An Ole Miss team pushed to the brink
As each loss mounts, the bigger picture comes more into focus as the short-term struggles fade into irrelevancy
We’ve got a new podcast out with Collin Brister discussing Ole Miss’ crushing series loss to South Carolina, how the bigger picture regarding the program’s future is becoming more clear and where this embattled team goes from here. You can check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got the exact same thing to get to.
Poor offense, head-scratching decisions lead to series loss at USC
Ole Miss lost two of three on the road to a bad South Carolina team over the weekend in a series that was all but a must-win proposition. Series like this are often a mirror image of the state of the quality of a team. A good team goes on the road, handles a battered but competent South Carolina pitching staff and finds a way to win two games, particularly after pummeling the Gamecocks on Thursday night in game one. The Rebels didn’t do that, and in failing to do so, proved to be exactly what they are — a bad baseball team.
Ole Miss doesn’t do anything well enough to win consistently in the Southeastern Conference. The Tennessee series exposed its inadequate starting pitching. The Kentucky series, end result aside, exposed a fraudulent offense that doesn’t draw walks, strikes out far too often and doesn’t move the baseball consistently enough to earn the title of being a good lineup. The Alabama and South Carolina series were a mixture of both. Ole Miss didn’t pitch it well enough in the first two games to beat Alabama and the offense no-showed a crucial series finale. Against the Gamecocks, Ole Miss didn’t hit well enough to win in the final two games, and the pitching crumbled down the stretch of a rubber game in which it felt as if the season hung in the balance.
Poor managerial decisions worked to the team’s detriment in both series.
The problems are varied and the dysfunction is layered, and it has led to a rather stunning fall from grace. Ole Miss left the Auburn series poised to become the No. 1 ranked team in the sport. Since then, the Rebels are 6-10 and are two heroic Dylan DeLucia performances away from being 1-11 in SEC play during that span. We can and will discuss what went wrong, how it happened and where the Rebels go from here, but as the losses pile up and time ticks away on the 2022 season, the larger picture comes more into focus as the short-term struggles fade toward irrelevancy.
DeLucia was magnificent
It’s a shame Dylan DeLucia’s performance wasn’t a lead storyline for this weekend. Since we here at Rippee Writes have the editorial control to do what we want, and by that I mean I just write whatever is in my brain in no particular order, we’ll let him lead our content item. He went 7.2 innings and allowed one earned run, scattered six hits, struck out four and walked one. It was a 118-pitch herculean effort that preserved the majority of the bullpen for the final two games to put Ole Miss in an optimal position that it would ultimately squander in a series that was all but a must-win scenario.
We’ll get to this more a little later on, and hindsight is 2020, but I cannot for the life of me see how anyone can watch what DeLucia has done in his last two outings as a starter and conclude that the next opponent’s lefty/righty splits is a determining factor as to whether he’s earned the right to take the baseball again as the game one starter. I don’t know why he didn’t start against Alabama. Maybe playing the matchup game is the right decision and it wouldn’t have mattered in that game one loss to the Crimson Tide. I just know that Mississippi State could be batting 1.000 against right-handed starters and DeLucia is still getting the ball next Friday if I were paid to make such decisions.
Even beyond that, on a team that hasn’t always shown that it throws its best punch when pushed to the brink, DeLucia’s last two outings have come when Ole Miss needed it most. Both came on the heels of being swept at home and stopped conference losing streaks. Looking back now, both starts he put together are now so vital to upholding this team’s bleak postseason chances, we’re likely writing an entirely different column right now if he doesn’t perform the way he did on both occasions. Twice DeLucia shouldered the weight of a struggling ballclub and kept them afloat. Hell, in the Kentucky game, Ole Miss nearly squandered that outing because it couldn’t muster more than two runs against a Wildcats starter with a WHIP number that looked more like an ERA.
I am just some clown with a newsletter, but I would live and die with that kid on the mound on Friday nights until proven otherwise.
College Basketball season may be winding down, but NASCAR is in full swing, NBA playoffs are a couple weeks away and MLB Opening Day is this week. Go checkout Skybox sports to guide you through your sports wagering adventure. Skybox is the ONLY way to profit in the long run. They are the best in the industry. Use the promo code “rippee” for 20 percent off any picks package you purchase.
If you’re into sports betting, you need to use these guys You’re wasting money if you don’t
Fraudulent offense dooms Rebels in final two games
People bristle at the word fraudulent. When used in the context of sports, it’s often perceived as an insult when, in reality, all it means is that something isn’t what it presents itself to be. That’s exactly what this Ole Miss lineup is, to a tee. Before the season, it was hailed as one of the best in college baseball, and rightfully so. The same guys that compose this lineup terrorized better SEC pitching in 2021. Seriously, everyone returned outside of light-hitting Cael Baker. But, for whatever reason — and there are many theories that have merit — it’s nowhere near the same. The home run numbers fooled us all for a while, but this offense is toothless. That reality once again became clear in how the Rebels swung it in 16 of the final 18 innings in Columbia.
