At 7-0, both questions and lofty expectations remain for Ole Miss
The Auburn win underscored both the flaws and the strengths that make the Rebels must-see TV over the final five games.
In a lot of ways, Ole Miss’ win over a friskier than expected Auburn team on Saturday was a fitting end to what was really the culmination of the first half of the 2022 season, even if simple math disagrees. Yes, obviously the Rebels technically played the first game of the second half of their season on Saturday (the 7th of a 12-game regular season slate), but the lens through which we have all viewed this season, created by this unique schedule, this game felt like culmination of part one of however this team’s story will end up being written, with a final, five-chapter part two looming over the coming weeks.
Back in the spring or summer, or whenever your mind gravitated back toward Ole Miss Football, what did you think when you took your first peek at the 2022 schedule? It was likely something similar this:
“Oh, wow. Ole Miss could start 7-0 if it plays well.”
Followed by “Oh, wow. Ole Miss could start 7-0 and still finish at 7-5.”
I cannot recall a year in which an Ole Miss football schedule was constructed to where the team played all four of its non-conference opponents and its two SEC East foes, followed by playing the entire SEC West over the final six games of the season (with a bye week mixed in). It set up a fascinating project for Lane Kiffin and this staff. Can they take this retooled roster and make it gel into the best version of itself with the bonus time allotted to them by a favorable first-half of the schedule before enduring the gauntlet that is the toughest division in college football? We’re about to find out, and while I don’t think the answer to that question is as cut-and-dry as dry as X number of wins, the heightened expectations bestowed upon this team because of its undefeated record, coupled with the mediocrity littered throughout what is usually a brutal division that earned it the title of the toughest in the sport, has reshaped the conversation into a different question: can the Rebels survive the next five games and come out on the other side with the program’s first ever SEC Western Division title in hand? Again, we are about to find out.
So here Ole Miss sits with the *real* second act of this 2022 season about to begin. The five-game stretch that made you wonder if this team could start 7-0 and… then what? Potentially finish 7-5? 9-3? Back-to-back 10-win campaigns? Before we inquire about the possibilities of how this story will be written, what did the last chapter of act one tell us?
Saturday’s win over Auburn was fitting because it contained fragments of evidence that hint at just how good this team could be and why it could reach heights the program hasn’t seen in a generation. It also contained anecdotal bits of evidence that underscore the flaws of this team that could ultimately be why they won’t reach those lofty aspirations that are still well within their grasp. What does any of that actually mean?
Well, let’s start with the bad.
The run defense has to be better
Ole Miss allowed a benign Auburn offense to run rampant on Saturday, to the tune of 340 yards on the ground at 6.3 yards per rush and 34 points. Tigers running back Tank Bigsby carried the football 20 times for 179 yards and two touchdowns at a clip of roughly nine yards per carry. Bigsby, one of the best running backs in college football, entered the contest averaging 2.6 yards per carry in three SEC games. It’s been nearly impossible to evaluate Bigsby’s 2022 season because his struggles are largely not his fault. Auburn’s offensive line has been horrid this year, leaving him with little space to run. The ESPN broadcast ran a remarkable stat during the game that stated that, against power five opponents this year, Bigsby averaged 0.4 yards before first contact — which means that when he’s been handed the football and gets to the line of scrimmage, he’s got about a foot and a few inches before a defender lands a paw on him. That’s… not good.
You wouldn’t have thought any of that to be the case on Saturday as Bigsby tore through the line of scrimmage and into the second level time and time again. Even if you take out Bigsby’s 50-plus-yard run for a touchdown early in the third quarter, he still averaged over six yards per carry on his other 19 touches. Bigsby’s complimentary piece, running back Jarquez Hunter (a Philadelphia, MS native) carried it ten times for 80 yards. It does not take a math major to declare that to be an average of eight yards per carry. Throw in Ole Miss’ inability to keep contain on fleet-footed quarterback Robby Ashford, it made for a long, frustrating day for the defense. As we wrote on Friday before the game, the Auburn running game provided a fairly good litmus test for the Rebels rush defense. The Tigers had struggled to run on anyone. If the Rebels continued that trend, there was reason to believe things were progressing nicely in that department. They failed the test, in that regard.
