Friday Five: a look at LSU and a significant moment for Ole Miss as a program

A scouting report on the Tigers, injury news and five things to watch for

photo credit Ole Miss Athletics

Ole Miss is a day away from a massive road game against a pedestrian but capable LSU team looking to validate itself. The Rebels enter this match-up as a fairly beat up roster playing their seventh game in as many weeks, trying to survive one more test before a badly needed bye week of their own. As weary as Ole Miss might be, its greatest and toughest test to this point in the season comes this week.

The loss to Kentucky has rendered a road game at night in Death Valley a de facto must-win. This is a significant moment for a team and a program trying to prove it is a major player in the modern college football landscape. The Rebels’ playoff hopes hinge upon winning this football game.

Here are a few storylines from the week as well as five things to watch when Ole Miss-LSU kicks off on Saturday evening.

What to make of those injury reports

The initial injury report was released on Wednesday evening. Ole Miss had 17 players listed. There are some notable names and statuses to cover here, but I first would like to point out one thing: professional troll Lane Kiffin is very obviously using the injury report as a message for his thoughts on the requirement. Kiffin loves sending messages through indirect mediums. On multiple occasions, he has publicly stated that he does not like the newly-implemented injury report mandate because he didn’t think it was necessary. When Kiffin doesn’t like something, he’s going to let you know in more ways than one.

Last week, Ole Miss listed 25 players on its injury report. Since then, the Rebels played a road game at South Carolina, a contest that featured several Ole Miss injuries (some real, some fake, I presume), yet had eight fewer players listed on this week’s injury report. It doesn’t make sense to me. This is not a criticism of Kiffin as much as it is an observation of something that he clearly doesn’t take seriously. And in fairness, why should he?

Like pretty much everything else in major college football, the injury report is modeled after the NFL’s. The terminology “out, doubtful, questionable” are carbon-copy terms of an NFL injury report. In the NFL, coaches and franchises are fined heavily for misrepresenting injury report information. Technically, the same framework is in place for SEC programs based on the following criteria:

• Out (i.e., will not play/0% chance to play)

• Doubtful (i.e., unlikely to play/25% chance to play)

• Questionable (i.e., uncertain to play/50% chance to play)

• Probable (i.e., probable to play/75% chance to play).

In general, information in the NFL is more public than it is in the mafia-like environment college football programs cultivate. Who at the SEC determines the validity of those percentages and what does that actually mean? The NFL is a $20 billion entity. Its teams have 53 players on an active roster. The NFL spent $22 million on a farce of an investigation into whether or not Tom Brady and the New England Patriots slightly deflated footballs. Much like programs’ attitudes toward the NCAA, does anyone really believe the SEC actually has the time, resources, energy or interest to effectively police this? Of course not. I am not even insinuating that Kiffin is misrepresenting injury statuses on his report. I am just saying I doubt he takes it too seriously given the lack of realistic repercussions — so you should take it with a grain of salt too.

Thursday night’s updated injury report saw Ole Miss’ number of players listed shrink to 11. Luis Moore was upgraded from questionable to probable, and every single player listed as probable on Wednesday’s report was removed altogether. So, what should you make of this report each week in terms of the accuracy of it? I don’t have a definitive answer. I just focus on who is listed as questionable. From there, your guess is as good as mine as to whether those listed as such end up playing in the game.

Anyway, onto the relevant features of this week’s reports.

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1. Matt Jones is doubtful

I am not going to yet again rehash the running backs situation at Ole Miss. So, apologies to any first time readers. I feel like most of you reading this right now have likely been along for the ride for a while, so I’ll ask this: is Ulysses Bentley finally freed? Is this the week he finally gets meaningful carries in the game? If Jones does not play, I don’t see how any other scenario is possible. Ole Miss can’t make it through this game with solely a banged up Henry Parrish running the football. Kiffin even alluded to Bentley having a prominent role this week in his weekly appearance on RebTalk on Thursday evening.