Ole Miss struck out 26 times against the Gamecocks and drew seven walks. Four of those walks came from Jacob Gonzalez in the first game. Reagan Burfurd drew two. That means every other hitter outside of those two walked a combined one time in the series. That dog will not hunt. In 15 SEC games, this lineup has struck out 165 times and drawn 48 walks. That is an astounding number. The Rebels lead the SEC in strikeouts in SEC play and are second to last in walks drawn. By comparison, the same lineup (conference games only) ranked 4th in walks and struck out the the third fewest times in 2021.
Outside of Tim Elko, no one has a batting average above .278 in conference play. Six regular starters are hitting at or below .233. Those same six have an on-base percentage below .320. Outside of Elko, Alderman and Gonzalez, the Rebels are getting virtually no production.
Speaking of Elko, he is having an absolutely ridiculous season. Anytime I hear someone mention his strikeout numbers (and it’s a valid gripe for the team as a whole), I roll my eyes. In 15 SEC games, he has hit eight home runs with 23 RBI and boasts a 1.293 OPS. That is an absurd clip. He is batting .407 with an .837 slugging percentage. Where would this team be without Tim Elko? Ten feet under is a proper answer.
As far as why all of this is the case, I truly don’t know. I have to believe the struggles on the mound have played into it and cause the lineup to press. The ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio would give credence to that. But the pitching staff gave Ole Miss a chance in all three games against South Carolina and was more than good enough to win each game. Even Derek Diamond pitched well. He got kind of screwed on that wind-aided three-run home run in the bottom of the third inning in game two. But if I told you Ole Miss was down 3-1 at the end of three innings and South Carolina was only going to score one more run, wouldn’t you have liked the Rebels’ chances to win?
In that second game, Peyton Chatagnier hit a leadoff single in the fifth inning. From that point on, no one else reached base in the game besides Tim Elko, who singled and hit a solo home run. To South Carolina starter Noah Hall’s everlasting credit, he’s had four really good weekends in a row in which he’s seen the 6th inning, but he set a career high by going 7.2 innings against this lineup. With the way this team is constructed, no one should be setting career highs against this lineup. But at least one opposing starter has set a career high in outing length against Ole Miss in all five SEC series.
That, seems, well, suboptimal.
I don’t know what the fix is. I continue to find it hard to believe the same offense that carried the team for parts of 2021 will continue to be this bad, but as each weekend passes, I also find myself more skeptical it will turn around. If the latter is the case, this team will not play meaningful baseball in the month of June. It may not play meaningful baseball in the month of May.
Game management in the finale was mind-numbing
It’s become almost a cliché to declare a game or sequence a microcosm of a particular team or season, but the 9-8 loss in the finale to the Gamecocks felt like a microcosm of this dysfunctional season. Ole Miss didn’t have a hit through the first four innings. It fell victim to misfortunate when Jack Washburn left the game after five batters with a hamstring injury. The first run crossed because of an error. Ole Miss fell into a hole, climbed back, had two terrible sequences with runners on base in crucial points of the game and the bullpen failed to keep the deficit at arm’s length. The Rebels fought back again, tied the game and lost in part due to a pair of miffing managerial decisions, a bad pitch and a passed ball. If I had to show someone a single game that encapsulated the 2022 season, it would be this one. And unfortunately for Ole Miss, it felt like one it could ill-afford to lose.
I am not really sure where to start, so I will bounce around. Once Ole Miss failed to win that second game — despite it being right there for the taking — I figured the finale would probably spell disaster. South Carolina pitched backwards and held its preseason All-SEC starter Will Sanders for the finale. Sanders stifled Ole Miss to the tune of one hit thru five innings. To the Rebels’ credit, they chase him the third time through the order, but time wasn’t on their side at that point. Ole Miss clawed back into the game with a run in the 5th and 6th innings to cut the deficit to 3-2.
From this point, I will just go sequence by sequence:
Bianco elected to pull Jack Doughtery, who was dealing, for Brandon Johnson to begin the bottom of the 6th. Dougherty had struck out four of his last five hitters and compiled a 1-2-3 5th inning. Ok, fine. I don’t totally get it, but I can see how he may not have trusted Dougherty a second time through the order and wanted to go to his biggest gun — which make no mistake about it, recent struggles aside, Johnson is the biggest gun.
He gave up a two-run home run to extend Carolina’s lead to 5-2, but I feel like I would be playing the result to crush him for that.
