For Ole Miss, was the loss to LSU an anomaly or a sign of things to come?
How telling was the Rebels' loss to LSU?
We were all primed to learn a lot about this Ole Miss team at the culmination of its first true road test at LSU this past weekend, mostly because of how little we actually knew about the Rebels as they meandered through a soft schedule in the first seven games of the season. Though it wasn’t the lesson Ole Miss fans desired to learn, the wealth of knowledge this loss offered still ultimately proved to be true. The Rebels were thrashed in Death Valley, 45-20. They were outscored 42-6 over the final three quarters of the game.
Despite a promising start that likely had a few of you wondering just how high this team could fly, the game quickly devolved into a thorough ass kicking.
So, what now? And what specifically did we learn? Let’s dive in.
The 2022 defense is less talented than the 2021 version.
The Ole Miss defense had a really bad day on Saturday. LSU amassed 500 yards of offense, and aside from a red zone stop on the game’s first drive, and another in plus territory on the next possession, the defense offered very little resistance. Even on those two aforementioned possessions, it felt like the Tigers were still moving the football at will and aided the cause when the Rebels did in fact make those two stops.
LSU averaged 5.3 yards per rush on 48 rushing attempts. That’s back-to-back weeks an SEC opponent ran the ball exactly 48 times on Ole Miss and averaged more than 5 yards per carry. Auburn averaged 6.3 yards per attempt (never mind the fact that both clubs entered their matchup with the Rebels struggling to run the football with much consistency due to poor offensive line play). It’s nearly impossible to win football games when allowing that kind of output on the ground.
The pass defense wasn’t much better, and was perhaps more frustrating for you to watch as it felt like death by a thousand paper cuts. Jalen Daniels threw 248 yards at 11.8 yards per completion. He threw just six incompletions as the speed of the Tigers wide receivers, coupled with some seemingly soft coverage from the secondary, sliced the defense at will for four quarters.
We pondered last week whether the defense’s performance against Auburn was a sign of what loomed at LSU. Neither team boasted an explosive offense, but LSU was essentially a better version of Auburn — a better runner and thrower at quarterback and more talent at receiver. The Auburn performance did indeed foreshadow what was to come.
You’ve all seen what happened by now. There really isn’t a ton of merit in rehashing it. But I will leave you with one last stat. While watching the game again on a plane ride from Dallas to Memphis (much to the chagrin of the sleeping woman next to me who apparently thought she bought 1.5 seats instead of one), I charted each of the 37 first-down plays the LSU offense ran. I will add a disclaimer that this was calculated by hand by a guy who struggled with math at Jackson Academy, but by my count, of the 37 first-down snaps the Tigers ran, they had 2nd & 5 or better on 31 one of those. Think about that for a second. That is an astounding stat. Thirty-one times, LSU had a second and favorable yardage to gain a first down over the next two plays. It’s also worth mentioning that two of the six times they did not, the down was 2nd & 6. So it’s not like the Rebels wreaked havoc on those other six plays anyway. Simply put, it is nearly impossible to win football games when you allow an opposing offense to be comfortable that often. I don’t want to be mistaken as an alarmist, but if that statistic is anywhere close to that mark over the final four games, I am not sure how this team wins a single one of them. I don’t necessarily believe it will be that astonishingly bad in the final four contests, but man, that is an ominous sign.
So, how did this happen? How has this defense seemingly regressed over the last three weeks? Given the competition the Rebels faced in five of their first six games, the better question is probably how this defense has strayed so far from the 2021 unit that carried the team through the second half of the season. The answer is evident in the results. Ole Miss doesn’t have the front line tacklers it did a season ago. Chance Campbell, Mark Robinson and Jake Springer have proven to be crucial losses that have been harder to replace than we maybe gave it credit for. It’s odd to think that Campbell — a one-year Maryland transfer, Robinson — a converted running back from Southeast Missouri State, and Springer — a one-year safety from the Naval Academy, would be invaluable cogs in a massive defensive improvement from 2020 to 2021, but that is undoubtedly the case.
The Rebels don’t have the same level of talent at the linebacker position as they did last year. Austin Keys is a fine player, but isn’t as quick and as instinctual as either Robinson or Campbell. Troy Brown (who, in fairness, is playing injured) is an undersized linebacker that once played safety his freshman year at Central Michigan. He is a productive player, but is not as impactful as either linebacker the team was tasked with replacing. Depth is also an issue. Keys was an immensely valuable piece as a reserve player behind those two last year. But now he’s anchoring the unit, and what remains behind him? I am admittedly an untrained football eye, but Ashanti Cistrunk looks slower than Brown and Keys when he enters the game. Khari Coleman (also banged up) has played some linebacker this year as the team tries to mold him into a peg that’ll fit that hole, but isn’t really a natural in-the-box linebacker. After that.. can you name the next linebacker? I can’t either. That’s a depth issue. The team had the same depth issue last year. It was a significant factor in the decision to move to a 3-2-6 defensive scheme. Ole Miss was fortunate to have Robinson and Campbell remain healthy for 12 games. Now, both are gone. The top-end talent isn’t as good and the depth, or lack therof is the same.. or worse? The struggles don’t seem like that big of a mystery now, do they?
