Can Ole Miss meet the moment?
The Hattiesburg Super Regional will be the fairest of tests for this rejuvenated group
We’ve got a new podcast out with Collin Brister previewing the Hattiesburg Super Regional including pitching matchups, picks and more. You can check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got much of the same to discuss today.
We’ve reached of the moment of consequence
The way the entire 2022 season was viewed from the start was through the lens of the postseason. Where would Ole Miss play its postseason baseball? How easy would the path be? What would this team would do once it got there? After losing in the Super Regional round in back-to-back years, could this supposed offensive juggernaut in an SEC devoid of top-end pitching be the team that broke through for Bianco’s second Omaha trip in over two decades?
For Bianco, an Omaha trip, or damn close to it, felt like a requirement to keep his job. That’s not solely due to past postseason failure, but also in part due to interviewing for the LSU head coaching job in a Birmingham hotel room less than two weeks after his team fell short in a Super Regional for the second consecutive year and for fifth time in six tries since he’s been head coach. Bianco is 1-8 in games to get to Omaha. The postseason disappointment, coupled with the LSU’s interest in Bianco and how he handled the pursuit of the job made this particular version of the hot seat feel different. An offense that led the SEC in most statistical categories returned almost intact. Aside from some starting pitching questions, there was little excuse for being anywhere other than where this team is right now: sitting two wins away from Omaha. Only this time, converting the opportunity felt critical.
Ole Miss’ path to this point was one no one envisioned. Most expected postseason baseball at Swayze Field. That expectation was quelled by early April. This team went 5-10 in SEC play in its own ballpark. The Rebels once sat at 7-14 league play and needed a 7-2 finish over the final three weekend just to get into the tournament by the skin of their teeth (an if we are being honest, a favor from their rival Athletic Director). The pitching predictably struggled early in the season, but surprisingly became the strength as the offense inexplicably sputtered and held the team back.
Ole Miss traveled to Coral Gables last week wearing the profile of a typical underachieving three seed primed to quietly culminate a disappointing season. It left appearing to have finally acquired the traits that created the lofty preseason expectations. With the exception of a few fleeting moments in the regular season, the Rebels finally looked like the team everyone thought they’d be. Ole Miss tore through the Coral Gables regional, leaning on a dominant bullpen performance, two quality starts and, if nothing else, an erratic but opportunistic offense. Now, because of that, this entire summation, the epic disappointment that was the regular season, missed opportunities and lethargic performances, matters very little now. Perhaps the way in which all of it still looms large is where this Super Regional is, or isn’t, being played (Oxford).
If this rejuvenated group can find a way to win two more games, all of that will be rendered completely moot. It will be a tall test, but Ole Miss sits with the very same opportunity everyone expected it to have in the second week of June. What do the Rebels do with it?
Southern Miss scouting report
Many of you may remember Southern Miss from its dangerous offense that nearly found a way to win the 2021 Oxford Regional. Things are different this year. This Golden Eagles team is built around its pitching staff. Southern Miss led Conference USA in basically every statistical category on the mound. Don’t let the quality of competition fool you — this is the best starting rotation Ole Miss will have seen this year outside of Tennessee. The Golden Eagles boast three high-velocity arms that somewhat fit the profile of what has given this Ole Miss offense trouble this year. The fortunate part for the Rebels is that all three throw with their right hand. Southern Miss has good bullpen depth, plays great defense behind its pitching and has a more than capable offense. On paper, it isn’t the greatest match up for Ole Miss, but expecting a large competitive advantage in a Super Regional round is foolish to begin with.
The USM rotation:
Saturday: Hurston Waldrep
Sunday: Tanner Hall
Monday (if necessary): Hunter Riggins
What stands out here initially? Southern Miss is holding its ace, Tanner Hall, an extra day. This is presumably because Hall pitched eight innings on Friday night in a win over Army to open the regional and then came back to start the winner-take-all game against LSU on Monday. He threw 32 pitches against the Tigers. I was mildly surprised by this given that this regional is a Saturday-Sunday-Monday one instead of Friday-Saturday-Sunday, but I suppose it is a smart move.
