Can Ole Miss win the Lincoln Regional?
a look at Ole Miss Baseball's postseason chances, pitching matchups and more
The Ole Miss Rebels are headed to Lincoln, Nebraska as a two-seed in the Lincoln Regional hosted by the Nebraska Cornhuskers. How did Ole Miss get here? And what are its chances of getting through this regional? Let’s take a look.
Ole Miss was a win away from hosting a regional
Based on the field the NCAA Tournament selection committee released on Monday, and more specifically the 16 host sites it released on Sunday night, I am fairly convinced that Ole Miss came up one SEC win short of hosting a regional in Oxford. The Rebels compiled a 36-21 (15-15) record. They finished the regular season with a 16 RPI.
Fourteen of the top 16 RPI teams earned regional host spots. The two exceptions? USC and Ole Miss, both of whom, in my opinion, had fatal flaws in the eyes of the committee. USC’s fatal flaw was that it was 1-11 in Q1 games. Ole Miss’ fatal flaw was that it was 15-17 in SEC play in the eyes of the selection committee (the Governor’s Cup + the Tuesday loss to Missouri at the SEC Tournament in Hoover). I think if the Rebels had finished the regular season 16-14 in SEC play, they’d be a host. Because at 16-14 they wouldn’t have played the walking RPI bomb that is Mizzou on Tuesday in Hoover, and whether they won or lost to their hypothetical first opponent in Hoover not-named Mizzou, likely wouldn’t have mattered.
That’s not solely my opinion. The committee told us as much through its actions. Take Arkansas as an example. The Razorbacks went 17-13 in SEC play this year — in most years, that mark alone is good enough to lock any SEC team in as a host, and likely a top-eight national seed. But Arkansas lost five Q3 and Q4 games that hurt its RPI. The Razorbacks entered the SEC Tournament with an RPI in the mid 20s. They won three games in Hoover to reach the SEC Tournament Championship game, bringing their SEC win total to 20. None of it mattered in the eyes of the committee. Their RPI finished at 21 and that apparently wasn’t good enough to host, as the committee seemingly awarded the last two host spots to Mississippi State and West Virginia (yes, I know Kansas is the No. 15 seed but I don’t think that was ever in doubt).
Point being, had Ole Miss won one more SEC game and finished 16-14 in league play, I think there is baseball played in Oxford this weekend. I think the Rebels’ performance in Hoover wouldn’t have mattered. There was a world in which Ole Miss could’ve hosted with a 15-15 record, but losing to Mizzou — a program that does not try to compete in baseball — on a Tuesday in Hoover before the clock struck noon, removed any possibility of that happening.
So, now the Rebels are a two seed in the Lincoln Regional. What is to be made of their draw and what are their odds to make it out of that regional? Let’s take a look.
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Nebraska hosts for the first time since 18 years
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are hosting a regional for the first time since 2008. Head coach Will Bolt, a Nebraska alum, has done a fine job with the program in his six years there. Nebraska’s baseball program had a pretty good run of success in the early 2000s. It made the College World Series in 2001, 2002 and 2005. Bolt was a player on the former two Omaha appearances. It appears the Huskers play in a pretty nice ballpark for a Big Ten program. They’ve had a great year and have seemingly maximized a talented and top-heavy but thin pitching staff, paired with an offense that led the Big Ten in average, hits and OPS. Home run numbers are always a bit of a misnomer with Midwest schools considering the weather and wind for 2/3 of the season is unpredictable and mostly unforgiving.
Speaking of wind, one note I discovered from talking to Nebraska beat writer Michael Bruntz on my podcast earlier this week is that Haymarket park can play like two different ballparks depending on the direction of the wind. If it blows out of the north or the west — which he says is rare this time of year — it will play more favorably as a hitter’s park. If it blows out of the south, which is more likely, it can play larger and more cavernous. That seems significant for an Ole Miss team that heavily relies on driving the ball out of the ballpark. So, wake up tomorrow and check the wind patterns in Lincoln, Nebraska if you want to feel like a true die hard fan.