Campbell had really good closing speed and great instincts. Think back to the amount of times you saw him meet a ball carrier at the line of scrimmage to stop a play dead in its tracks. Robinson was raw, but that dude was out there to violently collide with people as quickly and as often as possible. Neither are walking back through that proverbial door. We’ll get to this piece of the puzzle later, but I am not totally sure how this gets fixed with the current options on the roster.
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Where is the defensive line?
I of course don’t mean that question literally. There are three of them out there every Saturday(despite many of you arguing there should be more of them out there at once). What I mean by the question is that, during fall camp the coaching staff publicly sold the idea that this team finally had real, SEC-level defensive line talent and improved depth for the first time since Kiffin took over the program. Can you really say that has proven to be true? It’s not a shot at the coaching staff. Adding J.J. Pegues and Jared Ivey, and having K.D. Hill, Cedric Johnson, Tavius Robinson and Tywone Malone return a year older and more seasoned certainly makes for a more complete unit on paper. Ivey made the biggest play of the game against Kentucky. Pegues has had moments.
Beyond that, what has stood out? Johnson has been plagued by injury the last two weeks. That hurts. Hill only has 12 tackles in four conference games, one tackle for a loss and no sacks. Pegues has 13 total tackles in SEC play with no TFLs and no sacks. Sack numbers aren’t usually fair gauge for interior defensive linemen, but when the team is allowing five yards per rush in its last eight quarters of SEC football against middling opponents, the lack of overall production is worth pondering. (Tavius) Robinson has been pretty productive on paper. Ivey has been fine. Johnson has still managed two sacks in SEC play despite playing 19 total snaps in the last two games. That would lead you to believe the problem is on the interior, hence the struggles in stopping the run. Of course, it’s not that simple, but there is a parallel there.
Where is Malone? He isn’t a freshman anymore. Here are his snap counts, in order, in the four SEC games: 2, 11, 3 and 8. Here are Iton’s: 3, 20, 2, 8. And Gordon’s: 6, 10, 9, 19. Does that qualify as quality defensive line depth? If you’re nodding your head yes, I have a great beachfront property in Pontotoc to sell you. It’s worth noting that Iton’s highest and Gordon’s second highest snap count total came against Vanderbilt.
We’ll cover the schematic piece of it in a second, but for now, the point is that the defensive line’s production has not matched its preseason billing. That is troubling on multiple fronts. With a banged up and thin linebacker room, Ole Miss needs its defensive line to be a strength of the team. That simply has not been the case.
Can you point to a defensive lineman that has made a steady impact over four quarters in any of the SEC games the Rebels have played? A guy you routinely notice for four quarters that leaves no doubt as to whether he is leaving his imprint on the game? Ole Miss had one of those last year. His name was Sam Williams. Players of his caliber are hard to replace, and he had a pretty good Robin opposite of him in Johnson. Now, a hobbled Johnson is Batman, and while Ivey hasn’t been a bad successor as Robin, it’s clearly not as formidable of an edge duo as the team had last season. That was woefully evident on Saturday afternoon. Ole Miss got no pressure rushing three guys and didn’t get home when it decided to blitz. That is a recipe for any quarterback with a pulse to carve up a defense with ease. That’s exactly what happened and that is a huge issue. This defense is designed to protect the secondary from giving up explosive plays, but that becomes more difficult when there is no pass rush. Literally every aspect of defense becomes more difficult when you cannot pressure an opposing quarterback. Football can be a complicated game, but in that sense, it is pretty simple.
So, to recap so far. The linebacking corps isn’t as good as last year, the depth is still an issue, injuries have impacted the unit more than in 2021, and the idea of defensive line depth is seemingly nonexistent. That reeks of a below average defense.
Changing scheme has been a topic of conversation
I’ve seen this talked about a lot over the last couple of days. Why does Ole Miss only play three down linemen on defense? That isn’t enough to stop the run and is setting them up for failure, many have said. I don’t really agree with that, but I also can’t totally dismiss the idea of a schematic change. Everything should be on the table at this point. But if you fall into the line of thinking outlined above, I would ask you this: didn’t it work last year? The 3-2-6 scheme that proved to be a wonderful evolution that helped maximize the production of a defense with limited depth is now a useless strategy that should be lit on fire? That doesn’t really pass the smell test. This scheme can absolutely work. Just because it hasn’t does not mean it cannot. That doesn’t really make any logical sense.
