Ole Miss Baseball's 6-0 start and Kiffin continuing to crush the portal
Some bullpen and offense nuggets, as well as another portal addition for Ole Miss football
Hope everyone had a good weekend. We have a new podcast out with Collin Brister discussing Ole Miss’s 6-0 start, a rain-shortened weekend, bullpen roles, a juggernaut of an offense and more. You can check that out here or anywhere you get your podcasts.
We have much of the same to get to today.
Rebels take two from VCU
Ole Miss won both games it played this weekend against a VCU team that was a two seed in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Saturday game was wiped out due to weather. The Rebels are now 6-0. All six of games have been a bit of a slog as only two of the them have gone the full nine innings.
I will go out on a limb and say I do not love VCU’s chances to return the the NCAA Tournament. The Rams lost a good bit of offense off of last year’s club and the Rebels assaulted their pitching staff. That’s going to be a common theme this year. A lot of these midweek games will be unwatchable. This team has destroyed inferior pitching through and I don’t see that changing barring a barrage of injuries.
Let’s roll through some thoughts.
Gaudy offensive numbers
So, about that offense. Ole Miss has scored 71 runs in 43 offensive frames. Poor competition aside, that is an absurd statistic. Individual numbers hold little significance just six games into a 56-game season, but it can still paint a picture of dominance in a short sample size. Nine ‘regular’ players have an on-base plus slugging (OPS) percentage over 1.000. Four players have seven or more hits. Ole Miss as a team has 32 total strikeouts and 31 walks. The idea that this is the best offense in the sport is proving true through the season’s first two weeks. This lineup is legitimately 12-deep when fully healthy.
Managing depth
When Mike Bianco published his Friday lineup card, more than a few people on our message board were perturbed at who wasn’t on it, most notably Hayden Leatherwood and Kemp Alderman. As I mentioned on Friday, I actually found the Alderman omission to be the more bizarre of the two. He’s a guy that needs to stockpile at bats in order to be properly evaluated. I understand that Bianco also wants to see what he has defensively with Reagan Burford at third base, Justin Bench in centerfield and T.J. McCants in right field. That could potentially be an optimal defensive lineup. And while simultaneously giving Ben Van Cleve a start at designated hitter in a February game against an inferior opponent is likely not even worth writing about, it is a bit puzzling. This isn’t even an anti-Van Cleve thing (we can get to that in a minute). I just think he is more of a known commodity and that if there is anyone who should get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to at-bats, it’s Alderman — strictly from an evaluation standpoint, if nothing else.
Now, to Leatherwood. VCU was slated to start three left-handed pitchers over the weekend. Whether you agree or disagree (and for the record, I disagree), Bianco is hesitant to start Leatherwood against lefties. He started John Rhys Plumlee over Leatherwood in game two of the Tucson Super Regional last year because of it. Bianco has forgotten more baseball than I’ll ever know, so I will defer to him if he believes this is the best course of action. It was a bit of a head-scratcher last year given the holes at the bottom of the order in 2021. So far, Ole Miss doesn’t look like it has any holes in the lineup in 2022, so maybe he thinks he can afford to do that? I don’t know. I personally would start the kid that hits the ball over the fence versus the one who doesn’t. But in fairness to Van Cleve, he’s had a nice start to the year. He’s yet to strike out, has drawn four walks and is 3-6 with four runs scored on the year. That’ll hunt.
It’s so early in the year, it feels silly to extensively argue this in writing, but I do think it sheds light on the challenge of having the depth Ole Miss has. Burford has hit pretty well despite not having a great start defensively. None of the trio of Van Cleve, Leatherwood and Alderman have gotten off to slow starts. Calvin Harris has seven hits with three walks in 16 plate appearances to start the year in place of an injured Hayden Dunhurst. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in terms of plate appearances. I am fascinated to see how Bianco manages this over the final two weekends of nonconference play an what he “settles” on when the team goes to Auburn to begin the SEC season. Let’s play out a couple of scenarios.
