Not all losses are created equal, and the defeat that Ole Miss suffered at the hands of Georgia last week, an embarrassing 42-7 thrashing at home in what was arguably the biggest regular season game of the last decade, felt like more than a loss.
It felt like the cracks in a shaky foundation widened into chasms. The issues that have plagued this Ole Miss team all season surfaced to the fullest extent at the worst possible time. Ole Miss allowed 295 yards rushing and are now the worst rush defense in the Southeastern Conference by a fairly significant margin.
A banged up offensive line struggled to protect Trinidad Chambliss as Georgia mercilessly blitzed the Rebels signal caller for the entirety of the game.
Ole Miss struggled to run the football without Kewan Lacy. The Rebels ran the football 31 times for 66 yards in the loss. Ole Miss averaged 2.1 yards per rush. Georgia averaged 6.1 yard per rush.
Deuce Alexander, Ole Miss’ best wide receiver, did not register a catch in the game. He got injured at some point, but it was far enough into the contest that the fact he did not catch a ball is still a pretty eye-popping statistic.
Last week’s loss was an unmitigated disaster in all forms. It felt like more than just one just one loss that drastically shrunk Ole Miss’ chances to make the College Football Playoff. Why does it feel that way?
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Has the coaching staff gotten the most out of this team?
Entering this season, the Ole Miss coaching staff was primed to be at the center of criticism if the Rebels did not perform up to expectations, and that is where most of the frustration and criticism has settled — on this inexperienced coaching staff. The Rebels have a first-year head coach who was hired out of necessity rather than pure merit (not a shot at Golding, just the reality of a tough situation last December). They have an offensive coordinator calling plays for the first time at the power four level.
The question is, has this relatively inexperienced coaching staff actually fallen short of expectations? It’s a more interesting question than you might think. Entering the season, most oddsmakers had Ole Miss’ win total set at either 7.5 or 8.5 wins. Barring a complete collapse, the Rebels will beat Wofford and Mississippi State to exceed the lower end of that total, and if they find a way to win tomorrow in Norman, they’ll likely exceed the higher end of that preseason total. By definition, that’s exceeding expectations. But, of course, that doesn’t really tell the entire story.
Ole Miss returned a Heisman candidate at quarterback, and at running back, and returned enough on the offensive line to feel more than confident about that unit being one of the better offensive lines in the league. Defensively, in the preseason, this coaching staff touted this defense as potentially being as good as the 2024 Ole Miss defense, which was one of the best in college football. Whether Las Vegas considered Ole Miss a playoff contender or not, there were enough pieces returning to reasonably expect the Rebels to be in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth, which I guess they technically still are (more on that in a minute).
I think where the frustration originates, for mostfans, is what this team was sold as versus what it has actually looked like through nine games this season. Fans were told the defense had a chance to rival what was a special unit in 2024. Nine games in, the reality is that Ole Miss is one of, if not the worst, defense in the SEC. The Rebels are the worst rush defense in the conference. They are a bottom-five pass defense despite the transfer portal additions in the secondary being lauded as game-changers that would bring positional versatility and depth to the back end of an already good defense.
John David Baker’s offensive scheme was supposedly “80 percent the same” as the one Ole Miss ran under Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weiss Jr., en route to a CFP Semifinal appearance last season. It doesn’t look similar at all. And while the offense has been good on third down conversions and in the red zone (Ole Miss ranks top three in the SEC in both categories), Ole Miss is 11th in the SEC in rushing, 13th in completion percentage and 12th in yards per pass attempt. This has been a confounding offense to watch because the production in some surface level statistical categories don’t really match what it’s looked like on the field, particularly on crucial downs in key moments. The offense has been mired by slow starts all season, which drastically changes the trajectory of games with as bad as the defense has struggled.