What’s significant about this development is that this was thought to be a concern for the defense coming into the season. Despite some newfound defensive line depth and athleticism across the secondary, Ole Miss lost two really good linebackers off last year’s team that were valuable cogs in their run-stopping operation, which was a large component in that 2021 defense’s success in the second half the season. The Rebels are going to face far better offensive lines, better running backs and better quarterbacks in these final five games, and Saturday’s output against Auburn didn’t validate an optimistic outlook as the team dives into a tougher back half of the schedule. I don’t think the proverbial panic button is warranted just yet, but it also didn’t exactly paint a pretty picture as to what could be in store over these final five contests. Think back to last year after the Arkansas win, a game in which Ole Miss survived despite giving up a million yards and 50 points to the Razorbacks. There was that weird 12-hour stretch when people wondered if D.J. Durkin would keep his job. What happened after that? Jake Springer came back, Ole Miss improved dramatically as a unit and the defense ended up carrying the team for the bulk of the rest of the regular season. How likely is that to happen again this year? I have no idea. But this game should serve as a 2021, Arkansas-like fork in the road for this defense and the coaching staff. It has to be better if Ole Miss is going to achieve the things it aspires to. It has to be a lot better.
Tackling was an issue, again.
To compound the aforementioned rush defense woes, the Rebels didn’t tackle well, which has been a recurring issue for this group. This stood out in two ways. The first and most obvious is what happened after Bigsby and Hunter got to the second level. Five and six-yard runs turned into gains of 12 and 13, and sometimes more. It’s difficult to get off the field and force third and longs without actually forcing the opponent to engage in a third down. Ole Miss was pretty good when the down marker showed the number three. The problem is that Auburn only faced six of them in the entire second half. Ole Miss faced 11 by comparison.
The second element was defenders taking poor angles in pursuit of the ball carrier. This was evident in both the running game and short passing concepts Auburn ran. How many times did it look like the Rebels had a play snuffed out, only to allow the runner to turn a negative play into a positive one or a small gain into a larger one? The inability to keep Ashford contained spoke to this as well. A couple of people sitting behind me inquired more than once as to why Ole Miss wasn’t employing a quarterback spy on Ashford, given his speed and struggles to accurately throw the football down the field. I am not about to pretend I know what the defensive calls were, and I know this coaching staff isn’t a collection of morons, so my best guess is that they were in fact running some sort of spy concept in order to keep Ashford from extending plays with his feet, but it did not work. Not having Cedric Johnson certainly hurt the cause. Kiffin casually called him the “best player on the defense” when referring to his absence in the postgame press conference. But if Ole Miss is one injury away from being helpless against running quarterbacks, then the rest of this discussion is moot.
I am not sure what to make of the poor tackling as a whole. Ole Miss has shown at various points in the season that it can be a fast, athletic defense that swarms the football well, but has also struggled in this area at other points. What I do know is that it must be better in this area moving forward — like, as in starting this week. Because LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels will offer a tougher, more potent dosage of this medicine, and the Tigers offensive line — despite banged up for most of the season — is a better, more talented unit than Auburn’s.
Snapping issues cost Ole Miss a drive again
While it wasn’t as prevalent throughout the game as it has been in others this year, a bad snap cost Ole Miss a drive on Saturday. The Rebels had a 3rd-and-2 scenario at midfield on their second drive of the game, looking to break a scoreless tie. I have no clue if Caleb Warren thought the formation was under center or simply fatted one off of a butt cheek, but the ball made it about a fourth of the way to Dart and was loose on the ground before Ole Miss ultimately recovered and had to punt. This wasn’t a pivotal drive in the game, but it morphed a fairly easy third down conversion opportunity into an automatic punt. At some point over these next five games, this issue is going to cost the Rebels more severely than it has so far. Ole Miss is lucky to have been relatively unscathed by this recurring issue. It’s likely why the season stat sheet shows the Rebels having fumbled 14 times this year but have only lost those three. Eventually, the odds are going to catch up to them.
