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Last week was a collective exhale for Ole Miss. Its win over LSU — a game that had consequences that extended well beyond the 2026 season — was a relief in many ways. It’s a relief that it didn’t have to fight an unwinnable perception battle that Lane Kiffin was the only reason for the program’s success over the last half decade. It was a relief that the chaotic circus that follows Lane Kiffin everywhere he exists (because he’s the ringleader) had finally left town.
Now, the Rebels have nine football games remaining in their regular season. Eight of those nine will be tough tests, with all due respect to Wofford. But they will be normal football games in which nothing else matters except the scoreboard when the game ends.
Saturday’s game at Florida is the first of those remaining eight tests, and it might just be the toughest.
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A look at the Gators
Florida is 3-0 and is coming off a road win at Auburn last week. The Tigers aren’t very good, but it’s harder than ever to win on the road in the SEC. While it’s very early in the season, and they’ve only played one real opponent, the Gators look better than advertised under first year head coach Jon Sumrall.
I believe that Sumrall would’ve been Ole Miss’ next head coach had Kiffin departed the program like a remotely normal human being and allowed the Rebels to conduct a normal search for a head coach (this was intentional, by the way). Sumrall spent one year on staff as the Ole Miss linebackers coach in 2018. I’ve told this story on the podcast before, but I remember covering the team that year. Ole Miss was terrible, but I remember Sumrall coming in to talk to the media after practice one day, and he was wildly impressive. It’s hard to explain, but he just sounded different. It was obvious that he would eventually be a power four head coach, and a good one at that.
Sumrall won immediately in two years at Troy and did the same at Tulane. His current record as a head coach is 46-12 (29-4). He’s a really good football coach. He also put together a really good staff, including offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who he poached from Georgia Tech.
Philo follows Faulkner to The Swamp
Florida quarterback Aaron Philo spent two years backing up Haynes King at Georgia Tech and then followed Faulkner to Gainesville. He won a quarterback battle over Tramell Jones Jr. in preseason camp, though Philo was always considered the favorite to land the job. It became more of a battle because of a late push from Jones.
Philo is a much different player than what you saw with Sam Leavitt last week. Philo doesn’t run very often and isn’t nearly as mobile. He’s also a more accurate thrower than Leavitt is. He doesn’t have the strongest arm but is very accurate on short and intermediate passes and has great pocket awareness. Through three games, he appears to run Faulkner’s offensive scheme at a pretty high level. He’s also got a pretty good stable of pass-catching options to throw to.
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Florida’s offense runs through Baugh
The Gators have one of the best running backs in the country in Jadan Baugh. The junior rushed 220 times for 1,170 yards last season for the Gators. The 15 carries for 61 yards he had against Ole Miss was his third-lowest output of the season, but I struggle to put a ton of stock into that because that was an entirely different Florida team with no head coach that was limping to the finish line.
Baugh is the most important player in this game other than Trinidad Chambliss. He will be a tough assignment for an Ole Miss rush defense that hasn’t been particularly good through three games.
The defense has looked shaky for the Gators
Florida’s defense has looked shaky in the first three games. It allowed 39 points to a bad Auburn offense last week, but some context is required. Those 39 points came on just 373 yards, and 15 of those points were scored in the fourth quarter after the Gators had a three-score lead and the game appeared to be out of reach.
The Gators return five starters from last year’s defense, as well as 17 players who logged 100 ore more snaps, and also added 10 transfers.
Florida, on both sides of the ball, was an interesting program last year because it changed head coaches, but instead of flipping the roster from top to bottom with all new players, Sumrall and his new staff primarily focused on roster retention because of the talent already in the building. Billy Napier wasn’t fired due to do a lack of talent. He was fired for not knowing how to properly utilize it.
It’s hard to tell how good or bad the Gators defense is because they’ve only played one real game. It appears to me that the secondary is the weakest length, and that the biggest advantage Ole Miss will have in this game is Chambliss and the Rebel receivers preying on the secondary. That’s particularly important given the fact that Kewan Lacy is injured. I would be very surprised if Lacy played in this game.
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Five things to watch: Ole Miss vs Florida
This is a really interesting game for a number of reasons. The line on this game has befuddled people all week. Florida is anywhere from a 2 ½ to a 3 ½ point favorite over the Rebels. On the surface, it’s odd to see the No. 4 team in the country as an underdog against a team who just entered the top 25 this week. I would argue that this is evidence that preseason rankings are useless and skew people’s thinking.
It’s also evidence that in this unlimited transfer era of college football, it’s nearly impossible to get a feel for how good or bad teams are in the first few weeks of the season because every team has 25-60 new players. There’s very little continuity. I think even Las Vegas struggles with this to an extent.
I am not surprised to see Ole Miss as an underdog in this game. As great as last week’s win was, I still don’t know what this team is. The defense looked better last week, but still allowed 172 yards rushing. The pass defense looked better, but how much of that was due to Leavitt being an inaccurate quarterback? Ole Miss has the best quarterback in the sport, but hasn’t really run the ball effectively this season, largely due to Lacy being injured. I think this team can beat any one in the country, but what’s their floor? I don’t know, at least not yet.
