Ole Miss takes series at Auburn, spring football starting up
A look at a series win for the Rebels on The Plains and some spring football storylines
Hope everyone had a good weekend. We’ve got a new podcast out with Collin Brister featuring our usual Sunday baseball conversion recapping Ole Miss’ series win at Auburn and the weekend results from around the league. You can check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got some of the same and a whole lot more to discuss this week.
Ole Miss takes two at Auburn.
The Rebels won their first series at Auburn since 2009 by bashing their way to 33 runs over three games and found enough pitching to avoid squandering that offensive production. I thought there was a lot to take away from this series regarding the strengths and flaws of this team. Let’s run through a few.
Good teams win series like this
As simple as it sounds, good baseball teams find a way to win road series against middling to average teams. While it may not have been the prettiest looking process in the world, Ole Miss did exactly that. Auburn’s Sunday starter Trace Bright had been its most best and most consistent starting pitcher this season, and for Ole Miss to respond from an embarrassing Friday loss in the form of 15 runs to remove any doubt in terms of who was winning the series shows toughness. I think that matters, and it isn’t the first time we have all witnessed it. I think the program’s broader postseason failures have distracted fans and viewers from the tough, resilient nucleus this team has formed.
I will use last June as an example. Remember last year’s Oxford Regional? Ole Miss was in the winner’s bracket on Sunday after a legendary Doug Nikhazy outing and some good fortune propelled the Rebels past Florida State on that Saturday. All was well as the team had two tries to beat a red hot and every good, but less-talented Southern Miss team. The Golden Eagles punched Ole Miss in the mouth with a seven-run first inning against Drew McDaniel and basically guaranteed that a winner-take-all game the next day would occur. Was there about to be a Black Monday 2.0? Was this the beginning of the end of the Bianco era? One final chapter of choking?
How did this team, which has nearly the exact same lineup as this year’s version, respond the next day in that do or die game? By hitting two bombs in the first inning for a four-spot and adding five more in the bottom of the second. They punched back. This is how Ole Miss started that game: Gonzalez double, Chatagnier home run, Graham pop out, Elko Single, Bench home run. The Rebels led 9-0 after two innings, alleviating a sense of angst that likely resided more so among the people in the stands than the men on the field to begin with. The lineup is as tough and resilient as it is exhausting to pitch to. That will matter in June.
Anyway, not to get wax poetic about a March series win by a team that is unquestionably flawed, but it is something I thought about as the Rebels bashed their way to a victory in game three.
The starting pitching us unsustainable
Anyone who watched all three of these games likely detected this. I am not offering up any nuanced wisdom here. Ole Miss’ starting pitching, as currently constructed, is not sustainable. The Rebels aren’t going to win a lot of SEC series that involve only one of their three starters completing the fourth inning. Of course there is context needed, but outside of Jack Dougherty, not much feels constant with this rotation. And considering Ole Miss went TBA for game three after a shaky Dougherty outing the week prior, how constant is that piece of this equation? A couple of thoughts.
I’d like to see more of John Gaddis before making any concrete declarations. Auburn blitzed him in the game’s first two innings. Gaddis threw way too many fastballs that caught way too much of the plate and fooled no one. The Tigers hit a lot of balls hard and matched Ole Miss’s offensive output in the first two innings. Gaddis’ fastball command was lacking for the second straight outing. As we’ve discussed at length before, Gaddis relies heavily on being able to throw his fastball wherever he wants. His success hinges directly upon it. When he isn’t able to, the results are unfavorable.
#RebsBSB No. 1 in at least one poll this week with Baseball America moving UM to the top spot. Haven’t seen D1 yet. Perfect Game has Tennessee No. 1 so we get the weird No. 1 vs. No. 1 this weekend. Baseball quirk that doesn’t matter but annoys me for some reason. Pick a poll.Too Gaddis’ credit, he recovered. He began to throw more first-pitch breaking balls and located them well. Shifting course mid-outing and being successful with it is not easy to do, and there aren’t a ton of guys on Ole Miss’ roster that can do that. He deserves credit for that. Gaddis put up a zero in the third and got two strikeouts between a walk in the fourth. Gaddis likely could’ve gone deeper into the game. He was only at 79 pitches when he was replaced, but it was a prudent move with Sonny Dichiara stepping into the box for a third time in four innings. Dichiara hit ball in the first inning that still hasn’t landed and was intentionally walked his second time up. Bianco going with a righty-on-righty matchup and electing against letting Gaddis to face what might be the SEC’s best hitter again was a perfectly justifiable move. Dylan Delucia struck him out on six pitches.