With that said, if the cogs in the machine are inferior to the ones that comprised it last year, is it worth altering the machine’s construction? I will listen to that idea. But I will also ask what the plan is to go about doing that. We just covered the fact that it seems clear that the coaching staff doesn’t trust as many defensive linemen as originally thought. Would adding another defensive line slot to a unit lacking depth solve any problems? I suppose they could take the 4 or 5 guys they trust, play them a bunch of snaps and roll with it due to lack of another option. But they are sort of already doing that with three down lineman. It’s also easier to clamor for a four-down front without knowing or understanding the ripple effects of totally scrapping a scheme in favor of a new one in the middle of a season. It would change the linebacker’s responsibilities. It would presumably alter blitz packages and I am certain there are other side effects beyond the base level ones I just posed. Now, it’s not impossible. We saw Ole Miss go to a four and five-man front in the second half at Vanderbilt to negate the Commodores’ ground game. It is doable, but, with all due respect, that was Vanderbilt, and it was for a half of football. Completely changing the scheme doesn’t seem like a viable option.
That shouldn’t be mistaken for me arguing that everything should remain the same. They have to change something. I just don’t know what that something is. Add in the fact that this front seven (or front five, whatever) is pretty banged up, and it just feels like an untenable situation through the lens of constructing a winning defense.
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Was this a one-off or a sign of things to come?
That leads us to the biggest question: the one posed above. Was this 45-20 loss simply a bad day in Baton Rouge — a place Ole Miss has not won since 2008 — or was it a foreboding sign to temper expectations? Look, college football is a weird sport. The transfer portal has made it even stranger on a week-to-week basis. Every Saturday, both good and bad teams put up baffling efforts that make us all wonder how in the hell to prognosticate this wild sport. I am not going to sit here and tell you that this team sucks and that a losing steak is imminent and that you were all dumb to believe anything otherwise. But in terms of the question I posed, I tend to side with the latter — that this loss told us more about this team than any of the seven wins did. Some losses are more telling than others. To use a contrasting example, last year’s loss at Auburn felt more like “ehh, the team was banged up, it was a tough environment and Matt Corral got hurt. They are probably still fine.”
This loss was far more alarming, in my opinion. I think it told the story of a team that is not quite ready to be a contender, due to all of the depth and top-end talent issues we covered above. Maybe I am wrong. I would love to sit here and tell you that this was an anomaly, and that Ole Miss could still win out and be in the mix for a division title at the end, but at this point, that would be wildly irresponsible. If you are looking for that perspective, I would direct you to other websites whose brand is to tint everything through red and blue glasses. I may be full of sh*t, but I’d like to think I do not regularly sell you a crock of sh*t in this space each week.
This should also not be construed as an “I told you so” column. I am the one who pondered the idea of this team being primed to contend for an SEC Western Division crown. I wrote about this defense potentially being more multiple than it was a year ago. I opined that the offense’s rushing attack would give them a chance against anyone, anywhere. I thought the defense was better than it was.
I also don’t necessarily feel the need to admit I was wrong, per se. I find the current hot take climate of sports media to be completely nauseating, lazy and so unimpressive that I believe debate shows could be serviceably carried out by any clown with a microphone, a basic grasp of the English language and opposable thumbs. I try to use this space as a vehicle to make people think, weave in my honest opinion when warranted and let the reader shape their own thoughts from it. At the risk of this sounding like an incoherent ramble, I will cut off this thought here. My point is that I had no idea what to make of this team entering this game, but I do feel like I have a much better idea of what the Rebels are, what they are not and what they could and could not be after watching that loss to a slightly above average LSU team on Saturday. I think this is an eight or nine win team that lacks the depth and front-end talent to challenge for anything of consequence. Ole Miss isn’t a bad team, but I don’t think it is (or was) the 7th-best team in college football as its ranking suggested entering Death Valley.
I find it hard to make an argument in favor of this team I saw on Saturday remaining in a game against Alabama for four quarters, or beating both Texas A&M and Arkansas on the road. I just don’t see it. I don’t see how the necessary changes can be made defensively with the pieces available to shape them into a contending defense. I don’t think Ole Miss is explosive enough offensively to overcome its defensive woes — like it did, albeit to a different degree, in 2020. I am also not sure anything I see this coming Saturday in College Station, against a dumpster fire of a Texas A&M program, would change my mind. I do think it will be another telling test of this team, though. The Aggies suck and will be playing its third-string quarterback, but they have a good running back and a talented defense, and the Rebels defense has not proven that it can stop anyone with a pulse from running on them. If you can run the ball, you have a chance in any game. It will be an interesting test for a team that failed its first real road challenge. But, even if Ole Miss wins, I don’t think I will be writing with a drastically different tune next week.
