Monday Scoop
No NCAA Tournament for Ole Miss and a predicament in the rotation
Photo credit: Ole Miss Athletics
What a busy weekend it was and a ton to cover. We’ve got a new podcast out with Collin Brister discussing Ole Miss’ loss to LSU, what to do with the Rebels’ weekend rotation and what to make a of Sunday’s loss to ULM. We’ll discuss a lot of that here, too.
Let’s dive in.
No Dance for Ole Miss
Ole Miss learned its postseason fate on Sunday, less than 48 hours after a loss to LSU in the quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament. The Rebels are the fourth alternate in the NCAA field, meaning they didn’t get in but are essentially on a waitlist in case a team, or in this case, four teams, have to drop out of the field because of COVID-19. The deadline is Tuesday for a team to drop out and its spot be filled by one of the four on the list. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So, what happened? How did this frustrating, somewhat deserving team come close but fall short? The brief answer is that the Rebels lost to LSU on Friday evening in a game that was there for the taking. The pace played into Ole Miss’ hands. The game was tied at 58 with seven minutes to go and the Rebels went over four minutes without a field goal after that. To me, that’s where the game was won and lost. As has been the case for much of the season, Ole Miss struggled to run good half court offense in the game’s most crucial possessions. Go back and watch each possessions from the seven minute mark until Romello White’s lay up with 2:58 left. There’s little movement and purpose and the Rebels looked like a team that still didn’t know their offensive identity. In some ways, they were fortunate the four-minute FG drought only resulted in a seven point lead for LSU.
As we discussed in this space Friday, LSU was going to score at a base level that would require Ole Miss to put together an uncharacteristically good offensive performance. It needed three things to happen:
Romello White to be as good as advertised. Check that Box. He had 20 points and 13 rebounds.
2. They needed either Matthew Murrell or Jarkel Joiner to complement Devontae Shuler with a 15ish point game that was somewhat efficient. Check that box. Joiner played out of his mind in the second half and posted 26 points.
3. Shuler had to be as good as advertised. This box wasn’t checked. The senior struggled, going just 3-13 from the field for seven points and had the ball stripped in the most crucial possession of the game with the team down four with 35 seconds left.
It’s not particularly complex. When Shuler had a stat line that read like the one above, Ole Miss typically lost this year. The result was no different on Friday, but the consequences were more drastic. It’s not fair to put the loss entirely on Shuler and he should still be rightly remembered as one of the great players in program history. It is a shame Friday turned out the way it did.
As far as the NCAA Tournament and how it played out Sunday, I didn’t have much of a problem with Ole Miss being left out. They were in a pool of about 10 resumés for the last four spots in the field. Can you argue they had a better case than the teams that got in? Sure. No pushback here. But they had a chance to separate themselves and remove all doubt on Friday and the same issues that led to two losses to Georgia, one to Vanderbilt and a home loss to Mississippi State, plagued them again when it mattered most. They left it in someone else’s hands and didn’t get a favorable outcome. So it goes.
A silver lining:
I get that the NIT doesn’t move the needle, but it provides guys like White and Shuler on opportunity to suit up in an Ole Miss uniform at least one more time. This year, the tournament is in the DFW area. The Rebels are No. 1 seed and will face Louisiana Tech. Here’s the bracket.
Rebels take a series from ULM
Ole Miss dropped a lethargic finale to the Warhawks Sunday in a game that highlighted the most pressing question surrounding the pitching staff. Overall, I did not find the weekend as underwhelming as some might have. Here are a few thoughts.
At the plate:
Elko continues to rake. He had Ole Miss’ first five RBIs on Friday thanks to a grand slam and hit a ball Sunday that enters a group that can be counted on one hand in terms of how far it traveled out of Swayze Field. He’s hitting the ball over the fence and into gaps. He’s spraying it to all fields and is getting on base. Elko’s walked 12 times. That’s two shy of tying the how many he drew in the three previous years combined. This is exactly what this lineup needs him to be and it looks as if he’s arrived as a hitter.
Kevin Graham had the best weekend of anyone on the roster. He went 8-11 with a pair of home runs and two walks. He’s hit four home runs in six games. What is most significant about this? One homer came off a lefty and Graham is producing no matter which side the opposing pitcher throws from. This was the hang up with Graham through his first two years and was really the only the hesitation going into this season with regard to this season and whether or not he could play every day. Can he hit left-handers to justify playing him every day. That question has been answered. That is a good thing for Ole Miss.
Is a rotation shakeup looming?
Derek Diamond struggled again in Sunday’s loss. A five-run fourth proved to be his undoing, but wasn’t completely his fault. Ole Miss botched a pair of bunts that turned outs into base runners and put Diamond in a bad spot. Maybe now that Bianco doesn’t bunt anymore, they don’t practice defending it? I kid, but woof. That was ugly. The bottom line is that Diamond has been pedestrian since a great outing to open the year against Texas. He’s failed to reach the fifth inning in his last two starts has been more susceptible to hard contact.
Diamond’s most logical replacement shined on Saturday. Drew McDaniel, filling in for Doug Nikhazy, threw 5.2 innings of two-run ball (one earned) with five strikeouts and no walks. His stuff is electric and his command looked sharp. With the way McDaniel has pitched this year, now many more shaky starts can Diamond afford before a switch is made?
Bianco didn’t have much of an update on Nikhazy Sunday, which was to be expected. As we outlined last week, the only way to test his injury is for him to throw. That’ll likely happen Tuesday in a bullpen session. They will know know more about his status for Auburn then. What was interesting was Bianco saying Gunnar Hoglund will remain the Friday night guy and Nikhazy will pitch on Saturdays when he returns. I am a fan of the move. Hoglund’s the best pitcher on the staff and is in the same tier arm talent-wise as any Friday night guy in this league, and that’s saying a lot.
Isn’t there an argument to be made this move could unlock a better version of Nikhazy? He thrived as a freshman in the Saturday role and saved that 2019 team’s season. Saturday in the SEC is a much different mindset than Friday. Nikhazy has admitted as much in the past. You’re facing first-round talents almost weekly and there’s a sense you have to do more. Does a move to a familiar role on Saturday free him up? He’s a damn fine pitcher and battles despite not having elite-level stuff. To me, this is a good fit that could potentially produce a version of Nikhazy we haven’t seen since 2019.
JT wins The Players:
Justin Thomas was seven shots back after 36 holes and put on a clinic in the final two rounds, chasing down a packed leaderboard and adding another notch to an already ridiculous start to his career. If not for landing on the fringe on the 72 hole, he would have hit all 18 greens in regulation on Sunday and the approach on 16 for eagle was just absurd. It was incredible to watch. Golf has a ton of likable stars and he is one of them. It seems like every three weeks I am wondering how anyone beats ___ guy when he’s firing on all cylinders, only to ask the same question about someone else a month later. It was a great week and great to see fans back on the course.
On the horizon:
plenty of March Madness coverage. I’ll fill out a bracket either tomorrow or Wednesday and the Wednesday podcast will be NCAA Tournament focused. As always, podcasts are on Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts.
Newsletters all week. Hoping to turn this into a five-day a week thing.
Mailbag Friday podcast with a lot of baseball as SEC play arrives
That’s it from me today. Thanks to all the new subs from over the weekend and thank you for continuing to read. As always, feedback and discussion is welcomed.