In Gaddis’ defense, there was likely a bit of a ‘welcome to the SEC’ moment for him early in that game. He also doesn’t necessarily profile as an SEC-caliber ace with the way he pitches. If Ole Miss can find a way to get him back to the No. 2 starter, I think it will work to the benefit of Gaddis and the team. But right now, he’s the best they have to offer in terms of an ace, so he will likely remain as the No. 1 guy. I will be interested to see how he fares against a daunting Tennessee lineup.
In stark contrast, there is definitely enough of a sample size on Derek Diamond to pass judgement. In Friday’s 19-5 loss, mistakes compounded again for Diamond. A pair of third-inning walks led to a two-on, two-out situation that morphed into a bases loaded scenario after an intentional walk. A double and a singled followed that netted a four-run third inning for Auburn. A one-out double in the fourth inning was enough for Bianco to go to the bullpen and end Diamond’s day. His issues remain the same. Diamond has been unable to get off the field and mitigate damage when things go south. He doesn’t appear to have a put-away pitch, which makes that task even more difficult.
I don’t really know what is next for Diamond. I wouldn’t be stunned if he got another opportunity to start. I would be mildly surprised if that came in game two this weekend. Maybe he is replaced entirely. As of this writing, Ole Miss announced that it will start Jack Washburn and Drew McDaniel in its pair of midweek games against Memphis. The weather for Tuesday doesn’t look great but Bianco said Washburn will start Wednesday if Tuesday is rained out. All of that will play out in the coming days, but the point is this: Ole Miss’ rotation needs to be tweaked. Who of Gaddis, Diamond and Dougherty is most likely to be ousted? One of those is not like the others. Ole Miss’ ceiling changes if Diamond is good, but to this point that has not happened yet.
The one positive was Dougherty, who was pretty sharp in five innings in the series finale. He scattered seven hits and allowed two runs with seven strikeouts and three walks. Dougherty’s fastball was electric. He threw strikes. I thought the way he matched his counterpart’s (Bright) success in the first two innings helped stabilize Ole Miss in this game. This was an encouraging sign for Ole Miss. Dougherty has the velocity and stuff to be a Friday guy, but not only does have almost zero experience starting in the SEC, he really doesn’t have a ton of experience at all. People forget that Jack Dougherty didn’t yet exist as a contributor this time a year ago. He was a freshman who planned to redshirt and most of you likely didn’t know who he was. Now, less than a year later, he is emerging into arguably the Rebels’ most reliable starter. Maybe it’s finally getting him on a regular schedule that’s making him more comfortable. It’s probably also about learning how to be a starting pitcher in the SEC. I think both he and Gaddis are currently in that learning process — just in different ways. It’s still a work in progress, but this was a good sign for Ole Miss. If you are looking for a fix to this rotation, the solution starts to these two being constants.
The bullpen had some good and some bad
Friday was just one of those days. I won’t bore you with the “that’s baseball” cliché that people get tired of Bianco muttering, but some days just aren’t your day. Friday felt like that for Ole Miss. After Mason Nichols struggled in relief of Diamond on Friday, it felt like Bianco was punting for game three in terms of using his best bullets out of the bullpen. This offense isn’t incapable of erasing a 9-1 deficit, but sometimes you have to play the long game, and with what Auburn had available on the mound in game three, the move made sense. Wes Burton and Jackson Kimbrell aren’t strictly ‘garbage time’ guys by any means. But if Bianco was adamant about putting up some zeroes and seeing if the offense could get back into this thing, I think he would’ve gone elsewhere, like to Hunter Elliott or Riley Maddox.
