Friday Five: is this the most important game of the Kiffin era?
A look at South Carolina, the significance of this game, and five things I'll be thinking about at kickoff
Ole Miss is in a must-win scenario in early October as it travels to face South Carolina in Columbia on Saturday. We’ve combined two newsletters into one here due to some scheduling mishaps. So, let’s take a look at the Gamecocks and run through five things I’ll be watching for and thinking about at kickoff on Saturday.
Is this the most important game of the Lane Kiffin era?
I have to admit that I am still a little bit shocked that Ole Miss actually lost to Kentucky on its own home field last Saturday. That really has little to do with Kentucky. I certainly understand in a literal sense how the Rebels lost. Kentucky boasts one of the best defensive lines in the SEC. The Wildcats were tremendous in the secondary and put on a tackling clinic. But when thinking through the various ways the 2024 season might play out, I never gave much serious consideration to the scenario of Ole Miss losing its conference opener, and eliminating almost all of its margin for error to make the playoff, with seven SEC games remaining before the calendar turned to October. The Rebels are in a precarious place.
If you thought last week was a struggle, Ole Miss is now going on the road to face arguably the best defensive line in the SEC, a unit that undoubtedly has the two best edge rushers in the conference — with South Carolina coming off of a bye week. The Gamecocks are a couple of plays and some very poor luck (in a loss to LSU) away from being 4-0. It was apparent Ole Miss’ fortitude would be tested after last week’s stunning defeat. The Rebels now face back-to-back road opponents coming off a bye. These games are now must-wins in terms of their postseason aspirations. All of this had me wondering: is this the most important game of Lane Kiffin’s time at Ole Miss? I think so. And you can make an argument it’s the most important game in his head coaching career.
If Ole Miss does not win this game on Saturday, all realistic paths to the College Football Playoff are eliminated. Yes, I suppose if the Rebels lost on Saturday and then ran the table the rest of the way to a 10-2 record, it’s possible they’d still get in the playoff. But how is it realistic to project Ole Miss to beat Oklahoma, LSU and Georgia if it lost to Kentucky and South Carolina? The entire thought process is delusional.
Ole Miss is a team built mostly through the transfer portal. Not all transfers are the same. Lane Kiffin and his staff have done as good of a job as anyone in the sport building depth and stability through the portal via guys with multiple years of eligibility remaining, which has evolved into multiple years within the Ole Miss program. But the Rebels are still relying on several probable one-and-done transfers. These are commonly referred to as hired guns. Walter Nolen, Princely Umanmielen, Juice Wells, among many others are names that come to mind. They all came here to accomplish one goal this season: get to the playoff and win a championship. I have to wonder how hard it will be to keep team cohesion when that goal is out of reach in the first week of October. It’s the harsh reality of this new version of college football. I don’t have any information to suggest any player would opt out of the rest of the season, nor am I insinuating anyone specifically would things in, but it’s unrealistic to think that the level of collective buy-in and focus would remain the same if the Rebels are all but eliminated from the playoff with a loss. This game is absolutely crucial to keeping the proverbial train on the tracks.
What about Kiffin? There’s already been constant (baseless) speculation about him taking the Florida job should it come open — though I am not sure how going 9-3 or 8-4 with his most talented roster in his time at Ole Miss would help his case. What does next year look like if this one turns out to be wildly disappointing? I always thought it was odd that this season was dubbed “The Last Dance” by several players. Even Kiffin has indirectly mentioned it before. In some senses, I understand it. The team’s core (Jaxson Dart, Tre Harris, Caden Prieskorn, the ghost of Ulysses Bentley, among several others) are all in their last years of eligibility. They all view this as their final ride in college football. But unless I am missing something, Ole Miss will in fact field a team in 2025 and Kiffin is under contract for several more years. Is it really a smart marketing tool to dub this season the last dance? In the grand scheme of things, a nickname for the most anticipated season in a generation doesn’t really mean a ton, but it’s indicative of the heightened expectations this team shoulders, and in many ways, has welcomed. This same team is now teetering the line between meeting those expectations and abject failure before the season’s halfway point. Again, it’s a precarious place to be.