Hall is in an interesting story. If you’ll remember back to the 2021 Oxford Regional. Ole Miss lost to Southern Miss in the Sunday night game that forced a decisive game seven. If you remember anything about that game, the Rebels fell behind early and then only mustered one hit over the final five innings of the game against a plucky freshman Golden Eagles reliever with a terrific changeup and slider that gave Ole Miss fits. Fans were frustrated as to how that could happen against a bullpen C-USA arm. That pitcher? Tanner Hall.
He began the year as the team’s midweek starter, but as Opening Day starter Ben Ethridge faltered during non-conference play and Hall dominated Mississippi State and a ranked Tulane team in a pair of midweek bouts, head coach Scott Berry made Hall the Friday night guy to start conference play and never looked back. Hall won the Ferris Award given to the most outstanding player in Mississippi. He’s struck out 140 batters this year and walked just 13. He makes hitters work and gives them very little. His velocity is in the low 90s. Hall doesn’t overwhelm with velocity but instead torments hitters with a great changeup and a good breaking ball. He is their bona fide ace and is a huge reason why this team is in the position its in.
As for game one, Waldrep has a fastball that can touch 98 and stays at 95-96 with a good breaking ball. He’s got pretty good numbers as well. Waldrep isn’t as strikeout-heavy as Hall and is a little more walk-prone, but will be another tough test. He was actually Southern Miss’ Sunday guy for most of the conference season, but threw second in the C-USA Tournament and Berry stuck with him for the winner’s bracket game against LSU in the regional. The Golden Eagles lost that game, but it was hardly due to Waldrep, who threw 6.2 innings of two-run ball with 11 strikeouts against a great Tigers offense.
Riggins had hopes to be Southern Miss’ Friday night guy in the preseason, but settled in as a dependable Saturday starter for the Golden Eagles. He’s a Delta State transfer that sits in the low 90s with his fastball with a slider, curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands well. This is a veteran pitcher that knows how to tactfully pitch. If this gets to a game three, USM will have an advantage on the mound in terms of starting pitching.
The USM lineup
The Golden Eagles definitely are not as potent as the offense that showed up in Oxford last June and scared the hell out of the 12,000 gathered at Swayze Field, but they are perfectly capable. They ranked in the top five of the league in most statistical categories. The Golden Eagles hit for average pretty well, walk at a decent clip and do not strikeout often.
Christopher Sargent leads the team with 21 home runs. He hit 12 of those in league play. Will McGillis hit 11 of his 16 in C-USA play. Dustin Dickerson is a pretty useful leadoff man and seems to be the only real running threat on the team. Reece Ewing is another tough hitter who makes the offense go. Southern Miss was rolling and ranked No. 5 in the country when Ewing broke a bone in his hand. He missed nine games and the team lost five of those nine. Ewing posted a team best 1.134 OPS in conference play and might be their best overall hitter.
This is a good offense. If the Ole Miss pitching staff performs well, they won’t be overmatched and the Rebels will have a great chance to win this regional.
Ole Miss announced its rotation
Mike Bianco announced his Super Regional rotation. With the stability the Ole Miss rotation has displayed over the last nine weeks, why is this news you ask? Well, because of who wasn’t announced. The Rebels will go DeLucia, Hunter Elliott, TBA.
So, if this does get to a decisive third game, Ole Miss is undecided on who it will pitch. I think what this really means is that there is serious hesitancy to simply hand the baseball to Derek Diamond with the season on the line. In my opinion, you cannot do it. Diamond’s inability to make it through the lineup more than one time, coupled with Bianco’s infatuation with trying to jam that square peg into a round hole and squeeze one more out of a player incapable of producing it, I think the team would be better off starting a Jack Washburn or Jon Gaddis. Southern Miss’ has worse numbers against left-handed pitching. That is something to keep in mind when watching this weekend. Can Ole Miss make it through the first two games without using the left-handed Gaddis? I think so, but to what extent will they try to avoid it? You cannot play for tomorrow in the Super Regional because tomorrows don’t really exist. But I have to imagine one of Washburn or Gaddis will be available for a third game and I think that is a better option than Derek Diamond.