“Someone else (other than Jones) will get carries,” Kiffin said. “Hopefully we have Bentley and hopefully he'll do really well. It's like some people think I don't want him to do well. I don't care who does well, I just want to win games. If this is his chance and opportunity, I think he'll do really well."

Beyond the absurdity of gaslighting the fanbase for not blindly accepting that the second best running back on the team (behind an All-American in Quinshon Judkins) last year is somehow just a borderline third string player that can’t be trusted, I think Kiffin even mentioning Bentley by name as someone who will get carries in Jones’ absence tells you all you need to know. He’s going to play a role on Saturday.

2. Umanmielen questionable is a positive sign

He missed last week’s game with an undisclosed injury. I was told it was potentially a multi-week injury and that his return would more than likely come after the Rebels’ bye week when they return home to play Oklahoma. Umanmielen remaining as questionable throughout the week seems like good news, assuming this report is somewhat valid. Ole Miss didn’t miss a beat last week in his absence as Suntarine Perkins filled the role and played exceptionally well. With that said, Ole Miss is obviously a better team with Umanmielen healthy and available.

3. What about Tre Harris?

He left last week’s game with what appeared to be some kind of ankle or foot injury. Kiffin said in his Monday press conference that Harris was not close to coming back into the game at South Carolina and that if the LSU game was played (Monday), Harris would not play. I have been told Harris will be healthy enough to play in this game. If true, that’s a massive development for Ole Miss.

4. A Jeremy James return?

James hasn’t played since the season opener due to a hand/wrist injury. He dressed last week but did not play. He’s Ole Miss’ most experienced lineman. With Caleb Warren’s return last week, the Rebels are slowly getting healthier up front despite losing Jayden Williams in the Kentucky game for what sounds like will be several weeks. I am not sure how much, if at all, James will factor into the offensive line rotation this week. But he’s played a ton of SEC football and has game experience at both tackle and guard. James hasn’t played tackle since 2022, but if Diego Pounds or (an already nicked up) Micah Pettus, James’ versatility could potentially be useful.

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A look at LSU

The Tigers are 4-1 and coming off of a bye week. LSU is a prolific passing offense with a bad defense and an inconsistent running game. The Tigers lost their season opener to what appears to be a pedestrian USC team. The next week, LSU led 23-21 against Nicholls State in the third quarter before running away late in the game for a 44-21 victory. The Tigers were extremely lucky to win a road game, 36-33, at South Carolina the next week. The Gamecocks lost starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers in the first half and were the victim of a questionable personal foul call in the fourth quarter that negated a pick six that would’ve basically ice the game. The next week, LSU found itself tied 17-17 at halftime to a terrible UCLA squad, but ultimately won 34-17 and then destroyed South Alabama before the bye week.

This is not a good LSU team. After having one of the nation’s worst defenses in 2023, the Tigers did little to upgrade their personnel and instead banked on an improved defensive coaching staff to solve their defensive woes. The results have been predictably subpar. Last year, its defensive flaws were masked by an incredibly explosive and efficient offense led by 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, who threw the ball to a pair of first round draft picks in Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas Jr.

I never bought into the idea of LSU being good this year. With those three aforementioned offensive weapons gone and a defense that needed a personnel overhaul but didn’t receive one, it made little sense to me how any rational human could make an argument that LSU was a potential playoff team. I have figure that most pro-LSU arguments were rooted in the outdated thinking that plagues college football consumers and is centered around the fact that they wear yellow helmets and pants, play in Death Valley (mostly at night!), launder money from children’s hospitals, eat gumbo while talking with a cool accent and have won a few national titles in the recent past.

With that said, this version of the LSU offense is still humming with Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback. He’s been really good and has talented receivers to throw to like Kyren Lacy. Nussmeier’s tremendous play has led to a minimal drop-off in LSU’s offensive production. He will test the Ole Miss secondary like no one else has to this point in the season.

Ole Miss is a decidedly better and more talented football team than LSU. Most of the commentary you’ve read about the game this week has likely been focused on LSU coming off of a bye and it being a night game in Death Valley. Both of those are valid points. I’ve seen good Ole Miss teams pee down its leg in Baton Rouge and lose despite being the better team. But that’s still not a practical way to analyze this game. Here are a few things you should know about LSU.