Arizona State presents a fair challenge for Ole Miss
Ole Miss’ opponent on Friday, the No. 3 seed in the Lincoln Regional, is Arizona State. The Sun Devils went 37-19 and 19-11 in Big 12 play. I imagine Arizona State feels a little under-seeded and figured it would be a No. 2 seed in a regional. The Sun Devils have a first-round arm anchoring their rotation and were the best offense in the Big 12 this season, led by one of the best (leadoff) hitters in college baseball in Landon Hairston.
Hairston was named the Big 12 player of the year. In Big 12 play alone, he hit .392 with a 1.368 OPS with 15 home runs and 42 RBIs. The sophomore boasted a ridiculous .392/.875/1.368 slash line in league play. He’s the real deal.
It is interesting that Arizona State has a soon-to-be first-round draft pick, Cole Carlon (more on him in a second), heading up its staff and the conference player of the year, Hairston, in its lineup, and are still a No. 3 seed this regional.
The Sun Devils finished the regular season with a 44 RPI. They were 7-9 in Q1 games. Four Q4 losses hurt them badly. Arizona State played four SEC opponents this year. It split a two-game midweek series with Oklahoma and then lost to Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Tennessee in one weekend in an early-season tournament in Arlington, Texas at Globe Life Field.
Ole Miss is a better baseball team than Arizona State, but what’s unique about the regional round is that the Rebels aren’t aiming to win a series over the Sun Devils, they’re trying to win a single game — and let’s face it, the loser of this game has almost no shot to win this regional.
The best version of ASU features a left-hander named Cole Carlon, who will be a millionaire come July 11 when the MLB Draft arrives. The Rebels are up against a tough, but fitting and fair test.
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What you’ll see from Cole Carlon
Carlon offers a two-pitch mix: a fastball that lives in the upper 90s and has touched 100-plus and a wipeout slider that is probably one of the most effective pitches in the sport. According to Baseball America, Carlon’s slider generates a 57 percent whiff rate, and he throws it nearly 50 percent of the time. That’s as devastating of a pitch as you’ll see in college baseball.
Carlon is going to be a tough matchup for the Rebels. With that said, looking at Carlon’s game logs, he faced three ranked opponents this year and completed five innings once — which was in the Big 12 Tournament against West Virginia. He went 4.2 against Mississippi State in Arlington and allowed 3 runs on two hits with seven strikeouts and two walks, went 4.1 against West Virginia in March, allowing 3runs on 8 hits seven strikeouts and a walk, and then saw the Mountaineers again last week in the conference tournament and went 5.1, allowing a run on 5hits with 6 strikeouts and a walk. He’s a really good arm, but he’s not Paul Skenes. This is not an impossible riddle for Ole Miss to solve.
It’s also worth noting that Carlon was pulled from his start in the Sun Devils’ regular season finale series against Houston due to feeling “achy” and local reports later attributed the quick hook to dead arm. Carlon threw 79 pitches a few days later against WVU in the Big 12 Tournament, so I suppose there is no cause for concern there, but I wonder if it affects his longevity at all. He’s thrown more than 100 pitches five times this season and just once since April 17.
I think this is a perfectly fair test for Ole Miss because, as good as Carlon is, he doesn’t seem to get a ton of value off of his high-velo fastball. I’m not going to bullshit you and pretend I’ve watched a ton of Arizona State Baseball before this week in preparation for creating content for this regional, but after looking into it, I would figure his fastball is not as effective as the raw velo data would suggest. This Ole Miss lineup, for all of its flaws, hasn’t struggled with velocity. So, I see this going one of two ways:
Ole Miss sees Carlon’s fastball pretty well, hits 3-4 home runs, backed by a pretty good Hunter Elliott start and wins this crucial regional opener something like 6-3.
The Rebels don’t see his fastball well, look foolish on his elite slider, strikeout 19 times and lose 2-1 after leaving a small village on the basepaths.
Of course, neither of these outcomes could happen, I am just providing my opinion here. But I think a mostly two-pitch guy with a high-velocity fastball and a wrecking ball of a slider is a perfect litmus test for an Ole Miss offense that is entirely too dependent on hitting the baseball over the fence, and has looked elite at certain points of the season and totally incompetent at other points.
I am truly fascinated by this Carlon matchup.
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Elliott to start game one
As of this writing on Thursday evening, Ole Miss has announced that Hunter Elliott will start against Arizona State on Friday night. This is not really shocking to me, though I understand, and in some ways, agree with, the idea to start someone else (Taylor Rabe).