Ole Miss doesn’t play complimentary football. Operationally, the Rebels have looked clunky all season. The timeout usage has been odd. Ole Miss often wastes timeouts due to not lining up correctly, or trying to get the other team to jump on a fourth and short (rather than just take a delay of game), or the inability to get a snap off in time on downs in which it actually planned on running a play. The Rebels kick long field goals in weird spots and seem to have very little feel for the flow of a game. Ole Miss kicking a 56-yard field goal last week, in cold weather, down 14-0, with an injured kicker, on the heels of the defense giving up a 5-play, 96-yard touchdown drive on the previous possession, remains one of the most baffling decisions I have seen in college football this season. Did anyone think field goals were going to help Ole Miss at all in that game last week? Of course not. It was obvious within the first two drives of the game.
Ole Miss has been a really frustrating team to watch from a game management and operational standpoint.
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It’s not just that Ole Miss has lost three games, it’s how it’s lost them
Ole Miss has lost three games this season and have trailed by 21 or more points in all of them. That’s not just losing, that is getting your ass kicked. Two of those defeats have come on the road, which I suppose is somewhat more justifiable — though I would argue that looking wholly unprepared to play in two of the three road games Ole Miss has played this year (with the one outlier being Vanderbilt, which is not exactly a hostile venue) is an incredibly alarming development as the Rebels head to Norman, Oklahoma with their thin Playoff hopes hanging in the balance.
The sluggish starts offensively, the odd game management decisions, and looking completely unprepared in two of the three road games is what I believe to be the source of the frustration from the Ole Miss fan base, even if the Rebels haven’t technically fallen short of expectations, or at least not yet.
The Ole Miss fan base has grown accustomed to winning at home. Ole Miss had lost one home game since 2022 prior to last Saturday’s defeat, and that one loss should come with an asterisk given that the head coach had his mind on other things that week, to put it politely. Ole Miss has very rarely been blown out at all in the last six seasons. The two that come to mind are Georgia in 2023, a game in which the Rebels simply didn’t have the horses to compete, particularly in the trenches. The other was 2022 Arkansas, when again, the head coach’s mind was somewhere else. The point is that Ole Miss hasn’t been blown out very often, and fans have grown accustomed to the Rebels being in every game they play, and so the fashion in which the team’s three losses have occurred have likely been jarring for many fans.
The rest of this big picture conversation is likely better-suited to continue at the end of the regular season, but given how last week’s loss to Georgia unfolded, I thought it was necessary to give some big-picture thoughts.
Ole Miss is not eliminated from the CFP
With as frustrating of a loss as that was for Ole Miss last week, the Rebels are nowhere close to being eliminated from earning a College Football Playoff berth. I’ve seen a lot of opinions to the contrary this past week, that Ole Miss has no chance to make the 12-team playoff and is only playing for pride at this point — and that’s just simply not true at all.
I understand where that sentiment comes from. Until last week, I held the belief that while Ole Miss had some issues on both sides of the football, the best version of this team could compete and beat anyone in the country. I no longer believe that. I was fooled by one really good half against LSU in which Trinidad Chambliss played a nearly perfect two quarters of football. I thought that game and that win proved Ole Miss could play with and beat anyone on its best day. I doubt I am alone in being fooled by this.
The reality is that Rebels have not really shown at any other point this season an ability to beat good teams. With that said, there aren’t that many good teams in college football this year, and they’ve got to somehow put 12 teams in this field. So, whether you believe Ole Miss can advance in the playoff or not is irrelevant when discussing the Rebels’ chances of making it into the field, because they absolutely still have a decent shot to make it to the playoff.
Allow me to outline the case.
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The path to the Playoff
Ole Miss is currently +210 to make the College Football Playoff on FanDuel. The Rebels are +175 on DraftKings. Prior to this week’s CFP rankings coming out on Tuesday, in which the Rebels landed 19th, those odds were around +120 to +130. So, essentially, the Rebels are a little better than 2-1 odds to make the playoff, and were nearly even money at the beginning of the week. ESPN gives Ole Miss a 37 percent chance to make the CFP.
The only reason I bring up all of the odds-making jargon is to underscore the point that Ole Miss is nowhere close to being out of the fight in its quest to make this 12-team tournament. The Rebels no longer control their own destiny and will need some things to go in their favor over the final three weeks of the season, but it’s far from a pipe dream like many have made it out to be — which, again, I understand because this does not look like a playoff-caliber football team in any form or fashion right now. But that doesn’t change the fact that there are a lot of flawed teams this season and there will be some pretty weak teams occupying the 9-12 seeds this year.