I don’t know what the future holds for Kiffin after this season. But it’s certainly in his best interest to right the ship and make the playoff, whether that is for his own personal benefit, or the good of the Ole Miss program, for both the present and the future. Saturday is a must-win in the most literal sense for a team that was a preseason darling and dubbed a title contender. The wheels may come off this thing if the Rebels lose. Kiffin has coached in big games at Ole Miss and won many of them. Last year’s LSU game was the last time I wondered if a game was the most important one of his career. The Rebels were a week removed from a dud performance at Alabama. Everyone was wondering if Kiffin could ever actually win a ‘big game’ (I found that entire debate to be silly). He delivered in dramatic fashion.
What does he have in store for Saturday? I have no clue. But I am certain that there is no greater contrast in how Kiffin, this team and this program will be discussed and perceived than at the conclusion of Saturday’s game depending on the result. A win means the Rebels showed resilience, bounced back from a tough week and are one more road test away from being back in a solid position to make the playoff. A loss will lead to Ole Miss being labeled fraudulent, a paper tiger, an overhyped trojan horse, and could commence an ugly collapse.
We are thrilled to have C Spire as a sponsor of the Rippee Writes Newsletter and Podcast. It’s to upgrade your home internet to the best service in the market with C Spire Home Fiber. C Spire Home provides the most reliable internet service with 99.99% uptime. C Spire provides 1 Gigabit and 300 Megabit internet packages to homes across Mississippi, Birmingham, and southern Alabama regions. C Spire is also proud to announce the release of their brand new 2 Gigabit and 8 Gigabit home internet plans. Save yourself the hassle by not waiting for your internet connection to drop with the other guys. Call or go online to cspire.com/home today and use promo code “RIPPEE” at checkout for 1 month free service.
Let’s take a look at South Carolina
Shane Beamer is one of my favorite coaches in college football. He seems like a guy who would be awesome to have a beer with. He’s caught some shit over the last couple of years for being a bit whiney, a schtick guy, and has been accused of being inauthentic. For the life of me, I do not understand why. His weekly press conference this week was half an hour long. That’s pretty unheard of. I had South Carolina beat writer Jordan Kaye on my podcast this week and asked him if that length of a presser was the norm. He answered with an emphatic yes and said it would’ve gone longer had media relations not cut off questions. I find Beamer to be genuine, engaging and as down to earth as a millionaire football coach can be. Something Beamer said during his opening statement at his SEC Media Days press conference in July has stuck with me.
“I really, really like our football team going into 2024,” Beamer said. “Most of you don’t. That’s okay. When you guys do your picks on Thursday, we will be picked 14th, 15th or 16th, I am sure. We have a lot of young talent on this team with veteran leadership too.”
Safe to say, Beamer, to this point has been vindicated. As I mentioned earlier, South Carolina is some poor luck from being 4-0. The Gamecocks destroyed Kentucky in Lexington in their SEC opener. They fell to LSU, 36-33, in a game that saw them lose their starting quarterback in the first half and had a game-deciding pick six nullified by a questionable horse-collar tackle call. I am not sure how anyone could’ve watched the LSU-South Carolina game three weeks ago and determined LSU was a better football team that day. The Gamecocks boast a fierce defensive line, a veteran running back and a talented young quarterback. Williams-Brice Stadium will be a raucous atmosphere and the home team will be ready and rested off of a bye week.
Will Sellers play?
South Carolina’s offense is led by a redshirt freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers. He was a 3-star prospect who signed with the Gamecocks in their 2023 class. After Oklahoma transfer and former 5-star prospect Spencer Rattler departed the program (drafted by the Saints), South Carolina went hunting for an established starting quarterback in the portal and essentially struck out. It landed former Oregon and Auburn quarterback Robbie Ashford. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because, once upon a time, Ashford committed to Matt Luke’s Ole Miss program in June of 2019. The dog-pee Egg Bowl ensued that fall, which led to the firing of Luke and, eventually, Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead. Moorhead then took the offensive coordinator position at Oregon and convinced Ashford to go with him. Ashford started a game in Oxford as Auburn’s quarterback in 2022 during the final weeks of Bryan Harsin’s doomed tenure as the Tigers’ head coach. He’s a gifted athlete and a dangerous runner, but is limited in his ability to throw the football.