I think this is the right decision. Hunter Elliott won a national championship for Ole Miss four short years ago. He’s the most decorated and experienced pitcher on the roster, despite not being the best pitcher in the rotation this season. Though I generally roll my eyes at this type of analysis, it’s valid to say this: he is the alpha and heartbeat of this team. Not handing him the baseball in this game would just simply emit an unnecessarily odd vibe. He’s the veteran, rugged bulldog. Give him the ball and dare him to lose in the postseason.
I do understand the arguments to the contrary. Taylor Rabe has been the best starter on the Ole Miss pitching staff. In his last two starts, Rabe has pitched 12 innings (six in each), struck out 27 hitters and walked one. He’s coming off a one-hit, 13 strikeout gem at Alabama. The 5 runs Rabe has allowed in his last two starts all came in one inning, against a rugged Texas A&M offense in an outing that was otherwise as dominant as any Ole Miss starting pitcher has delivered in the last three years. And he followed it up with arguably an even better one in Tuscaloosa seven days later.
All other factors stripped away, he’s Ole Miss best shot to win one single baseball game. But Ole Miss has to win a regional, not just one baseball game. And while I understand the (probably more statistically-sound) arguments and theories as to why Rabe should pitch in game one, this simple fact remains: if you lose game one of a regional, you have to then go 4-1 to win that regional. If you lose game two of a regional after winning game one, you still have to go 4-1 in totality to win that regional — the point is this: if Rabe wins game one and Elliott sucks in game two, you’re still in a pretty similar position than if the opposite had happened. I suppose the main difference is that if Ole Miss loses game one — like most other teams in this tournament — its likely screwed. Winning game one I suppose prolongs hope, but the goal is to 2-0 by any means necessary, because I don’t think this thin bullpen has the ability to come out of the loser’s bracket and back end this regional, whether they win game one or not.
And, on the flipside, if Elliott spins a gem and Ole Miss beats Arizona State tomorrow night, is there another two-seed in this field that would feel as good as Ole Miss would with Rabe ready in game two and Cade Townsend waiting in game three if the Rebels win again? I don’t think so. Starting Elliott is the correct decision. If he’s not good enough to give Ole Miss a chance to beat Arizona State, the Rebels were never winning this regional anyway.
A crazy hypothesis of sorts: what to do when Rabe leaves game two?
As I look further into this regional and Ole Miss’ chances to come out of it (which I think are pretty good), I wonder about the hypothetical scenarios that would allow them to do so. One that’s particularly interesting to me is this: let’s say Ole Miss beats Arizona State and wins game one. Then, Rabe is really good and the Rebels lead Nebraska 2-1 in the sixth inning of game two — so Ole Miss is 12 outs away from taking control of the Lincoln Regional and being the overwhelming favorite to win it.
What is Ole Miss’ plan after Rabe? Obviously, the answer to that question is largely shaped by what happened in the Arizona State game. I think it’s reasonable to assume that if the Rebels beat the Sun Devils, one of (and likely both) Hudson Calhoun and Walker Hooks were required to seal the victory. Let’s just assume they both were. In this aforementioned scenario above: what does Ole Miss do if Rabe exits in a tie game or with a lead? Do you go to either Calhoun or Hooks again for the second time in as many days? Do you bank on J.P. Robertson being good? One of those two avenues is likely what Ole Miss will do.
But I’ll offer you a third presented by esteemed podcast co-host Collin Brister: does Ole Miss dare go to Cade Townsend and just figure it out on Sunday assuming he does the job and the Rebels are 2-0? I doubt this happens, but it’s an interesting theory mostly because it’s been glaringly obvious all season that Ole Miss is one bullpen arm short from being a really good-to-great pitching staff. The Rebels spent much of this regular season trying to figure out how to cover 27 innings in a weekend with their rotation + Calhoun, Hooks and Robertson when needed. And they often found themselves stretched too thin.
It’s why Ole Miss pitched Calhoun and Hooks at Arkansas in game two despite having a sizeable lead. Granted, Baum-Walker Stadium was playing like a launchpad that day and I understood and agreed with the decision, but the choice to bring Calhoun into a 7-2 game with 11 outs left to acquire, and then Hooks in a 9-3 game with 5 outs needed, showed a lack of trust in anyone else in the Rebels bullpen to cement a victory.