Ole Miss immediately got two runs back via three singles in the top of the 7th (the team moved the baseball!). The Rebels had runners on 1st and 2nd with one out, trailing 5-4, and their two best hitters due up. It’s at this point I thought Ole Miss was going to take control of this game. Elko and Gonzalez each struck out. What a tough break. Again, I can’t crush either of them for this specific sequence given their production levels compared to the rest of the lineup… but come on.
Johnson recorded a scoreless bottom half of the 7th.
A Kevin Graham double followed by an Alderman single put men at the corners with no one out to start the top of the 8th. Still trailing 5-4, at this point, I am fairly convinced Ole Miss was at least going to tie this game. In fact, my mind thought 'can they find a way to plate four and give Johnson some wiggle room?’.
T.J. McCants struck out in a completely noncompetitive at bat epitomized the worst aspects of this offense.
Hayden Leatherwood was due up next. He’d tripled and singled in his previous two at bats. Bianco took the bat out of his hands in favor of Peyton Chatagnier to set up a righty-lefty matchup (USC left-hander Matthew Becker was on the mound). Remember the matchup piece of this. More on that later. I vehemently disagreed with this decision, but I can rationalize it. Chatagnier is less of a threat to strikeout and is less likely to ground into a double play. Naturally, he grounded into a tailormade double play to end the inning. Ole Miss felt snake bit at this juncture.
Bianco pulls Johnson for Josh Mallitz to start the top of the 8th inning after a walk and a line out. I feel hypocritical for this because I have beat the Mallitz drum for three weeks now, but was this really the time to have Mallitz throw his first meaningful innings of the season? Hunter Elliott did not pitch this weekend. Just a reminder. Mallitz hung a breaking ball that hasn’t landed yet on his first pitch. 7-4. The next hitter took him deep to center. 8-4. Ole Miss felt screwed.
This was the most head-scratching decision. Down 8-4 in the 9th inning, after a Burford drew a walk, Bianco pinch-hit Ben Van Cleve for Calvin Harris… for a righty-righty matchup? By using Van Cleve, you’ve now given up the DH spot and retired your only healthy catcher…. all in one move? What the hell was going to happen if the end goal of forcing a bottom of the 9th inning was achieved?? How does that make any sense? It’s indefensible. Van Cleve doubled. Congrats on winning the battle but losing he war.
I’ll tell you what happened next: Ole Miss tied the game, to its everlasting credit. The Rebels showed some toughness. But now, they had to continue to go play baseball… with Kemp Alderman behind the plate. Alderman caught in high school. He has never caught in a college game. Bianco then elected to go with Drew McDaniel (??), who pitched five innings on Tuesday, in the most important half-inning of the season. McDaniel walked the first batter. A sac bunt moved the runner to second. Alderman, who cannot be faulted for this, allowed a past ball to move the man to third and a fly ball produced a sacrifice fly and ended the game for crushing series defeat.
I cannot wrap my brain around the series of decisions that led to this result. Bianco called Alderman his emergency catcher. I am floored by this. By what definition is a kid that caught in high school an emergency catcher other than the fact that he knows how to buckle shin guards? Why pinch hit for the only healthy catcher on the roster? Mind you, Hayden Dunhurst left Friday’s game with a shoulder injury. Why is Knox Loposer not on the travel roster? Both Harris and Dunhurst have dealt with injuries this season. Loposer is a decent SEC catcher. Does Matt Parenteau, or any of the other seldom-used pitchers that travel but don’t get outs, really add more value than carrying a third catcher when both of the two on the travel roster have been banged up this season? Riddle me that.
Why McDaniel in the ninth inning? He threw fiving innings four days prior and has done nothing to show he can be trusted in SEC games. Think about this: Hunter Elliott and Mason Nichols were left unused in favor of a guy who was relegated to the midweek due to a lack of production. Make it make sense. I can’t.
Current Deal: For being a loyal subscriber, show him proof of subscription and you’ll get a 16 oz. prime strip for $20 and a pack of sausage for $5. That’s a hell of a dinner on the grill for 25 bucks. Go check LB’s out. It’s the best place in Mississippi to get meat and Oxford is lucky to have it.
Was this a sign of a panicked man with his job on the the line?
At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I do wonder if Saturday’s late-inning managerial debacle was evidence of a man devoid of answers and panicked to win a game he knew he could ill-afford to lose?