I thought what Delucia did on Thursday was invaluable. He recorded 11 outs over 3.1 innings. The pair of zeroes he put up in the 4th an 5th in relief of Gaddis stabilized Ole Miss on the mound and afforded the offense enough opportunities to issue the knockout blow, which it did in the form of a six-run sixth inning that blew the game open. Delucia also helped preserve the bullpen for the latter two games, allowing Bianco to have Elliott, Johnson and Maddox available if needed. With the way the ball was flying and the game was going when Delucia entered the game, that could’ve easily been a stomach-churning, 10-8 game entering the ninth inning. It wasn’t, and Delucia played a role in preventing that. He’s had an odd year, but he’s got good stuff and he throws strikes. That has to count for something.
One last bullpen note: Josh Mallitz has looked really, really sharp each time he has thrown this year. His only two outings this year have come when the game was already decided, but he’s throwing a 91-93 mph fastball with precision and locating breaking balls for strikes. Mallitz was much maligned by many as he struggled during his freshman year. Some of that was due to Bianco putting him in unfair spots, but there is also a reason that it took Bianco until mid-April last year to (temporarily) ‘give-up’ on Mallitz being a major contributor for the 2021 team — it’s because he clearly saw something in him. Struggling as a freshman is hardly uncommon, and as this pitching staff (rotation and the bullpen included) tries to find its identity, Mallitz should not be discounted. Keep an eye on this. Mop-up duty aside, what he’s throwing and how he’s throwing it right now can get outs in any game.
There is nothing wrong with the offense.
Ole Miss scored 33 runs in 27 innings against a pretty good pitching staff. There is nothing wrong with this offense. Yes, it had a pair of subpar seven-inning performances against Oral Roberts and the midweek game at Southeastern Louisiana wasn’t great, but the sheer production doesn’t lie. I some of this offense’s moments of almost ridiculous potency has disillusioned some into believing it will happen every time out. That’s not really how this game works. Yes, there have been inconsistent stretches and days in which the collective approach has been poor, but this offense is still carrying this team, and it is allowing Ole Miss to figure out some of its deficiencies on the mound without losses piling up. That is invaluable.
A few numbers and thoughts:
Tim Elko has a 1.136 OPS with 30 RBIs has drawn 16 walks. His strikeout total and batting average doesn’t matter. Please don’t fool yourself by looking at those two statistics. Thanks for listening to this public service announcement.
What a weekend for Jacob Gonzalez. Bianco moved him into the leadoff spot after having Chatagnier there for pretty much the entire season up until Thursday. Gonzalez went 5-10 with two home runs, seven runs scored and four walks. That’ll hunt. Credit to Bianco for whatever he saw there.
I don’t understand the base running thing. Ole Miss runs the bases like a bunch of pissed off little leaguers who got into a cooler of Red Bull. Bianco’s logic after Thursday’s win is that it puts pressure on defenses and that Auburn hadn’t thrown many people out coming in. Ok, fine. But I am not sure what trying to swipe third with one out and Tim Elko in the box accomplishes. There is a lot of real estate between being aggressive and being utterly reckless. Ole Miss is deep into reckless territory right now and it is going to cost them at some point unless it is dialed back a bit.
Final thoughts
It was mission accomplished for Ole Miss over the weekend. It went on the road and got a series win in the SEC. Yes, there are flaws on the mound and defensively, but I’d implore you to point me to a flawless team right now. The Rebels will be tested this coming weekend when it hosts a Tennessee team that is 19-1 on the year, swept South Carolina at home last week and has an argument of being called the best team in the country. We will learn a lot from this series.
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Around the SEC:
Everything pretty much held chalk on the opening weekend of SEC play, with one major exception. Let’s have a look.
Georgia took two of three from Mississippi State in Athens - Credit to State for not getting swept and rebounding on Sunday, but I am not sure this team is anything more than a two or three seed in a regional with the injuries it has sustained. Georgia can really pitch it. Can it hit well enough to host?
Arkansas swept Kentucky in Fayetteville - The Razorbacks lost ace Peyton Pallette before the season started, but are starting to figure some things out on the mound. Former quarterback, turned Saturday guy, turned bullpen arm and now current ace Connor Noland is a fascinating story. I watched Kentucky make five errors in four innings with a misplayed fly ball on top of it on Friday. Yikes.