Anyway, I do wonder what happens if Ole Miss finds themselves leading a winner’s bracket game on Saturday evening and Calhoun and Hooks have already pitched once. For the record, I do not believe Ole Miss would go to Townsend, I was just floating out the theory because.. well why not? And if they did, and it worked, what would then happen Sunday? My guess is Will Libbert would get the baseball with a chance to close out the regional — Libbert is what makes this winding theory that you’ve just wasted two minutes of your life reading a more coherent point: I don’t think Ole Miss can win a regional, super regional or make the College World Series without Libbert contributing to the team.
He’s a left-handed pitcher with an upper 90s fastball, a pretty good slider and a decent changeup. From a sheer aesthetics standpoint, if you watch Libbert pitch, it makes zero sense that he’s not an upper-tier SEC arm. But he’s not. His struggles, coupled with a few injuries have put the pitching staff in a tough spot. If Libbert performed well enough to remain in the rotation, Taylor Rabe isn’t a starter and is a high-leverage reliever. Imagine how differently you’d feel about this pitching staff if Rabe was a relief option in addition to Calhoun, Robertson and Hooks?
Point being, this bullpen is an arm short, and think the most likely person to shoulder the burden of alleviating this shortcoming for Ole Miss is Will Libbert, whether it be in long relief, as a starter in the long-winded scenario I just outlined or even as a starter in a loser’s bracket game to keep Ole Miss’ season alive.
We’ll see what happens.
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Closing notes from the Lincoln Regional
The only real newsworthy thing from the last few days that you should know entering this Lincoln regional is that Nebraska has elected to throw its ace, Carson Jasa, against No 4. seed South Dakota State. This is pretty surprising. I assumed the Huskers would hold him for a winner’s bracket game against either Ole Miss or Arizona State. Jasa is a 6-foot-7 right-hander with an upper 90s fastball, decent secondary stuff and has stepped up for the Huskers in a major way filling a needed void in their rotation. He earned all Big 10 honors. He’s struggled when his command goes awry.
No disrespect to South Dakota State, but there are different types of four seeds. There are teams like Murray State (ouch, sorry for bringing that up), or the PAC 12 Champion four-seed Utah that Ole Miss drew in 2016 that beat the Rebels that led to their early exit from Ole Miss’ home regional, and then there are teams like the Jackrabbits — who are only here because they won their conference tournament. South Dakota State went 12-15 in a six-team league and won the league tournament. They have almost no chance of beating Nebraska on Friday. So, why throw Jasa?
Here’s one theory: entering the season, Nebraska’s ace was supposed to be junior right-hander Ty Horn. The Huskers moved Horn from the rotation to a high-leverage bullpen role in late April, only to move him back to a starting role later in the year. I have no clue who Nebraska would throw against Ole Miss if it were to beat Arizona State. While I think it’s stupid for Nebraska to burn Jasa against a four seed, my guess is they are comfortable throwing a veteran in Horn in game two. The Huskers have an all-conference closer in J’Shawn Unger. I figure the idea behind throwing Jasa in game one is that Nebraska will win going away without any key bullpen arms being used and that the Huskers feel pretty good entering a winner’s bracket game with Horn and Unger ready to rip.
I could be completely wrong about that, and I think it’s silly Jasa is going to pitch against South Dakota State, but that’s my best guess as to why the Huskers elected to do that.
Final thoughts
Do I think Ole Miss can win this regional? Yes.
Do I think at its best, Ole Miss is the best team in this regional? Also yes
Would I bet my life, or any amount of money at all on the Rebels winning this regional? Absolutely not.
You all have watched the same team I’ve watched all year. It’s a maddening group that is not really an enjoyable watch. It’s kind of baffling that a team with a rotation this strong, on paper at least, and an offense with as much firepower as it has, is not playing in its own ballpark this weekend. This team has shown flashes of brilliance and filled in the gaps with mediocrity and ineptitude. These Rebels are capable of beating any team in the country on a given day, and are also capable of losing in uncompetitive fashion.
Which version of this Ole Miss team surfaces this weekend under the brightest spotlight? And for how many games? I am fascinated to find out.