What if Burfurd hits at a 2018 Tyler Keenan-ish level? To a point to where it’s impossible to take him out of the lineup (just ask Tim Elko how that insane that was). Yes, of course that’s way easier said than done, but just for the sake of the exercise, roll with it. That presumably puts Burford at third base, Bench in center and McCants in right. Doing the math, this basically means three guys — Van Cleve, Alderman and Leatherwood — all fight for one spot at DH. That’s not even counting Harris, who is hitting like a man who would like a say in all of this even once Dunhurst comes back. I am talking about DH for Harris. Dunhurst is obviously the every day catcher. That’s one hell of a luxury to have, but it will also be a bit of a fickle situation to manage.
Even if Burford doesn’t hit well enough to force Bianco to keep him at third base, you’re still talking about three or four guys for two spots in right field and DH. With respect to Van Cleve, I don’t think he’s throwing on a glove any time soon. So, it’s him grappling for ABs at DH with Alderman, Leatherwood and Harris as options at both right field and DH. Don’t forget how coveted Harris was as a recruit. This guy was supposed to hit like this, and while I am merely assuming he could throw on a glove and play a corner outfield slot, it seems like a fairly safe bet. Who do you go with? Ole Miss can afford to tweak the lineup even into conference play. It’s not nearly as rigid as I may have made it sound, but I am fascinated to see how all of it plays out. The odds of all of these guys continuing to hit at the pace they’re at is slim to none, but until someone falters, it’s fun to think about and run through the hypotheticals.
Diamond is a firm ‘wait and see’ for me
Derek Diamond went five innings and allowed two unearned runs on five hits with two strikeouts and a walk. For the second consecutive week, he started the game touching 93-94 mph with the fastball, only to have that dip into the 88-90 range by the third or fourth inning. While I don’t totally understand this phenomenon and why it is happening, I think the only way to evaluate Diamond is an 88-90 guy who is going to pitch to contact. He was pretty fastball heavy in this outing. That’s probably nothing more than it being more than good enough to get VCU out, which sort of encapsulates exactly how I view Diamond. I know this version of him is good enough to get Charleston Southern, VCU and probably UCF out — but is it good enough to get outs at the rate that is required to win games on Friday nights in the SEC? I have no idea. That’s why my collective thoughts on him are essentially a gigantic shoulder shrug. Check back in with me three starts into SEC play. We will have more to talk about.
If you are looking for an ostensibly positive nugget, I have one: last year, when things started to sour four Diamond, he often couldn’t recover. He’d compound mistakes and turn a two-run inning into a five-run inning and an early exit. Ole Miss didn’t play great defense behind Diamond on Friday, and there were two points in that game that could’ve gotten squirrely: the first inning and the fourth inning. Diamond mitigated the damage on both occasions to the tune of just one unearned run. On the podcast, I keep calling this seed planting season and note filing season. That’s a note to file away.
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The defense has been terrible
Let’s call a spade a spade here. Ole Miss has been pretty putrid defensively so far this year. Fielding percentage in college baseball is a complete crock of shit. I may have explained this before, but the home head coach has the power to retroactively change errors to hits and vice versa, so fielding percentage is hardly a biblical stat. But, as my astute co-host Collin pointed out, it can sort of be a guide. As you watched these six games, how bad have the opponents looked in the field? Are you banking on Charleston Southern, Arkansas State and VCU to make the postseason? Me either. Well, those three combined had a .933 fielding percentage. The mighty Rebels are at a whopping .937 — not much better at all. That’ll need to be cleaned up.
It’s six games. The weather has sucked for most of them. It’s not a problem yet. But for a team that’s crossing its fingers that the pitching is good enough to get an elite offense to Omaha, the last thing the Rebels want to do is require those pitchers to get more outs than they have to by letting them down in the field. Ole Miss has 11 errors in six games. That’s not great.
Let’s take stock of the bullpen
If there is one area of this team in which I think we’re all actually learning something concrete, it’s the bullpen —and it’s because of both who is and who isn’t coming into games. But it should be prefaced with this: Ole Miss has played six games. Of the 54 innings it could’ve played, the Rebels have only played 44. Add in a rain out, and that isn’t exactly optimal for getting guys work in a bullpen with a lot of new faces. I do think we learned something this weekend though.