This is the most important game of Ole Miss’ season as it pertains to the consequences of the 2026 season (not all the other nonsense that came with LSU last week). Even in the preseason, I viewed this one as the proverbial swing game. If Ole Miss can escape Gainesville with a win and enter the bye week 4-0, I would feel comfortable declaring the Rebels as favorites to make the College Football Playoff. Why? look at the three remaining road games left: Texas, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma. If Ole Miss even just went 1-2 in those games and won their home games, they’d be 10-2 and likely in the Playoff. A 2-1 mark in those games looks way more realistic now with how bad Oklahoma has looked, which would give the Rebels more margin for error.
A loss on Saturday doesn’t kill the Rebels by any means, but it leaves a much more challenging and narrow path to the Playoff. The outlook of the season depending on the result of this game has a wider variance than any other on the schedule, in my opinion.
This is a tough task for Ole Miss in one of the toughest places to play in college football, with a team that’s playing with confidence under a first year head coach, playing in front of a fanbase ready to believe their program is championship-caliber again. It’ll be one hell of an atmosphere and football game. Here are five things I will be thinking about at kickoff.
1. Can the Rebels contain Baugh?
As I said earlier, he is the most important player in this game. The Ole Miss rush defense has been suspect this year while Baugh has been tremendous. And while Florida’s offense has shown the ability to play fast this season, I imagine their strategy this week will be to control the pace of this game through Baugh and the running game, keeping No. 6 in white, the most dangerous player in college football, on the sideline for as much of the game as possible.
If Ole Miss can contain Baugh, it puts more weight on Philo’s shoulders. If there’s been one consistent aspect of the Rebels defense this year, it’s the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Philo isn’t as mobile as Leavitt and prefers not to run.
Neutralizing Baugh and the Florida running game will have a trickle down effect on other aspects of this game.
2. Is the Ole Miss secondary fixed?
The secondary had its best performance of the season last week against LSU after two weeks of alarming coverage busts and communication errors. The performance coincided with the return of starting corner Antonio Kite — who started 12 games for the Rebels in 2025 and was injured early on in the Louisville game — and the season debut of Florida transfer safety Sharif Denson.
“(Denson) came out of spring as our guy, our bell cow back there,” Pete Golding said. “He was going into Louisville as a starter before the high ankle sprain.”
Denson’s return coincided with Edwin Joseph moving from safety to corner, and Jaylon Braxton moving from corner to safety.
“Edwin is probably the most talented player we have back there,” Golding said. “He’s new to the system. A position (corner) near the sideline that we can minimize some of the teaching checks and adjustments. Braxton played safety in this system last year… I thought it was a good flip.”
Was Denson the missing cog that makes the machine operate properly? Saturday will be telling. Philo is a capable quarterback and Florida has a plethora of talented receivers. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not the secondary can back-up last week’s performance.
3. Can Ole Miss run the football?
As I mentioned earlier, I would be pretty surprised if Lacy played in this game. I could be wrong. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time, and for Lacy’s sake, I hope I am, but I doubt he plays. What then for the Ole Miss rushing attack? the Rebels are going to have to have some semblance of a running game. They cannot solely rely on Chambliss to be superman for four quarters. The margin for error with that style of play is too thin.
J.T. Lindsey played pretty well in Lacy’s absence last week. We haven’t seen much from Makai Frazier this year due to an injury. Frazier looks to be back healthy and ready for this game.
The coaching staff talked throughout the offseason about lessening Lacy’s workload after a year in which Lacy ran the ball more times than any running back in the country. The staff talked about how much it liked the depth in the running back room behind Lacy. I think this is the game in which that theory will be tested. The inability to run the ball puts even more on Chambliss’ plate, and there’s already a lot on it. I am very curious to see if Ole Miss can run the football effectively in this game.
4. Was last week an arrival for Traylon Ray?
Ray was the hero of last week’s win over LSU. He caught seven passes for 115 yards and a touchdown. Ray is a great story. He transferred in from West Virginia last season as a receiver. He was moved to corner due to injuries in the secondary. He liked being at Ole Miss and wanted to come back for another year, but hated playing corner.
“Going into the offseason, he’s like,’ Coach, look, man, I would love to come back. I love this place. But I hate corner. I want to play receiver. I’m a receiver. Y’all signed me from West Virginia to play receiver,’” Golding recalled.
John David Baker liked Ray as a receiver, and so he made the switch back.
He was invaluable in the win last week. Was that a one-off? Or is he emerging as the second receiver behind Deuce Alexander that this offense needs? It’s worth noting that Caleb Odom has been awesome for the Rebels so far this year and is the second most viable threat behind Alexander, but Odom is a tight end. When looking at strictly receivers, Ray is an interesting piece of the receiving corps and I am curious to see if another productive game is in store for him.
5. How do the Rebels handle adversity?
Aside from trailing Louisville for parts of two quarters, the Rebels haven’t spent much time playing from behind this season. Ole Miss never trailed against LSU. This is the first true road game for this team, and it’s one hell of an environment test at that. The Swamp is probably the second-toughest place to play in the SEC behind Death Valley. It’ll be a sold out crowd against a confident team with a first-year head coach that has injected some juice into the program and fanbase. Ole Miss caught a bit of a break with this game being a day game, but it’ll be a raucous atmosphere.
How do the Rebels handle it? Chambliss is the best quarterback in the country who seemingly never blinks no matter the score or situation. But it’ll be the first true road environment for this 2026 Ole Miss team, and I’m curious to see how the Rebels handle it, particularly if they get behind early on in the game.
It should be a great game. Thanks for reading. We will have more coverage on Sunday.