For a team with a young quarterback that has yet to play a true road game as we enter the fourth Saturday in October, it simply cannot afford to be taxed by bad snaps on a game-by-game basis. I have no clue how it gets fixed, but it certainly needs to be rectified quickly.
The passing offense was pedestrian at best
I don’t actually find this to be as big of a concern as others do, but it is worth covering that Ole Miss compiled just 130 yards through the air and completed nine of 19 passing attempts. While I readily admit I could be totally off base with this, I think that Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. knew they could run all over Auburn without much resistance (which they did) and employed a super run-centric game plan in this game. But given that quarterback play and the passing offense was a question mark entering the year, it is certainly notable that the Rebels didn’t do a whole lot through the air in this game — even if they didn’t have to. A week removed from a record-setting performance at Vanderbilt, Jonathan Mingo did not record a catch. Dayton Wade was the only Ole Miss receiver to do so.
A main concern with this offense entering this season was whether Ole Miss could be serviceable enough in the passing game to make opponents respect it enough to not stack the box against what was sure to be a strong rushing attack. I think the Rebels have checked that box through seven games, and I still believe it, even after this performance, but I concede that checked box is etched in pencil and not pen. Far more talented and competent secondaries await this offense. Same goes for pass rushes. I still believe Ole Miss has enough SEC-caliber receivers to be adequate in the passing game, though the loss of tight end Michael Trigg for a couple weeks certainly hurts. But to stay in line with the theme of this column, I don’t know that to be true. We are certainly going to find out over these next five contests.
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Enough with the bad, now with the good.
Rebels boast three 100-yard rushers in the win
As has been the case in all seven games, the running game was absolutely dominant in the win over Auburn. Ole Miss ran for 448 yards on 69 attempts (nice). Quinshon Judkins toted it 25 times for 139 yards and two scores. Zach Evans had 21 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown. Jaxson Dart ran it 14 times for 115 yards. Auburn had no answer for anything Ole Miss did in the running game and it showed.
Beyond the gaudy, surface-level statistics, the creativity in the way Ole Miss runs the football is a beautiful thing to watch. The Rebels started the game with a couple of shotgun tosses to the short side of the field, then later in the game faked it for a play action pass and a run to the other side that resulted in a healthy gain. The quarterback power concept the Rebels ran a few times set up the dump pass play to Zach Evans for a wide open touchdown. Ole Miss ran inside run plays and also stretched the Tigers on the perimeter. Walk-on wide receiver Dayton Wade ran it four times for 63 yards and had an enormous impact on the game. The various ways in which this offense gets different guys the football that are tailored to their strengths is pretty incredible to watch and makes it unsurprising that the running game is the backbone of this offense.
Running the football well gives this team a chance to win against anyone on any field. If the passing game can remain respectable, the Rebels are going to continue to boast one of the most balanced attacks in the sport. As the schedule stiffens and the hostile road environments become more frequent, this will be a pillar of their successful blueprint to win football games on the road. Kiffin has talked a lot about consistency, and a lack thereof, with this team. If there has been one unwavering facet of the 2022 Ole Miss Rebels, it’s how well they run the ball week after week.
The was no ‘oh sh*t’ moment from Dart
We discussed earlier how the opportunities in the passing game were limited in this win over Auburn, but if you want to derive a positive from it, the fact that Jaxson Dart did not make a glaringly poor decision is definitely one to highlight. In each of the six previous games, there had been at least one (and often two or three) moments in which Dart made a reckless choice and threw the football into traffic. The kind of throw that we’ve discussed here before that isn’t so much “what did he see or not see there?” and more so “Why in the world did he even try that?” On Saturday, he took care of the ball and didn’t force anything. You saw a couple of wise throw-aways early in the game when nothing developed. The one interception he threw was hardly his fault. Mingo bobbled a screen pass that quickly resembled a volleyball point more so than it did a football play and ended up into the arms of one of about nine Auburn defenders around the ball.