1. The Tigers are still searching for consistency in the running game

LSU has averaged just 131 yards rushing per game. The Tigers lost veteran running back John Emery for the season in the loss to USC, which has led them to struggle running the football behind what was touted to be a wildly talented offensive line. The coaching staff vowed to be more physical in the running game this season, but to this point, it simply hasn’t turned out that way to this point.

True freshman Caden Durham got a lot of touches in the South Carolina game and ran for 98 yards on 11 carries. Two weeks later, he ran for 138 yards on seven carries against South Alabama. It sounds like LSU feels as if its found an element of explosiveness it's been lacking (sound familiar?) in Durham and I figure he gets a healthy amount of carries in this game as the Tigers hope he solves their woes in the rushing attack. LSU wants to be more balanced and compliment its passing attack better than it has so far this season and it sounds like Durham’s emergence has led them to believe they are closer to achieving that.

2. Exterior of LSU offensive line is legit

LSU was thought to have the best offensive line in the country entering the season, largely due to left tackle Will Campbell and right tackle Emery Jones being surefire first round draft picks in the 2025 LSU draft. They’re the real deal. The battle between Ole Miss’ pass rushers and these two gifted tackles is going to be one of the most interesting subplots in this game. LSU’s ability to protect Nussmeier, a pure pocket passer, has been instrumental in his success and the overall explosiveness of the Tigers’ passing game. LSU has had some struggles in run blocking, which is where I think Ole Miss can really alter this game with Walter Nolen, but the two cornerstones of the LSU offensive line are as good as you’ll find in college football.

3. LSU receiving corps is injury-riddled

The depth of the Tigers’ receiving corps is impressive. Lacy is by far and away their most polished and productive receiver, but their depth has been eroded by injuries. Kyle Parker is out for this game. Both Chris Hilton and C.J. Daniels are listed as questionable but are unlikely to play. LSU writer Glenn West was on the podcast this week. He explained that though Hilton is listed as questionable, he has yet to play this year as his recovery from an injury has been sluggish. He did not seem optimistic that Daniels would play either. Tight end Mason Taylor has been a key piece in the offense and Aaron Anderson has emerged as a reliable receiver option, in part due to injuries in the receiving corps. This LSU passing offense is dynamic. Nussmeier is a good quarterback and has plenty of weapons to throw to, but the pass catching depth for LSU is slim at this point in the season.

4. LSU defense has been in scheme limbo

I am not sure there has been a stranger career trajectory in recent memory than LSU edge rusher Harold Perkins. He burst onto the scene as a true freshman in 2022, tallying 7.5 sacks and being a core piece of an LSU defense that powered the Tigers to an SEC West title in Brian Kelly’s first year. His three-sack performance in a November road game at Arkansas that year was one of the most impactful and dominating performances from an individual defensive player that I have seen in a while. Last year, the coaching staff tried to mold him into a more traditional interior linebacker role — one that comes with more reads and responsibilities. It did not work out well.

This year, LSU planned to be a fairly traditional 4-2-5 defense with Perkins at the star position, but he again proved he could not quite handle the workload of being a traditional inside linebacker, so LSU shifted back toward a 4-3 scheme with Perkins being more of an edge pass rusher closer to the line of scrimmage. Perkins tore his ACL against UCLA and is out for the year, which led LSU to lean back toward the 4-2-5 scheme. That’s a lot of in-season shuffling.

This LSU defense features some capable pass rushers, competent linebacker play, but is pretty brutal on the back end. The Tigers have allowed the most passing yards per game in the SEC. Perhaps the bye week gave this unit time to find a plan and an identity, but at some point, a lack of talent trumps everything else.

Now that you know a bit more about LSU, here are five things I will be looking for and thinking about at kickoff tomorrow night.