In the bigger picture, this is still a fine place to be
As bleak as this entirely-too-long column has sounded so far, I do think it is worth noting that, despite how bad the loss was, Ole Miss is still a healthy and vibrant program in year three of a coaching staff that resurrected it from irrelevance. Ole Miss is 7-1 entering Halloween weekend and is 3-1 in the SEC. I remember sitting in a press box at Jordan-Hare stadium on October 19th of 2019, watching a moronic, Rich Rod-led offensive scheme do absolutely nothing against an average Auburn team, bored out of mind as I wrote the obituary to that team’s chances of making a bowl game. Things have changed greatly since. I am now just some marketing schmuck and Ole Miss has competent adults running its football program. Despite how deflating the loss was, in a year that feels like a unique opportunity to capitalize on an uncharacteristically average SEC West, Ole Miss is still in fine shape as a football program. It has an outside chance to compile back-to-back double-digit win seasons for the first time since before color TV and integration. It could very well compile 19 wins over two seasons for the first time since, well, I don’t remember. A long time, I assume.
The collective sense of disappointment amongst the Rebels’ fan base is also a pretty poignant example of how quickly expectations have changed. That’s a good thing, but expectations aren’t always met. They also aren’t always rational. Saturday’s loss was an indictment on the 2022 team, but hardly the direction of the program. I’ll do one final segment on the offense, because I have ignored them entirely in this column (for a reason), but if you are looking for a silver lining in the loss, it’s that the quarterback is pretty damn good and someone Ole Miss can build around for at least the next two years. If the Rebels can somehow build a deeper roster between now and the 2023 season, who knows where they will be and what the 2023 team’s ceiling is. And I guess it is worth noting, and almost obligatory, that if Ole Miss does win this Saturday in College Station, it will in all likelihood set up a match up with Alabama in two weeks with the driver’s seat of the SEC West at stake. That is still a factual statement despite it being a silly conversation at this point in time. The overall point is that the program is fine even if the ceiling of this team might have been a bit oversold.
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What about the offense? You ignored them, you clown.
Yes, I did omit discussing the offense for most of this column. It was partially by design. I may be wrong, but I thought the defensive performance was far more damning than anything the offense did on Saturday. That is not to say the offense was without fault. This offense was really good for 12 minutes of the game. The Rebels matriculated the football down the field at will, mostly through the passing game, on their first two drives. After that, well, it wasn’t good.
This offense is really good on script. After a week in which it did virtually nothing in the passing game, Ole Miss successfully aired it out in the first quarter against LSU. On our Wednesday podcast last week, Ryan Buchanan critiqued the play-calling from a passing game perspective in the win over Auburn. While it may have been an unfavorable listen coming off a win that pulled the Rebels to 7-0 on the year, he was kind of right, and to Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr.’s credit, it looked way more potent against LSU — even if the lackluster passing effort against Auburn was a simple byproduct of a successful, run-centric game plan against a vulnerable (Auburn) Tigers defense. Dart hit on some deep throws early in the game. Most of them were quick, simple concepts tailored to Dart’s strengths. Malik Heath and Jonathan Mingo have proved themselves to be perfectly serviceable SEC wide receivers. I would throw Jordan Watkins in that category, too, despite a quiet day against LSU. Ole Miss rode Dart and the receivers to a 17-3 lead, even if it felt like it was built on a house of cards.
After that, the offense was pretty stagnant over the final three quarters as the game spiraled out of control. There are several reasons for this. A lot of it had to do with LSU using its ridiculously talented freshman linebacker, Harold Perkins, as a a pass rusher that owned Ole Miss’ freshmen tackles. Zach Evans missing the game with a knee injury certainly hurt too. Quinshon Judkins shouldered the entirety of the running game responsibility. Ulysses Bentley played sparingly, but was clearly not 100 percent healthy. The drop off from Michael Trigg to Casey Kelly was sorely evident.
The pass blocking wasn’t very good. Dart got hit, a lot. There is also room to critique his pocket presence. He also missed on a couple of deep balls that could’ve changed the complexion of the game. Ole Miss’ propensity to go long stretches without scoring is a mystery worth exploring. I don’t know how or why it happens, but the Rebels chasing the game the entire second half further muddied the waters in terms of pinpointing a diagnosis for the struggles. This offense isn’t perfect by any means, but I thought they showed enough in this game to chalk it up as a far lesser concern than the team’s inability to stop opposing offenses. Tight end is an issue. The offensive line’s consistency (and lack of depth) is an issue too. But I would like to see how the unit fares against a talented Texas A&M defense on the road before declaring them equally complicit in the team’s overall struggles. Let me see what it looks like with Evans playing and how the offensive line looks against another good defensive line before passing long-term judgement. I am also exhausted and out of coherent thoughts about this debacle of a game.
We’ll have more on the Aggies later this week.