Dart taking great care of the football and being smart from a decision making standpoint is going to be crucial in this final stretch of the season. The margin of error will be slimmer and a number of coin flip games loom. One ill-advised throw can be the difference between a win and a loss. He’s learned and matured a great deal in a lot of areas in 28 quarters of football. This was another step in that direction.
So, what happens next?
As we outlined above, the Auburn win was a fitting one to close out the favorable portion of the schedule as this team enters a rugged, five-game second act that provides both hope for achieving something the program has never achieved in modern college football, as well as ample opportunity to stumble down the stretch and succumb to the rigors of the SEC West. It was fitting because it contained all of the elements — both good and bad — that provide reason for such hope, as well as reason for doubt. We still don’t really know just how good this team is. The 109th-toughest strength of schedule that the first-half of this 2022 campaign bore hasn’t allowed us to learn that. But we will soon find out whether or not this team is equipped to contend for a division title and much more, or whether the deficiencies are too abundant and simply weren’t exposed against lesser opponents. It’s going to make for a fascinating six weeks.
I mentioned earlier that I thought that wondering whether Kiffin and this staff can mold this retooled roster into the best version of itself in time for the stretch of games that awaits warranted a more complicated answer than simply wins and losses despite the 7-0 start steering the conversation in that direction. Perhaps the better question to ask is this: what is the best version of this team? Rather than asking if they can go 5-0, 4-1 or whatever mark you want to ponder over these final five games. I don’t know what the best version of this team looks like. I think I do. I think it’s a strong running game, a talented quarterback, a capable passing game and a fast, athletic defense that makes opponents sustain drives in order to score on them. But I can’t say I know any of that with any sort of certainty.
In some ways, this weekend’s game will go a long way toward answering both of those questions. LSU is not a great team by any stretch. It has talent on both sides of the ball, but has a revolving door at offensive line, a limited thrower at quarterback and first-year head coach trying to replenish the program’s depth. But they are a more than capable opponent coming off a win on the road at Florida. A win against this version of LSU, in Death Valley, in a primetime CBS game slot, would tell me this Ole Miss team is capable of winning any game left on its schedule — whether that is in College Station, Fayetteville or at home against Alabama. Ole Miss has yet to play a real road game. It has a young quarterback and newcomers scattered across its 22 starting positions on the depth chart. If the Rebels are able to stand up to the challenge on Saturday afternoon, it will at least tell us that this team has the DNA of one that can win an SEC Western Division title.
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Things I like, don’t like
Last week I listed several things I like and don’t like about the team and the season so far. Since I sort of outlined all of that above because of the direction I went with this column, I was hesitant to write this segment again, but I will do it anyway and be a little more creative with it.
Things I like
Unselfishness. Yes, it is cliché and not really tangibly provable, but it really does seem like this is a team of unselfish players who enjoy being around each other. The most public example is Jonathan Mingo, who was talked about a lot last week after his record-setting performance at Vanderbilt.
“I just like him as a kid. He is an awesome leader by example. He never complains. He just works. He’s been through adversity,” Kiffin said. “I remember last year, the passion he had when warming up against Alabama. He was hurt and had no real chance to play, but the tears in his eyes when he couldn’t go.. it’s special. You take a team meeting at a school and ask who loves football, all their hands shoot up. Well, that’s not true. It’s evident in how you work, and he works so hard.”
Kiffin mentioned on Saturday that as the team went into the locker room during the lightning delay, Mingo didn’t have a catch in the game but was talking about how much success he (and the team) were having on the crack back blocks he engaged in.
The examples go beyond Mingo. Wade is a walk-on wide receiver who took a risk transferring from Western Kentucky to come to Ole Miss. Do you think Zach Evans envisioned a true freshman coming in and having as many carries as he does on a game-by-game basis? Jeremy James is playing guard instead of tackle in a year that is paramount for his NFL Draft stock because it’s the best combination of five linemen the team has. Mason Brooks transferred here to be the left tackle for one season and improve his NFL Draft stock. It hasn’t worked out — like at all. But look who is standing up on the sideline provoking the crowd on important third downs. It’s the large, blonde-haired bearded fellow wearing No. 75. A large part of this staff’s recruiting philosophy is getting to know the players beyond what they are as football players, and I genuinely believe they’ve assembled a group of good kids who like one another and have bought into something bigger than themselves, as silly and pollyanna as that may sound. It’s the core nature of football as a sport.