Ole Miss might not look like a playoff team, but it’s far from eliminated in terms of earning the title of one.
An Ole Miss rooting guide
Ole Miss came in at No. 19 in this week’s CFP rankings. It’s two or three spots lower than I thought they would come in (I was thinking 15-17), which doesn’t help the Rebels’ chances at all. But the good news is that most of the teams Ole Miss needs to lose this week play on the road this weekend.
I’ve prepared a rooting guide, if that sort of thing interests you.
***Disclaimer, you might read this and think “this guy is an idiot, Ole Miss needs the other team to win.” And you might very well be right. Some of this is subjective. I just looked at each game and jotted down my first thought as to who Ole Miss fans should root for and why.***
Florida at Kentucky: Pull for Florida. Ole Miss needs Kentucky to get a third loss. The Wildcats sit near the playoff cut line, making them one of the most important teams for Ole Miss to catch going forward.
Tennessee at Texas A&M: Though highly unlikely, Texas A&M somehow finding a way to give Tennessee a third loss would be huge for Ole Miss. Given that Marcel Reed still plays quarterback for the Aggies, this is a pipe dream, but I suppose not impossible given how hard it is to win on the road in this league.
Baylor vs. BYU: Pull for the Baptists to spank the Mormons. The Cougars are a pesky two-loss team that sit at No. 10 in the rankings currently. The Rebels need the Big 12 to be a one-bid league. Root for Utah to win out and for BYU, and every other Big 12 team in the running, to lose.
South Carolina at Arkansas: Four weeks ago, Shane Beamer looked like a dead man walking. Now, the Gamecocks (No. 17) are playing as well as any team in college football. Arkansas is terrible, but this would be a classic Shane Beamer loss that would give South Carolina a fourth loss and eliminate any slim shot it has/had to make the CFP.
Wake Forest at SMU: Same thing as the BYU logic. Ole Miss needs the ACC to be a one-bid league (Miami). Wake Forest is currently 13 and could easily get in if it wins out.
Houston at Colorado: Houston is another two-loss Big 12 team that Ole Miss needs to lose. The Cougars are currently 14th in the rankings. This is not likely to happen because Deion Sanders is not a serious football coach, but I suppose it’s possible.
Purdue at. Iowa: Iowa, who I actually think is really good this year, is a two-loss Big Ten team that Ole Miss needs to have a third loss. This is highly unlikely, but if you dare to dream, dream for a Boilermakers upset.
Alabama at Vanderbilt: Pull for Vanderbilt to spring an upset here and give the Tide a third loss, though I am not sure this one matters a ton given how high Alabama is in the rankings right now as a two-loss team.
Boston College at. Notre Dame: Congrats to Notre Dame for winning one of its two real games this season and making the CFP because of it. The Irish beat Miami without the Hurricanes’ best player. Root for Boston College to do the impossible, I guess.
Texas at LSU: I think the correct move here is to pull for LSU to give Texas a third loss given that three-loss LSU still has to go to Knoxville next week, but considering that Judas wearing a visor roams the sidelines for the Tigers, I will be rooting for LSU to lose both weeks, go 7-5 and disband its football program.
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A look at Oklahoma: the Sooners are anemic on offense
All of the rooting guide nonsense will be moot if Ole Miss is unable to pull off a win in Norman on Saturday against a Sooners team that has fallen short of expectations this year, but is fresh off a road win at Florida.
Oklahoma has been terrible offensively this year. Quarterback John Mateer has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC . Oklahoma lost in week two at Michigan, 17-10, a game in which the Sooners would’ve won handily if they were halfway competent on offense. The next week, they scored just 14 points against New Mexico in a 14-6 win that officially sounded the alarm bells on this putrid offense. After the game, Mateer was asked what he saw on a play in which the Sooners scored one of their two touchdowns against the Lobos, a long pass play . Mateer answered by saying he looked around, heard the crowd yelling, which told him someone must be wide open, found the guy and threw it — I’m not joking. It’s one of the most shocking admissions I have ever heard from a major college athlete.