Stay with me on this. If you are a long-time reader or listener, you might remember the Mike Bianco bunting theory I have. For the first 12 or 13 years of Bianco’s tenure at Ole Miss, he subscribed to small ball. It drove forward-thinking fan nuts and appeased traditionalists when it worked. Then, to his credit, Bianco stopped bunting. He evolved. Ole Miss has ranked in the bottom three in in the SEC in sac bunts each of the last four seasons. But at times, often in the season’s most crucial moments, he would revert back to small ball. It was almost like the the former chain smoker who went back to the Marlboro Reds when things got hairy. In a weird way, Bianco bunting over the last five years or so has been a glimpse at his stress level. He rarely did it, but when he did, it seemed like it always came in a moment that really mattered.
Is the matchup thing his new bunting nicotine? He pulled the bat out of a hot Leatherwood’s hands in favor of a guy he benched that day for a lack of production. He went the entire weekend without using (left-hander) Hunter Elliott. Coincidentally, South Carolina’s numbers against right-handed pitching were way worse than against left-handers, albeit a tiny sample size against left-handers. Last weekend, he started Elliott on Friday night over DeLucia because Alabama didn’t hit lefties well. There are more examples, but you get the point.
I think numbers, splits and analytics are a managerial blueprint in baseball in general. To deny their significance is trafficking in ignorance. But in a 56-game college season with a 30-game conference schedule, isn’t context required? That’s a tiny sample size.
I could sit here and second guess the man all day and act as if I know more than him. Bianco has forgotten more baseball than I will ever know. He is a tremendous coach and I will be the first to admit it. But I just wonder if the wrong buttons are being pushed because his anxiety level has spiked and he has reverted back to what he is most comfortable with as a crutch. In a sport dictated by numbers, if there were ever a team that needs the eye test factored into its evaluation, it’s the 2022 Ole Miss Rebels. I wonder how Bianco will adapt, if at all, as this team’s postseason hopes rest on life support.
Ole Miss isn’t 5-10 in SEC play because of Bianco. It is failing because of a lack of production from guys expected to produce. But this team isn’t good enough to overcome suboptimal decision making from its manager, and unfortunately for this embattled group, a managerial blunder worked to the Rebels’ detriment in arguably the most crucial game of the season.
Final, big picture thoughts
Last week, I wrote about this being a make or break series for Ole Miss. While I still think that will end up proving true, — and a 6-9 record at the halfway point is a hell of a lot less daunting than 5-10 with two harrowing road trips at LSU and Arkansas remaining — I will concede that this team is still has a realistic mathematical chance to make the postseason. Can you imagine uttering that sentence a month ago? But here we sit.
With each series loss, the bigger picture regarding the future of this program comes more into focus. We all know where this is heading. There is ample time to discuss hot boards, potential replacements and where the program goes from this catastrophic failure of a season. But until Ole Miss reaches a point at which the math becomes completely unrealistic for it to make the postseason, it feels a bit short-sighted to lean fully into that discussion. The Rebels will need to go 9-6 down the stretch in order to feel good about earning an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.
I know what you are thinking. Does it even really matter? Well, you could argue no, given that Ole Miss has never made it through a road regional in the Bianco era, but earning a bid at least gives this team, this coaching staff and this program one last chance chance to maintain the status quo, stabilize the program and save their jobs — and by that I mean ending the season in Omaha, Nebraska. Failing to even have a seat at the 64-team table will only add to the shame of a season that should’ve never gotten to this point.
Mississippi State rolls into town this coming weekend. It’s Double Decker in Oxford. Swayze Field will be packed, not because of the interest in the baseball program, but because of the staple of an event that baseball games are to Oxford’s biggest spring weekend.
In a way, it’s fitting. The program’s shortcomings have never reflected in attendance. Hell, a season ticket record was set this year, on the heels of a season on which Ole Miss lost its 7th game in eight tries to get to Omaha under Bianco. Not to mention him interviewing for a rival SEC West job two weeks after season’s end. This weekend might be the last time the stands are full in spite of the program’s failures. Should Ole Miss lose two games to a Mississippi State’s that’s had its number for the last half decade, the Rebels’ obituary will be complete at the hands of their most bitter rival.
There is a slim path to the NCAA Tournament. But two losses this weekend will realistically shut that path completely.
What is the path?
My colleague Chase Parham outlined it well.
Quite simply, Ole Miss needs to go 8-7 in the final 15 SEC games to have a chance at earning an at-large bid. In my opinion, the Rebels will need to go 9-6. SEC teams have made the field with a 13-17 conference record before, but I don’t believe the Rebels’ postseason resumé will be strong enough for that to be enough. I think 14-16 is needed to feel good about the team’s chances heading into the SEC Tournament. So, with five series left, the Rebels would need to win four of them.
Good luck.
On the horizon
Midweek newsletter with non-baseball thoughts (I got a little long winded)
Mississippi State series preview
Spring football notes
Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by smashing the subscriber. It is free.