Tennessee swept South Carolina in Knoxville - South Carolina is a decent club. It ran into a buzz saw. Tennessee is doing all of this without its ace Chad Dallas. If the Vols get him back at some point this year, this team could be scary. They are already a really good club that swings it well.
Florida took two on the road at Alabama - I thought Alabama might take this series, but Florida played really well. Credit to the Tide for not getting swept.
Vanderbilt swept Missouri in Nashville - Missouri shows up for 30 conference games participates in SEC Baseball. That is about all I can credit them with.
Texas A&M took two over LSU in Baton Rouge - This was the shock of the weekend. The Aggies struggled early on in the season but nearly swept LSU in Alex Box Stadium, holding a lethal offense in check.
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Ole Miss begins spring practice on Tuesday
We will have a podcast with former Ole Miss recruiting analyst Weldon Rotenberg that will likely drop Tuesday morning. After retooling the roster in the transfer portal, the spring will give us a brief glimpse at a few different storylines. Here are a few:
The quarterback competition will be a legitimate one. I think most rightly view Jaxson Dart as the favorite to land the job, but Luke Altmyer wants a word. Altmyer was a four-star kid that chose Ole Miss over Florida State. He is a talented player. Most people who scouted or recruited will tell you how tough he is fairly quickly into their analysis of him. I doubt there is much real clarity here in the spring in terms of a starter being named, but it will be interesting to see how much of a fight Altmyer gives Dart.
The running back room lost all three of its primary contributors from a season ago. Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy declared for the NFL Draft. Henry Parrish followed Kevin Smith to Miami. The Rebels added former five-star prospect and TCU transfer Zach Evans, SMU transfer Ulysses Bentley and welcomed Quinshon Judkins as an early enrollee. Kentrel Bullock played sparingly over the last two season and will compete for time as well. Does anyone emerge in the spring as the lead to what should be a pretty diverse rushing attack?
Ole Miss has two new coordinators and basically an entirely new coaching staff. How much different schematically do the Rebels on each side of the ball? How much of that will be visible in spring?
The defense has a host of newcomers and must replace the likes of Sam Williams on the defensive line. Chemistry will be a common theme for the new-look Rebels on both sides of the ball.
Landing Western Kentucky transfer Mason Brooks seemingly paved the way for Nick Broeker to move to left guard and for Brooks to man the left tackle spot. What does that look like and how does the rest of the offensive line shake out?
Ole Miss is relying on a couple of transfer receivers to bolster a position group that was hampered by injuries last year, but also simply wasn’t good enough. Who, if anyone, has the 2019 Elijah Moore-like spring that makes it obvious they will be a top target in the fall?
Who is the place kicker? Caden Costa was suspended at the end of last year for a failed drug test for PEDs. He was quite good for Ole Miss and rectified an issue that had plagued the program during the Luke Logan years.
We’ll have more spring football thoughts this week.
Riley loses in a playoff at the Valspar Championship
Hattiesburg native and Alabama alum Davis Riley was the solo 54-hole leader at the PGA Tour’s Valspar Championship in Tampa thanks a casual, bogey-free Saturday 62. Riley overcame a disastrous triple bogey on the fifth hole of his final round to force a playoff with defending champion Sam Burns. Riley nearly won the tournament in regulation with a birdie putt on 18 that just slid by. He birdied the 17th to tie the lead. It’s unfortunate he came up short, but as I have written for over a year in this space, Riley is a super star in the making and will win on Tour soon.
A lot of guys would’ve folded after a triple bogey in that moment, with a leaderboard that included the likes of Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Stewart Cink and Xander Schauffele. But Riley recovered rather than wilted and nearly cemented his first PGA Tour win. He walked away with a cool $850,000 for his troubles, invaluable experience of being in a moment like that and some positives to build on. He wins on Tour this year, you heard it first here.
On the horizon
A truly great time of year on the sports calendar
We will have more football, baseball, golf and March Madness coverage in the newsletter this week
Spring football primer pod with Weldon
Tennessee series preview
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