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement in terms of how well Mateer sees the field.
Here are some stats to show just how bad Oklahoma is on offense this year. Each is where the Sooners rank in the SEC in each category
15th in the SEC in scoring offense
15th in yards per game (338).
Dead last (16th) in rushing offense at 110 yards per game
14th in yard per play
15th in yards per rush
16th in offensive touchdowns
16th in rushing touchdowns
16th in first downs
You get the idea. They are horrific. But, some context is needed. Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle after a home loss to South Carolina two weeks ago and promoted Jason Witten to interim offensive coordinator. Witten is one of the best tight ends to ever play football. He was hired as the tight ends coach in January. He had been coaching high school football for roughly five years prior to that. Now, he’s calling plays for an SEC program. It’s truly a fascinating and remarkable story.
Albeit a very small sample size, the early results for Witten have been pretty damn good. Last week, in an impressive 23-7 road win over Florida, Oklahoma had scoring drives of 10, 15 and 20 plays, with the latter two being touchdowns. The 20-play, 89-yard touchdown drive took up 12 minutes and 45 seconds of time in the fourth quarter and iced the game for the Sooners. They methodically moved the football down the field, which is what head coach Brent Venables prefers to compliment his defense — a unit that is one of the best in college football.
The Sooners defense is really, really good
For as bad as Oklahoma is on the offensive side of the ball, the Sooners are really good on defense. They have the best pass defense in the conference, and are pretty stout against the run as well. This defense, along with special teams, single-handedly won the Texas game in Dallas a few weeks ago.
Oklahoma allows just 27 percent of opponent fourth down conversions, which is fourth nationally. Its pass rush can wreck possessions for opponents, averaging nearly three sacks per game.
The Sooners are a program built around defense, and if they ever get the offensive coordinator hire right and find a competent quarterback, they will be one of the better teams and programs in the SEC.
A perfect mirror test for Ole Miss
I think this game will be a fair and potentially sobering look in the mirror for Ole Miss. Oklahoma is going to show exactly who Ole Miss is versus what it thinks it is.
There’s no reason the Oklahoma offense should move the ball regularly up-and-down the field. The Sooners have not run the ball with any sort of effectiveness this season, but that can all change if Ole Miss plays like the worst run defense in the SEC and allows them to stay ahead of the chains like the Rebels have been prone to do this season.
If the Rebels allow them to convert third downs and put together 14, 15 and 20-play drives like Oklahoma did against Florida, Ole Miss is sunk. If Ole Miss gets off the field on third down and bottles up an already limited Sooners offense, the Rebels will be in great position to win the game.
The Ole Miss offense is going to have its hands full, but if it’s supposedly one of the better offenses in the conference, with one of the best quarterbacks in college football, it shouldn’t have a problem scoring enough points to be able to win this game with a limited offense on the other sideline. Twenty-one points should be plenty enough to win this game, unless the Rebels defense fails tremendously.
Can Ole Miss look like a cohesive offensive unit for four quarters on the road? Will it come out looking somewhat prepared? As I’ve mentioned repeatedly throughout this column, Ole Miss has fallen behind by three scores or more in the two real road games it has played. If that happens on Saturday, Ole Miss is screwed. The Rebels will have no shot to come back to win the game against a defense of Oklahoma’s caliber. It will also be particularly mystifying as to how the Rebels fell into such a deep hole given the Sooners’ offensive woes.
Again, Oklahoma is going to show Ole Miss a pretty fair reflection of who this football team actually is.
The Rebels still have plenty to play for. The Sooners do not. Ole Miss is coming off of an embarrassing loss at home. The Rebels are a pretty battered football team. They should win this game regardless. This one feels like a gut-check game and a gut-check moment for the program in year one of a new coaching staff. Will Ole Miss show up and take care of business to keep its postseason hopes alive? We’ll soon find out.
Thanks for reading. We will have more on Sunday.
Good write up. Not feeling good about tomorrow. WAOM. Lastly, I’d rather sand paper my own ass and daub it with turpentine than cheer for LSU.