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Friday Five: all about the offense

1. the Ole Miss passing game will carry it to a win

One of the reasons last week’s performance felt underwhelming despite blowing out an SEC opponent on the road is the fact that the offense wasn’t sharp. Jaxson Dart missed on a few deep balls. It felt like Ole Miss had multiple chances to turn the game into a lopsided snoozer but couldn’t quite connect on the big play. This LSU secondary is atrocious. The Rebels will win this game with ease if the Dart and the plethora of pass catchers he has to throw finally gel and prove to be as dynamic as most thought they would be entering the season. Ole Miss has struggled to consistently run the football against any opponent with a pulse. I think this has adversely affected the offense as a whole, but it could be masked better if the Rebels were crisper in the vertical passing game. If Ole Miss is effective throwing the football early on in this game, I love its chances to win convincingly.

2. A tall test for the secondary

Conversely, the Ole Miss secondary will face its toughest test by far. Nussmeier and the LSU receivers will tax a secondary that played better last week, but has committed too many penalties this season. Getting Louis Moore back will help. Ole Miss played Jadon Canady more at corner last week and played Yam Banks 56 snaps at safety. I have no clue whether or not that was a matchup specific thing, or if the Rebels found something in the back end of their defense. With as fierce as the Ole Miss front six appear to be, the recipe for the Rebels losing this game is getting shredded by Nusmeier and the LSU receiving corps.

3. The running game

This note should just have a Friday Five slot reserved in perpetuity. As we covered earlier (and really all season), the running game for Ole Miss has been subpar. Jones is unlikely to play. Does Bentley getting carries by default finally elevate this running game? Is the explosiveness he showed in 2022 and 2023 the missing element to getting this running game off the ground? Or do we find out the coaching staff was correct in their reservations about his explosiveness after an offseason toe surgery (in addition to whatever other reservations they have that has led to playing a walk-on in front of him). With Warren and (potentially James) back healthy, at the very least Ole Miss is as well-equipped on the interior offensive line as it has been at any point this year. If the running game continues to struggle on Saturday evening, it will seem clear to me that it is a relatively unfixable issue that this team will simply have to overcome the rest of the way — as inexplicable as that sounds.

4. Pass rush

Ole Miss has been consistently great on the interior on defense. Opponents have struggled running the football against the Rebels. They’ve also consistently put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The LSU tackles will pose the most resistance the defensive line has seen this year. If Ole Miss is able to overcome that and pressure Nussmeier, it is going to win the football game. Nussmeier, by his own admission, is no threat to run the football. He is a pure pocket passer. If the Rebels speed up his internal clock and do not give him ample time to throw, a potent LSU offense becomes somewhat toothless — assuming the secondary is not a total travesty. I will be keeping a close eye on this, particularly early in the football game, as this might be where this game is ultimately decided.

5. Another test of a veteran team’s resolve

Ole Miss is better than LSU. But it’s going into a hostile environment, at night, against a well-rested Tigers squad. Plenty of good Ole Miss teams have gone down to Baton Rouge and succumbed to the environment and lost the game. How does this team, one littered with veterans — and a core that repeatedly talks about culture, resilience and toughness — handle all of that?

This is a massive football game for Ole Miss. If the Rebels win, they enter a bye week as a one-loss team, firmly in the mix for a college football playoff slot and its two toughest remaining games at home. A victory in Baton Rouge would mostly erase the damage of the Kentucky loss. If Ole Miss is defeated by LSU, the path toward earning a College Football playoff berth becomes incredibly murky and somewhat unrealistic. It didn’t have to be this way. Had the Rebels handled business against the Wildcats, this game would be viewed in a much different light. Why? Ole Miss is playing its 7th game in as many weeks, against an LSU team off of a bye. If the Rebels were undefeated, this game would likely be viewed as one in which they could basically put themselves on the fast track toward the playoff, would be in the conversation for winning the SEC, earning a top four seed and a first round bye. The game would be important, but far from a must-win. But that is not the reality the Rebels live in. This game is essentially a must-win.

In one of the most consequential spots in program history, does Ole Miss meet the moment?

Thanks for reading. We’ll have more coverage on Sunday.