Sellers, to this point in his career, is not much of a different story, but has a much higher ceiling as far as throwing the football. Sellers hasn’t thrown for more than 166 yards in a college game. That’s somewhat misleading. He was 10-14 for 166 yards in the road win over Kentucky. He carried the ball eight times for -11 yards (he was sacked four times). The game against LSU seemed to be Sellers’ coming out party. He was 9-16 for 113 yards through the air and ran 10 times for 88 yards in less than two quarters of football before he suffered an injury shortly before halftime. South Carolina was forced to play Ashford for the second half. It lost 36-33 and threw just four passes in the second half. The Gamecocks got screwed by officiating and should’ve won the game anyway.
On paper, the Gamecocks’ offense has not been much different with Ashford versus Sellers, but I think that is deceiving due to a small sample size. South Carolina is much better with Sellers at quarterback. He’s supposedly practiced all week and was listed as probable on the initial injury report. It would be a stunning development if he didn’t play. That will make things more challenging for the Ole Miss defense.
Football season IS BACK. If you’re a wagering man and aren’t using SkyBox, you will likely lose money and have no one else to blame but yourself. Sign up for a picks package now and ensure you profit this football season. They’re the best in the business. They rack up units every single week. When you do go purchase your picks package, enter the promo code “RIPPEE” to get 20 percent off any purchase. Buy it now, use their picks, make a profit and thank me (and SkyBox) later.
The rest of the Gamecock offense is pedestrian
South Carolina lacks a bonafide No. 1 receiver. Its best candidate to be that now plays for Ole Miss: Juice Wells. I suppose that is a storyline in its own right. Wells did not exactly leave South Carolina on good terms. Wells missed most of the 2023 season due to a broken foot. He seemingly expressed his desire to remain with the Gamecocks for 2024, but ultimately ended up at Ole Miss. Surely, it wasn’t due to tampering, right?? Point being, the environment on Saturday was already going to be hostile. The Wells subplot will only add to that. The ever-chatty Beamer was asked this week what he thought of when the name “Juice Wells” was mentioned. He answered “good football player,” and left it at that.
The rest of the South Carolina offense has been pretty pedestrian. The Gamecocks’ running game has benefitted from the addition of Arkansas transfer Raheim ‘Rocket’ Sanders, and will be much more potent in the ground game than Kentucky, but are still not an overly dynamic running game.
I would venture to say that South Carolina’s offense is still an unfinished product due to Sellers missing the LSU game. I am not totally sure what to expect from the Gamecocks on offense. The Ole Miss defense was fine against Kentucky, though the secondary let the Rebels down. Sellers is a great runner and the Gamecocks have a veteran running back. If South Carolina is able to pass the football with any sort of consistency, then it will clearly mean the Ole Miss secondary is a gigantic issue. I cannot see a scenario where the Gamecocks run all over the Rebels — but then again, I never saw a path to Kentucky beating Ole Miss last week, so what do I know — but if Ole Miss loses this game, in all likelihood, it is because the secondary did not hold up against a bunch of average receivers and allowed Sellers to run wild out of structure.
South Carolina’s defensive line is mean
The Gamecocks boast arguably the best defensive line in college football. Beamer and his staff signed true freshman 5-star Dylan Stewart, who has immediately become a game wrecker in the SEC. The Gamecocks also added Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard, who, to put it mildly, has become a remarkable Robin to Stewart’s Batman.
This should be especially troubling for Ole Miss given the fact that left tackle Jayden Williams, who was a late scratch last week, has been ruled as doubtful to play this Saturday. For context, I’ve been told that Williams’ injury is more serious than initially thought. I was told on Monday evening that Williams would not play again for Ole Miss this year. I was updated on Thursday that there is a chance that he returns at some point before the end of the season. Point being, he will not play on Saturday, and an offensive line that was down three starters already entering last week will be without its left tackle. To use a phrase I was known to use often in my radio days: that is a suboptimal scenario for the Rebels.
Ole Miss has been the victim of poor injury luck up front. It needs to get healthy on the offensive line quickly. Saturday is going to be a struggle for this group as it faces arguably the best defensive line in the conference.
As a Rippee Writes subscriber, LB’s Meat Market will give you three 6 oz. bacon wrapped filets for $20. Just stop by, show proof of subscription and they’ll get you set up. Then go find your own favorites. It’s the best butcher shop in the world.
