednesday, as another mile-marker on the route to football season is now in the rearview. The Rebels have a month of practices to go before they will play a game that counts, but with camp getting underway and local media day happening on Wednesday, let’s take a look at some storylines that might interest you.
Roster-building strategy makes Ole Miss hard team to read
I find Ole Miss to be a fascinating team that is hard to prognosticate in terms of win total and broad expectations. I’ve felt this way in each of the three previous Lane Kiffin preseasons, but perhaps more strongly than ever entering this year.
The 2020 season should really be thrown out of the discussion due to the global pandemic, no spring football, doubt as to whether a season would happen at all and it being Kiffin’s year. I was bullish on the 2021 team, mostly because I was a Matt Corral believer from the time he arrived in 2018. That team had veteran line units on both sides (despite a lack of depth on the defensive line), a dynamic running back room and an experienced secondary.
Last year, I was admittedly a bit too optimistic about the Rebels’ ceiling. I think this is primarily due to what was seen as a favorable front-end of the schedule, assuming that Kiffin’s 2022 portal class would have the near-perfect hit rate that the 2021 class did, and a belief that Jaxson Dart was a budding star who was dealt a bad hand during his true freshman season at USC. What I did not give enough credence to was the heavy reliance on the aforementioned transfer class to muster depth at linebacker and on the defensive line, and how difficult replacing two offensive line starters would be. I couldn’t have predicted that Mason Brooks wouldn’t ever start a game, given how evaluators perceived him when he was in the portal. And of course, I couldn’t have foreseen the circus the last month the season became because the Auburn job came open.
This year, I believe there are more uncertainties scattered across the depth chart than there were when the previous two teams began camp — and this team faces (on paper at least) an exponentially more difficult schedule. I figure this trend of yearly uncertainty I laid out is becoming the norm for a program that relies so heavily on the transfer portal.
We’re watching an experiment play out in real time. ESPN’s Bill Connelly had a fascinating note about Kiffin and Ole Miss in his SEC West preview a couple of weeks ago. In the offseason leading up to the 2022 campaign, there were four coaches who brought in at least 16 transfers. Three were first year head coaches. The other was Lane Kiffin. This offseason, five coaches brought in 25 or more transfers (Ole Miss sits at exactly 25 and counting), three are first year head coaches, one is SMU second-year head man Rhett Lashlee, and the other is Lane Kiffin.
First-year head coaches using the transfer portal heavily is seemingly logical and somewhat common. More often than not, that coach is inheriting a bad situation, or at least one with a lot of roster turnover created by the former coach leaving, and the portal is used to try to generate a quick influx of talent for that first season and shorten the rebuild. Kiffin is in his fourth year at Ole Miss. He’s signed more transfers than high school players in each of the last two recruiting classes.
We’ve discussed Kiffin’s reasoning for the heavy portal reliance enough over the last two years that debating its viability is no longer necessary. As I began to formulate thoughts about the season and how difficult I found this team to read, the way Connelly laid out Kiffin’s commitment to the portal was pretty eye-opening to me. Kiffin isn’t shy about any of this either. He spoke about it at length in his press conference on Wednesday. He talked about the challenge of building chemistry with so many new players.
"That is challenging nowadays with the system the NCAA has set up. Also, taking that on our own, we take a lot of guys,” Kiffin said. “That's an ongoing challenge for us to bring people along and that was a big message in the team meeting last night. You have to do work to come together, this isn't an individual sport. You have to do a lot of work off the field with each other to build trust and prepare.”
He also mentioned that the coaching staff went through the roster and counted that only three players who are classified as juniors or seniors began their career at Ole Miss. That’s another eye-opening way to frame the Rebels’ quest to find continuity and chemistry amid widespread turnover.
Do you feel like you have a firm grasp of the Rebels’ roster? I constantly have to puruse it to make sure I haven’t left out any new players when discussing various positions and who might have an impact. Some of that is simply the new normal in this portal era, but Ole Miss’ approach makes it even more extreme. I think the Rebels could be pretty good this year, but I would be lying to you if I told you I had a strong read on the majority of the 25 transfers in terms of what they are as players. I haven’t seen them play enough, and in many cases I don’t know the reason they left their first school. I suppose the same could be said for high school recruits, but we at least have fairly accurate rating systems for high school prospects and it’s easier to follow their development within the program. It was certainly easier to forecast a potential depth chart four years ago than it is now.
So, as far as expectations go, I can’t really offer a confident opinion because nearly half of the scholarship players are new.
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The Rebel’s daunting schedule also plays a role in the uncertainty
In addition to the roster turnover, Ole Miss’ schedule also makes a win-total prediction more difficult. I have found myself a bit perplexed at the level of optimism a faction of the fanbase is perpetuating. Maybe optimism is the wrong word. Fans carry a naturally optimistic nature. It’s a core element of fandom and is what makes sports fun. And I also acknowledge that me subjectively surveying internet commentary and perusing the message board I am employed by is no way to derive a consensus opinion from the Ole Miss fan base. I suppose my long-winded point is that I struggle to understand the logic employed by the aforementioned pocket of the Rebels' fanbase that believes eight wins is the floor and a 10-win season is easily within reach.
