Five things to watch against Auburn
Can the Rebels move to 7-0 for just the second time in a generation?
Ole Miss has a chance to move to 7-0 for just the second time in the last 70 years if it can handle an Auburn team that’s having a disastrous year, has no good option at quarterback and unsuccessfully tried to oust its coach via a coup eight months ago. Here’s a little more on Auburn and five things I will be looking for tomorrow.
Who is Auburn?
The Tigers cannot throw the football down the field consistently. An injury to starter T.J. Finely and backup candidate (Texas A&M transfer) Zach Calzada has left the signal-calling duties to redshirt freshman Robby Ashford. If that name sounds familiar to you, it’s because it is. Ashford is a Hoover, Alabama native and was originally committed to Ole Miss. He made his pledge to the Rebels in June of 2019, before de-committing in December of that year after Matt Luke was fired and Lane Kiffin was hired (I remember at the time learning that this was very much a mutual thing at best, and Ole Miss dropping him at worst, rather than him simply de-committing). Ashford ended up at Oregon, partially due to fired Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead accepting the offensive coordinator position there under then head coach Mario Cristobal. He spent two seasons in Eugene before transferring back closer to home at Auburn after Cristobal took the Miami job.
Ashford is a great athlete and an efficient runner with good vision. The knock on him as a prospect is and has always been his accuracy throwing the football. For reference, Ashford boasts a 48 percent completion percentage over four games (three starts) in which he’s seen extensive action since the Finley injury. While the accuracy concerns have proven to be valid, he’s hardly in an optimal situation. His offensive line is abysmal, the scheme makes little sense and he’s not being helped much by his receivers. In the Tigers’ last two games, Ashford has thrown the ball 38 times in each. So much for easing a young quarterback into the SEC.
Auburn has one of the most talented backs in the SEC in Tank Bigsby, but he’s fallen victim to the putrid play of the offensive line in front of him. Bigsby rushed for 1,099 yards last season and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. In a COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, he ran for nearly 900 and averaged over six yards per carry. In three SEC games this season, his average sits at 2.6 yards per attempt. Woof.
The Tigers’ defense ranks 10th in the league in yards allowed per game at 359 yards per game. The unit is not devoid of talent, but has suffered a couple of injuries on the defensive line and is on the field a lot due to the ineptitude of the offense. Auburn is 11th in the SEC in rushing yards allowed per game at 164 per contest. The secondary has been middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed at 196 per game. The Tigers lost a key edge guy Eku Leota for the season due to an injury suffered in the LSU game.
Ole Miss is better than Auburn in nearly every phase of the game. This is a fledgling and vulnerable team. While I am not sure how much more we will learn about just how good the Rebels are this week, but handling Auburn without much trouble will serve as some form of confirmation of many think what this team could be.
Five things to watch
A simple one to start is whether Bigsby and the Auburn rushing attack has any success against the Rebels. Opponents have had some success running on this Ole Miss defense at times this year, particularly with interior runs. If Auburn is going to have any chance in this game, it is going to have to sustain drives via the ground game, and if that ends up being the case, it is more of an indictment on this defense than it is a sign of Auburn figuring things out. If Ole Miss is progressing toward being a good run-stopping team, it will allow the Tigers very little from guard-to-guard in interior the running game.
Will Ole Miss have another 100-yard game at receiver? Yes, this is an arbitrary stat that doesn’t mean a ton on the surface, but as this passing game has shown gradual improvement, the Rebels have had a receiver go over 100 yards in each of their last two games. Jonathan Mingo tore up the record books last week in Nashville and Malik Heath caught six passes for 100 yards in the win over Kentucky. This receiving corps is showing flashes of being pretty good on the outside and, at least from an eye-test perspective, the chemistry between Dart and this unit is improving. Auburn’s secondary will provide a fair test. How well will the Rebels fare in their first game without Michael Trigg as an option? Jordan Watkins has played well the last two games and there was at least a Jaylon Robinson sighting last week at Vandy. Wha does the next chapter look like for this new collection of pass catchers?
Does Dart make one of those cringe decisions again? He’s shown so much good in the first half of the season and his talent and upside are plainly obvious. But can he avoid making a decision that makes the entire stadium shout ‘no’ in unison. I’ve often joked that Lane Kiffin talks about these handful of Dart decisions in a similar tone as he would after Juice peed on his carpet. After Dart’s brutal interception at the end of the first half of the Georgia Tech game, Kiffin said something to the effect of (paraphrasing slightly) “Well, he did it again. We didn’t want him to do it again.” When he did the same in the season opener against Troy, Kiffin remarked after the game. “Those throws don’t work in this league. He knows that.We’ve told him that.” It’s humorous, in a way. It’s like he is scolding a puppy.
This isn’t meant to be a heavy critique of Dart. He’s played really good football for Ole Miss so far this year, for the most part, particularly for a 19-year-old in his first full season as a starter in the toughest division in the sport. But those one or two reckless heaves per game is going to cost the Rebels a game at some point. I doubt it is this week, if it happens at all, but it will eventually decide the outcome of a game, and that is why it is worth monitoring.
Does Ole Miss get more creative in terms of how it uses its running backs in the passing game? I think this would be easier to predict if Ulysses Bentley were healthy. He caught 41 passes the previous two seasons at SMU and is seemingly the most proven pass-catcher of the group. But with Trigg out, I am curious if Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. toy with putting Evans in the slot or feature him out of the backfield in the short passing game. I have no clue if that is something he is capable of or not. Same goes for Judkins. It is just a thought as the Rebels enter this game down a soldier in the receiving corps.
What does the offensive line look like? Silly question, in some senses. I figure that if everyone is healthy it will be Williams, Broeker, Warren, Acker, James. Kiffin is vague and tight-lipped regarding injuries, but I have to believe some of the tinkering on the interior of the offensive line isn’t just injury-related. James going to guard in favor of a freshman right tackle in Micah Pettus (in an effort to replace an injured Warren against Kentucky, and then in place of Acker, for whatever reason, last week) is evidence of that. I think that the coaching staff is still trying to find the best combination of their best five guys. It’s not something I thought would be in doubt entering the season, but here they sit. Oh, and the snapping needs to be better.
Enjoy the game. We will be back with more on Monday. Be sure to check out all of our wonderful sponsors below who make all of this possible.
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