Let’s take a look at five things I will be thinking about at kickoff on Saturday
1. Will Ulysses Bentley be freed?
Yes, I am going to continue to beat this dead horse, mostly out of disbelief. Is Ole Miss really going to try to go through an SEC schedule with just Henry Parrish and Matt Jones at running back? We’ve been told repeatedly that Bentley is simply the third string running back right now. Kiffin said “it is what it is” on Monday. This is mind boggling to me. Bentley is somehow not as good as Jones, but was better than Jones last year. He doesn’t pass block (which Ole Miss doesn’t ask its running backs to do very often) but was good enough to pass block for 15-20 snaps a game last year? He’s not explosive enough, but yet is explosive enough to return kicks. Even if the coaching staff truly believed this (I don’t think they do), what do they have to lose at this point? The running game was terrible last week. What harm would it do to play Bentley and/or Rashad Amos? Why is 2024 the year it was decided that using three running backs is just not an option?
Nothing about this makes any sense, and I remain flabbergasted at the stubbornness of the coaching staff. I am sure there is a lot more to the story that I do not know, but absent an injury or Bentley committing a felony, I do not understand what Ole Miss has to lose from playing him.
3. Offensive line health
Rinse, repeat. Ole Miss needs to get healthy on the offensive line. The Rebels were down three starters last week when they faced a fierce Kentucky defensive line. The opposition doesn’t get any easier this week. It’s not just that Ole Miss was down three starters, it’s who those starters are: Williams, Warren and James. Those are three of the four most veteran, experienced linemen on the team who have taken a TON of snaps at Ole Miss. Beyond the injuries, another reason this unit has struggled to find cohesion is partly due to the fact that the guys that are available to play are the newcomers like Diego Pounds, Julius Buelow and Nate Kalepo. It’s no one’s fault. It’s simply bad luck. But the Rebels desperately need a clean bill of health up front.
James is listed as questionable on Ole Miss’ injury report. Warren, who dressed but did not play last week, isn’t even on the report. I suppose that’s a good thing? If those two play on Saturday, it will be significantly great news for the Rebels.
3. The secondary
Again, same story, different day. This unit grabs too much. It seems to be slightly out of position too often. Trey Washington spoke last week about this group needing to do a better job reacting to the route combinations opposing offenses throw at them. Even if you think last week’s game was poorly officiated, this is now a three week sample size of the secondary committing too many penalties. Spoiler alert: They’re not going to be officiated any differently. If anything, opponents are going to ask the officials to watch this group closely.
South Carolina’s passing game has been anything but dynamic. The Gamecocks lack a bonafide No. 1 receiver. If they have success throwing the football on Saturday, Ole Miss is likely not going to win the football game.
4. Caden Davis
Davis was pretty good for Ole Miss last year. He made 15 of 20 field goal attempts and was 14-17 inside 50 yards. Saturday’s miss against Kentucky to seal the game might be the worst kick he’s made in an Ole Miss uniform.
Davis has a massive leg and has shown great range. If you’ll remember, Kiffin trusted Davis enough to let him attempt (and make) a 56-yard field goal to ice the game at Tulane last year. Does Kiffin’s confidence level in Davis waver at all last week? Is he more aggressive on 4th down in plus territory if the alternative to going for it is a 50-55 yard field goal? Those are the types of decisions and plays that can swing games. Kiffin is already one of the most aggressive coaches when confronting fourth down decisions. I am curious to see if he becomes even more aggressive after last week.
5. Body language
I generally find analyzing body language through a television screen to be a pretty stupid exercise, but I am curious to see if Ole Miss shows that it is a pissed off football team last week. Do the Rebels play with an edge? There are certain moments in certain games in which you can sort of just tell a team is locked in and out for blood. Ole Miss is a better football team than Kentucky, but lost due to its own poor play. If there was ever a time to be angry and motivated to right the ship and make a statement, It’s this week. The Rebels’ season hangs in the balance.
If things don’t go according to script early in the game, if Ole Miss falls behind early, is this team resilient enough to overcome that? Or will it be shell shocked, mope around and allow things to unravel. This group talks often about culture and resiliency. The Rebels were a resilient group last year. Pushed to the brink, the 2023 team most always countered by becoming the best version of itself. Is this team that tough? We’re going to find out on Saturday.
Thanks for reading. We’ll have postgame analysis on Sunday.