In a 5-2 game on Friday night, Bianco went to freshman lefty Hunter Elliott. Elliott proceeded to strikeout the side in the sixth inning and pitched two frames of one-run ball. He’s allowed one hit in 3.1 innings over two appearances. Elliott is a name that repeatedly surfaced throughout the fall and into preseason scrimmages. He’s one of two left-handed arms in this bullpen. He throws strikes, the fastball plays and he’s looked in control in both outings. Ole Miss has two midweek games this week against Louisiana-Monroe. Bianco initially named Elliott the Wednesday starter and Jack Washburn as the Tuesday starter. As I wrote this note, Bianco announced that he’s flip-flopped the two. That tells me that he wants Elliott rested and available this weekend when the team travels to UCF. Bianco clearly trusts Elliott and he’s delivered so far.
Brandon Johnson finally got into a game this weekend. He is a casualty of Ole Miss not having played a close game and the reduced number of innings. He looked sharp in the inning he threw. He hit 95 regularly and the slider was sharp. It was exactly what you’d expect him to look like.
Ole Miss is likely going to play a close game this week. When that happens, that does the pitching plan look like? Does Dougherty bridge the game to Johnson? Is it Elliott to Johnson with Dougherty available for later in the weekend? It’s impossible to know with the limited sample size, but I imagine this coaching staff would like to see that scenario play out this week. As great as this offense has been, a couple of close games before SEC play would be helpful.
Hayden Dunhurst didn’t play
Dunhurst injured his hamstring last Saturday. Bianco originally said Dunhurst would be back by (last)Friday at the latest. Bianco is not one to give concrete deadlines without certainty, and Dunhurst not being ready is a little bit concerning, but there’s a chance that it is just out of an abundance of caution. If he doesn’t play this week, then it’ll become a little more concerning.
Malone goes yard for run-rule walk-off
This was a cool moment. Tywone Malone ended the Sunday game with an opposite-field shot to right to 10-run rule the Rams. The big fella was excited about it too.
Malone isn’t going to have a huge role with this team this year, but by all accounts he is a vibrant personality that is an asset in the clubhouse and dugout. I may be reading too much into this, but look how excited the rest of the team got when he touched home plate. Some of that is the natural jubilation that accompanies watching an SEC defensive tackle hitting a home run, but there was a little something extra in that celebration compared to others hit in a 10- run game. It was a cool moment.
Depleted hoops team loses to Texas A&M
I am not really sure what else there is to say about the basketball team. Kermit Davis is likely going to get another year to fix this. But it’s a tough product to watch. Some of that is a rash of injuries. Some of it is missed evaluations and having too many non-contributors on the bench.
I’ll submit to you this: the crowd — with a canceled baseball game, mind you — spoke louder than anything else. Neal McCready put it better than I could’ve. Here’s his column from Saturday. I think Davis gets more time, but if there comes a point in which a decision hangs in the balance, empty seats are often the tipping point. The next nine months will be telling with regard to the future of this basketball program.
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Rebels add TCU’s Coleman to defensive line
We never got to this last week with the newsletter going on hiatus due to the Trimiesha Joyner story I was working on. That doesn’t mean Randall Joyner stopped doing work. Ole Miss added TCU transfer outside linebacker Khari Coleman. This move was yet another major addition for Ole Miss via the transfer portal. Coleman was a freshman All-American in 2020 and Big 12 co-defensive freshman of the year. An injury hampered him throughout last season, but he made four starts and registered 19 tackles with 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
I won’t mince words here: Ole Miss has changed the trajectory of the program and the 2022 team with its work in the transfer portal. I was fairly skeptical of relying on the portal so heavily on the heels of some disorganization as it pertained to landing some marquee high school prospects during the early signing period, but to Kiffin and this staff’s credit, they executed their plan. There is a strong argument to be made the 2022 Ole Miss roster will be more talented from top-to-bottom than the 2021 team. Losing Matt Corral obviously changes the calculous significantly, but the way this newly-put together staff has reshaped this roster and replenished the talent pool via the portal is incredibly impressive.
Ole Miss will have a lot of new faces next year. The players and the coaching staff will have to gel. The friendly early-season schedule allows them time to do that. The last seven weeks of next football season will be as entertaining and as interesting any season in recent memory.
On the horizon
A week of newsletters covering baseball, football and whatever else pops up
I am working on a couple of feature stories for Rebel Grove.
Mailbag Friday podcast.
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by smashing the subscribe button below. It is free.