Three final thoughts thoughts to ponder
With the way Southern Miss set up its rotation, the Rebels had better win game one. Hall isn’t unbeatable by any measure, but does Ole Miss really want to face the proposition of keeping its season alive against the Golden Eagles’ ace who has had a storybook season? The best version of Ole Miss has surfaced with Dylan DeLucia on the mound. The Rebels would do well to capitalize on that with the opposing ace absent on the other side.
To me, this series is going to hinge on the Ole Miss offense. I think the pitching staff will give the Rebels more than enough to keep them in games with a great chance to win this series. This is an offense that has struggled to hit good pitching this year. As I said earlier, this is probably the second best rotation they will have seen to this point. This is where the rubber meets the proverbial road for this lineup in terms of the way its performed for much of this season. How good is this group? There will be no faking it this weekend.
I probably sounds like a broken record, and this is far from some profound statement, but defense is going to be crucial for Ole Miss. The Rebels have played much better defense over the last 15 games of the season and that continuing will be a requirement for them to advance this weekend. Southern Miss isn’t going to beat itself in the field and with the way it pitches, Ole Miss cannot afford to gift them two or three unearned runs throughout the course of the weekend. That will be a recipe for disaster.
Final thought: the fairest of tests
In a way, I think this is the fairest of tests to determine whether this team is worthy of a trip to the College World Series. To Bianco’s credit, he’s figured out a way to craft a competitive pitching staff, as he most always does. It’s more than competitive, it’s the strength of the team. But therein lies the problem and the challenge, too. I think this weekend will fall on the shoulders of this offense. What does it do with two quality starting pitchers? Relying on the pitching staff to bail them out (like the 2-1 Miami win that put them in this position in the first place ) isn’t likely to play out favorably again. There was no world where this team was going to make the College World Series without this offense being good or even great, this is their moment to prove themselves, as surprising as it is that there is still much left to prove. The Rebels won’t advance past this weekend without the two good offensive performances.
Prediction: I don’t think this is a great matchup for Ole Miss because of the pitching staff Southern Miss has, but I do think this will be the best pitching staff the Golden Eagles have faced. I also think that the best version of this Rebels lineup is probably, outside of LSU, one of the toughest USM has faced. I also think, oddly enough, the pressure is on the Golden Eagles. Ole Miss is an underachieving three seed trying to rectify a woeful regular season. Southern Miss is trying to cash in on arguably the greatest season in school history with an Omaha trip in front of its home fans. You tell me who will be gripping the baseball bat tighter this weekend.
This is more gut than logic, but I think Ole Miss has found something wins this series. I somewhat hyperbolically predicated Ole Miss in two games on the podcast. That was also a little bit of tongue-in-cheek in reference to how this entire season has made no sense and how repeatedly wrong I have been. So, I won’t hold myself to a specific game number, but I think the Rebels wins this series. Call it a homer pick if you wish, but if you’ve ready anything I have written about this team, you’d feel silly in doing so. Part of me also believes Mike Bianco will somehow be coaching at Ole Miss longer than many of us live, but maybe I am just scarred from the man perpetually being annoyed by my presence for half a decade.
Enjoy your weekends and pour whatever it is you are drinking neat. You will probably need it.
On the horizon
Reaction pod when the series ends
All sorts of writing reaction in the newsletter
Some golf content as a pair of Mississippians qualified for next week’s U.S. Open at Brookline.
That’s all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Tell your friends to join in on the fun by smashing the subscribe button below. It is free.