Friday Scoop
Ole Miss-heavy letter: Rebels a win away from the NCAA Tournament
Photo credit: Ole Miss Athletics
Writing a little later this morning, but a happy Friday (The People’s Holiday) to all. Speaking of The People’s Holiday, here’s the podcast from late last night. We talked a lot of hoops, took questions and previewed some baseball, which is pretty much we will do here too. Let’s dive in.
Handling business:
Ole Miss did exactly what it was supposed to do last night in Nashville. It took care of a shorthanded South Carolina team that didn’t really want to be there and set itself up for a 40-minute audition to gain entry to the NCAA Tournament. Before we get to that, here are some thoughts from last night.
Romello White was rock solid, as he has been all year, but it was particularly important in the first half when the game was still close. South Carolina, for all of its flaws, did a nice job on Devontae Shuler defensively during the first 20 minutes and White’s presence offensively on the interior was key to the Rebels keeping the Gamecock’s at arm’s length and eventually creating separation in the final five minutes. White is an under-appreciated player and Ole Miss is the best version of itself playing through him. He’s smart, strong and a decent free throw shooter. White finished with 17 points and seven rebounds on 8-12 shooting. Feed him.
The same could be said about Jarkell Joiner in terms of giving the Rebels a boost in the first half. Kermit Davis mentioned at halftime that Joiner played downhill better than he has for much of this year and ended up with 18 points and three assists. That’s a good sign and what’s kept him from being the multi-dimensional scorer they’d hoped he would be this season. If Ole Miss got this version of Joiner all year, we’d be talking about seeding rather than potential bids. It cannot be stated enough how badly the Rebels need him to clone this performance Friday night against LSU.
Louis Rodriguez and Robert Allen were quite good on the glass. They played role in Ole Miss extending its lead by creating extra possessions on one end and preventing them on the other. This was nothing new for Rodriguez, who is as good as an example of any of a guy that makes plays that affect games but go undetected on a stat sheet.
Bubble watch:
A surprising amount of dust has settled with regard to this weak NCAA Tournament bubble. Ole Miss is now the first team out of the tournament, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. They moved up five slots in a day.
The even stranger part of this (and favorable for the Rebels) is looking at the teams around Ole Miss. How many of them are still playing basketball? Saint Louis? Nope. Xavier? No. Boise State, Syracuse, Drake? You guessed it, no. You get my point. This has shaped up about as perfectly as possible so far for Ole Miss. You should root for Georgetown to beat Seton Hall and UCF to beat Memphis. Colorado State and Utah State — the two teams in front of Ole Miss, per Lunardi — play each other Friday night. How fortunate is that? There’s actually a world in which Ole Miss could get into the field even if it loses to LSU, but it would be an uncertain path to take and would essentially be a nitpicking of résumés as they hold their breath hoping the committee puts theirs in the right pile. But it is wild to me we entered the week talking about whether two or three wins was enough and now, three days later, two is a certainty and . . . one might leave them with legitimate hope? Win tonight and remove all doubt.
A win away from The Dance:
As I just outlined, the equation is simple: if Ole Miss beats LSU tonight, it will earn its second at-large birth in three years. That would drastically how Kermit’s tenure to this point is viewed, as well as improve the perception of a program (with a McDonald’s All-American on the way) that has little history of consistently making the sport’s grandest state. Who would have thought this after a home loss to Georgia in January? I may do a newsletter solely consisting of message board threads from December and January. I probably won’t, but don’t tempt me.
Anyway, the path won’t be easy. This is a brutal match up for the Rebels. LSU’s starting five has three of the top nine scorers in the SEC, including the league’s leading scorer Cam Thomas (23.1 ppg). The Tigers average 82.7 points per game, just 0.6 of a point behind league-leading Arkansas — a team that looks like it may never lose another game again. As good as this Ole Miss team has been defensively this year, LSU is still likely to score at a level that is going to require Ole Miss to be something it hasn’t for most of the season. Even if the Rebels play as well as they have all year on the defensive end, its hard to see that being enough without a an A+ (by their own standards) performance offensively.
They’re the worst three-point shooting team in the conference, but they can’t afford to be on Friday night. The Rebels are going to need Shuler and Romello to be as advertised and either Joiner or Matthew Murrell to have a special performance. Speaking of Shuler, we discussed his legacy and his incredible toughness and durability in yesterday’s newsletter. You know what changes legacies forever? Dropping 25 and eight with no turnovers to stamp your team’s NCAA Tournament ticket. I don’t mean to sound unfair, and it’s not like his perception and place in the history of the program will change based on this one outcome, I am just pointing out that if he goes off, it will be a night that many remember for a long time.
I am fascinated to see how Kermit Davis tackles this LSU team defensively and how that strategy changes from their first meeting. I imagine Ole Miss will want the pace to be slow and will mix in a decent bit of zone. What is their best defense outside calling the FBI to remind them who coaches the Tigers? I guess we will see.
Warhawks on the diamond:
The header was just an excuse to say Warhawks, a fine mascot. Ole Miss plays UL-Monroe in its final series before SEC play. It will be without Doug Nikhazy, who is sidelined with a chest strain, but Peyton Chatagnier returns. Here’s a couple quick thoughts.
Collin pointed this out on the podcast and I agree with the sentiment/question posed. Is it odd that Bianco, as of this writing, has McDaniel going on Saturday and kept Diamond on Sunday? Why not bump your two weekend guys up and have the replacement go on Sunday? Maybe it’s as simple as not wanting to alter Diamond’s routine and schedule as he works his way through a bit of a rocky stretch. Conspiracy Rippee might suggest it is a subtle message or motivating to Diamond? I am halfway kidding, but who knows.
Piggybacking off of that last thought, I am interested to see how both pitch because — and this is just a guess based on nothing else — my hunch is that Nikhazy is going to need another week off. The only way to test the injury is to throw and it’s not like they can have him throw Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to see how the muscle feels. They are probably getting one bullpen to see what Nikhazy’s status is from a health and discomfort standpoint and will then have to make a decision. If he’s still not ready, that means going into SEC play without the team’s ace. McDaniel pitching well would make them feel better about the possibility of Doug sitting. Same goes for Diamond. Their outings this weekend will be interesting to watch.
How does Chatagnier feel? I assume he’s fine, but hamstring ailments can linger throughout a season it will be nice to see confirmation that he is 100 percent. Beyond that, let’s see if the lineup continues to hit. I don’t have much else for you in terms of things to look out for.
NEWS | We couldn't be more excited to add another number to the outfield wall at Swayze Field commemorating a two-sport Rebel legend, Don Kessinger. 📰 bit.ly/2OOhylF @kessing | #HottyToddyOn the Horizon:
Sunday pod from me and Collin talking baseball and selection Sunday
I am going to write something on this hoops team regardless of outcome. It’s the most consequential game of the season so I will have some thoughts.
Working on a podcast intro and some cool sponsorship stuff.
That is all from me today. Thanks for subscribing and tuning in. Please tell your friends. We are growing faster than I anticipated and that is a tribute to you fine people. I get a notification every time someone subscribes, and as snarky as I can be at times, it is a great feeling that both motivates me and excites me to produce better content. Let’s keep it rolling. Have a safe and happy weekend. We’ll talk soon.