The first piece of evidence I’ll submit is the schedule. Ole Miss plays the sport’s three most recent national champions: LSU, Alabama and Georgia. Two of those contests are on the road. Georgia is a two-time defending national champ that has shown few signs of slowing down, LSU won the SEC West under a first-year head coach in 2022, and Alabama signed its third top-ranked recruiting class in the last five seasons (ranked second in the other two years) according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. If last year’s favorable schedule was my primary reason for optimism for a team relying heavily on the production of transfers, this year’s schedule, for a team relying on the same, is my primary reason for pessimism. It’s a tough road. The most realistic path to 9-3 would require the Rebels to do one of two things:
Sweep this collection of games in addition to its non-conference opponents: Arkansas, (at) Auburn, (at) Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
Win one of three against LSU, (at) Georgia and (at) Alabama, as well as go 4-1 against the other five games listed — and win all four of its non-conference games that most notably include a road trip to the reigning Cotton Bowl Champions Tulane and a home contest against Georgia Tech.
Again, as we sit here in August, every thought should be prefaced with the “on paper” qualifier, but how realistic do either of those paths sound to you when laid out that way? And neither scenario was a formula to 10-regular season wins, which the program has only achieved once in the last 60 years. I am also a firm believer in the idea that what we believe to be true in August, is rarely entirely true in November. In August of 2022, a road contest at A&M was seen as a brutal test, a road game at LSU was viewed as uncharacteristically winnable compared to past years, and an Oxford-based Egg Bowl was gauged as a likely win. I subscribe to the theory that there are still layers of uncertainty within a sport that lacks parity — I’m just not sure I am willing to lean on it as heavily when two of the subjects in question are Alabama and Georgia, and the third is LSU.
This segment of the newsletter was absolutely not intended to throw cold water on your excitement for the season. I have not and will not deem anything impossible. If you told me Ole Miss somehow beat Alabama and Georgia, I’d be pretty flabbergasted. But if you told me they beat LSU at home and somehow bested a Crimson Tide team without an established quarterback for the first time in a half decade, I’d be surprised without my jaw dropping to the floor. I simply wanted to walk the reader through the challenging schedule Ole Miss has in front of it and present it as needed context surrounding win total expectations in contrast to the previous two years. Lane Kiffin is now paid nearly $9 million per year. That’s big boy money and should rightly be met with high expectations. You, the fan, are not wrong for having them, even if I struggle to align with the reasoning.
That’s what makes this season so fascinating. Last November, Kiffin strategically ensured he became one of the 10 highest-paid coaches in the sport. I simply wonder if he’s equipped himself with the firepower needed to make the results mirror the salary, particularly when you take a peek at the teams standing in the way of Ole Miss’ pursuit of success.
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What are the roster questions?
Kiffin isn’t a fan of public depth charts. I suppose I understand why, given everything we just covered above. How valuable and accurate would a two-deep depth chart really be one day into preseason camp? What I can do is rank positions groups based on confidence by putting them into several categories that I completely made up myself.
Extremely confident
Quarterback - Though there is at least some uncertainty as to who will take the first snap against Mercer, talent is not an issue at this position. Ole Miss brought in former five-star prospect and LSU transfer Walker Howard, a four-year starter at Oklahoma State and 2021 First-Team All-Big 12 member Spencer Sanders, and 17-year-old Austin Simmons — who skipped his final two years of high school and signed with the Rebels this summer.
“All four guys out there are getting reps and rotating through with all the different units,” Kiffin said. “That's definitely as deep as we have been here, to have that much competition at a lot of different ages. All the way from a guy who's 23 to a guy who was supposed to be a sophomore in high school.
All three players join returning starter Jaxson Dart, who is seemingly the front-runner to win the job, but will certainly have earned it if that ends up being the case. Whether it’s Dart or someone else, Ole Miss has more than enough talent to find quality quarterback play this year.
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Pretty confident
Running backs - Quinshon Judkins returns after a remarkable freshman season. Ulysses Bentley returns too after an injury-riddled 2022 season. Ole Miss doesn’t have the depth that it did last year, seemingly swapping out Zach Evans for true freshman Kedrick Reescano, but this position should still be a strength. The staff is very high on Reescano and their recent track record when it comes to young running backs contributing early is pretty pristine.
Tight end - This one may come as a surprise, but I am bullish on this group because of the way it was reshaped in the offseason. Ole Miss landed Memphis transfer Caden Prieskorn in the portal. He’s 6-foot-5, 250 lbs. and was a standout high school basketball player who describes his best strength leaping up to go get the football. Pair him with a year older Michael Trigg and there is fascinating potential here. I would even throw the idea out there that you could see these two on the field at the same time in some packages. Lane Kiffin’s best offenses have usually featured an above average tight end. I think that could end up being the case in 2023.