Paratroopers. There is something uniquely American about dudes jumping out of aircrafts and parachuting into a stadium of half-drunk people waiting to watch a game. Are there safer ways to christen the start of a football game? Probably. But safety is for nerds. More of that, please.
Ole Miss appears to have found its best five on the offensive line and is sticking with it. Eli Acker ended up being the odd man out, it seems, and this combination isn’t exactly what anyone thought it would be — boasting two freshmen tackles, what was thought to be a lynchpin transfer portal guy not playing at all and two former tackles playing guard — but the fact that they have settled on these five guys is a good thing, partially because they do have experienced depth behind the starting five guys.
Dayton Wade. I’ll write more about him in the coming weeks. But what a joy of a personality this guy is. He basically came to Ole Miss because his buddy Jahcour Pearson (who transferred from Western Kentucky last year to Ole Miss) told him that the place was awesome, his skillset would be maximized and that he needed to drop everything and come to Mississippi. His first college touchdown was the score on Saturday. That’s quite the gamble and it has paid off for him. Watch this interview and then see if you’re in a better mood afterward.
Things I don’t like
This is mostly directed at television broadcasters, but also some media people too. Can we stop with the moronic false narrative that “Well, you know, you think of throwing the ball around the yard with a Lane Kiffin offense, but this team is different. They run the football.” Literally every single place Kiffin has been, his teams have run the football with great success. Ole Miss has led the SEC in rushing both years Kiffin has been here and is well on its way to doing it the third consecutive year. No iteration of any Lane Kiffin offense has ever relentlessly aired the ball out in the absence of a running game. It is not a unique talking point and isn’t remotely true. Frankly, it serves as a litmus test as to whether or not you watch the sport you’re employed to cover. Rant over.
Injuries. Yes, that’s vague at its surface. But that is part of what I dislike about the nature of college sports and particularly how it pertains to this team. Kiffin referenced last week that his team is a bit banged up. How banged up? Your guess is as good as mine. Cedric Johnson didn’t play last Saturday. Did you know he was hurt? I didn’t either. Apparently, Jaydin Williams has battled through an injury or two and Dart isn’t 100 percent, according to Kiffin. It’s been publicly known Khari Coleman has been dealing with an injury for a couple of weeks. Who the hell knows how long Ulysses Bentley is out. It sounds as if this team is a little more injured than it might seem at surface level. Looking at the larger picture, it is sort of annoying that major contributors for Ole Miss can just not run out onto the field to start a game and no one has any clue what the deal is until that point. It’s not a complaint about Kiffin or this staff in how they handle injuries. I get why they are mum on that front. It’s the nature of the sport. It just makes it a hell of a lot harder to opine on and prognosticate things when you have no idea the state of the team from a health standpoint. There’s no fix and I have no solution. It is just a weirdly annoying aspect of this crazy ass sport.
The fact that the only receiver who caught a football was Wade. Ole Miss didn’t have many opportunities in the passing game on Saturday. Whether or not that was by design, we will never know. But the way the game was called put Dart in a lot of obvious passing situations. That’s tough on a young quarterback. It’s a lot easier to complete a five-yard out on 1st and 10, or a play action pass on 2nd and three when the defense doesn’t really know whether a run or pass is coming. There will be a moment in which Dart has to win a game with his arm in order for this team to remain in the mix for a division title. That’s a lot to place on a 19-year-old quarterback’s shoulders. It’s even harder when he is predominantly throwing on obvious passing downs. It’s even harder to ask that of him on the road. It would seem beneficial to build up his confidence a bit early in games with quick, easy completions on non-obvious passing downs. Ole Miss did not do that on Saturday.
Lightning delays. That was a bummer, particular at that point in the game. This generation is so soft. I remember when the threat of being electrocuted used to be a tool to build character. Times have changed.
We will have more later in the week.
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