Fairly confident
Offensive line - Ole Miss lost Nick Broeker but returns everyone else. The Rebels played two freshmen tackles last year, which is sort of remarkable when reflecting back on it. Both Micah Pettus and Jayden Williams will benefit from the trial-by-fire scenario they were thrust into last year. Jeremy James will anchor one of the guard spots, Caleb Warren will likely play center with Eli Acker rounding out the other guard spot. This is far from a certainty, and the depth Ole Miss added via the portal with Victor Curne (tackle) and Quincy McGee (guard), to go along with older players like Reece McIntyre and Cedric Melton, puts this unit in a pretty solid spot, on paper at least. The only reason I didn’t have them in the “pretty confident” category is the simple fact that this unit, with mostly the same guys, struggled last year. Experience trumps everything else when it comes to development, and I think the line will be much better this year.
Cautiously optimistic
Defensive tackle - This might be a bit of a reach, but this is another area where I like what the coaching staff did in terms of building depth with NC State transfer Joshua Harris and Nebraska transfer Stephon Wynn. J.J. Pegues and Jamond Gordon return. None of these guys are bonafide productive players, aside from potentially Pegues, but they’re all interesting pieces.
Defensive end (and BUCK) - I don’t know exactly what Pete Golding’s defense will look like, but if it’s a three man front, I will throw the “buck” position (or whatever they call the linebacker/defensive end hybrid spot that places closest to the line of scrimmage) in here, too. Jared Ivey is back and so is Cedric Johnson. A clean bill of health for Johnson and Ivey becoming more consistent will be crucial to this unit’s success. I somewhat worry about depth, because behind the starters, it’s basically James Madison transfer Issac Ukwu and a bunch of young guys, but I like the top end of this group.
I need to see it first
Wide Receiver - Aside from Elijah Moore’s remarkable 2020 season, Ole Miss has struggled to find consistent, above average receiver play in the Lane Kiffin era. There are many reasons for this, but finding it will be tougher this year with the departures of Jonathan Mingo and Malik Heath. Ole Miss will rely heavily on true freshman Ayden Williams to make an immediate impact.
"Ayden (Williams) looked really good and obviously he was a great high school player,” Kiffin said. “You never know until you really get them, and it's only been one day without pads, but he looked really special and unique out there. The little bit we've been able to do with him in the offseason, we've seen the same type of stuff.”
Ole Miss added Tre Harris (LA Tech), Zhakari Franklin (UTSA) and Chris Marshall (Texas A&M) from the portal. Marshall has already been dismissed from the team and Franklin had surgery shortly after reporting for campus and will miss almost all of preseason camp. That means Ole Miss will enter week one with Harris, walk-on Dayton Wade, Jordan Watkins as its most experienced receivers. That’s not ideal. But if Franklin can get healthy and Williams makes an impact, then the outlook is not nearly as bleak, but those are big “ifs”. J.J. Henry is now in his third year, Larry Simmons is in his second, and Jalen Knox (allegedly) still exists and is on the team. Development at this position will be both telling and crucial this year.
Safety - I almost put this group in the last category, but Isheem Young and LaDarrius Tennison returning as the presumed starters, and Trey Washington being somewhat experienced, prevented me from doing it. I don’t know what lies behind them as far as depth is concerned. It’s likely a pair of senior transfers in Teja Young (FAU) and Daijaghn Anthony (Liberty). One or both of them could end up being awesome. I have no clue. I need to see it first.
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Could be a real issue
Linebacker - Khari Coleman and Ashanti Cistrunk are back. Ole Miss added Monty Montgomery (Louisville) and Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste (UFC) from the portal, and also have true freshman Suntarine Perkins. If Coleman and Cistrunk are the starters, that doesn’t exactly breed confidence. I don’t know enough about the two transfers yet, and like everyone else, I believe Perkins will be a superstar before he leaves Ole Miss, but relying on a true freshman is never a sure bet. Ole Miss wasn’t great at this position last year. Chance Campbell and Mark Robinson were remarkable surprises in 2021 that saved the position group from being a weakness on that defense. Like anything else in this column, I am not declaring disaster at the linebacker spot, but rather pointing out reason for concern.
Cornerback - Ole Miss returns a bonafide asset in Deantre Prince, but is almost certain to have an incoming transfer man the other corner spot and nickel position. Take your pick of Zamari Walton (Georgia Tech), DeShawn Gaddie (North Texas), John Saunders (Miami OH), Justin Hodges (UCF), Jadon Canady (Tulane) and Chris Graves (Miami) as options to fill these two slots and form depth. I think the mere fact that Ole Miss brought in so many transfers at this position should underscore the concern more so than anything else.
As we wrap up this exercise, your head might be spinning a bit as you try to remember and contextualize the vast number of new faces on this roster. I suppose that’s the overall point: Ole Miss is a fascinating team that’s hard to read.