An LSU scout and some thoughts on Corral's health
A closer look at LSU, why Sam Williams has been successful and what to make of Corral's status
Hope everyone is having a good Thursday. We have a new podcast out with The Athletic’s LSU beat writer Brody Miller. We got into his Sunday story on the departure of Ed Orgeron, the current state of the Tigers and where the LSU football program goes from here. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We have lot of football to get to today.
Get to know LSU
This section seems relatively meaningless this week with the entire Orgeron saga unfolding on Sunday, but this LSU team, or at least what’s left of it, did in fact beat a ranked Florida team last week at home.
How’d they do it? Well, the Tigers ran the football well for the first time all year. They tallied 321 yards rushing in the 49-42 victory, largely behind Ty-Davis Price’s 36 carries for 287 yards and three touchdowns. Coming into this game, LSU was horrific running the football, and if you watched its offense this year, you’d often wonder if the Tigers were even trying to run the ball at some points. The offensive line had been so bad that it seemed like first-year offensive coordinator Jake Peetz all but gave up on the idea of running it. For comparison’s sake, these are LSU’s game-by-game rushing totals prior to its win over Florida: 48, 124, 84, 63, 33, 147. The Tigers rushed for 84 yards against Central Michigan and 124 against McNeese State. Even after running wild on Florida, the team’s average yard per rush on the season is 3.8. It’s really mind boggling to see an LSU team that cannot run or play stout defense. Weird times indeed.
So, what does last week mean? Your guess is as good as mine. After the game, Oregon spoke like a man who knew his fate before the team took the field. That much is now blatantly obvious. Maybe the players, who ball all reports couldn’t stand playing for him anymore, rejoiced in his imminent departure by kicking the hell out of Florida? It’s a baffling result. But if the Tigers’ newfound success running the ball is here to stay, that’s not great news for the Rebels.
Mounting injuries
Oregon is gone for a myriad of reasons that all ultimately pointed toward a lack of winning, but in his defense, the Tigers have had the year from hell on the injury front. It began when Quarterback Myles Brennan tripped while walking on a boat dock in the summer and broke his arm and ended his year. The Tigers have since lost star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, arguably the nation’s best defensive back Derek Stingley, defensive back Eli Ricks, linebacker Jarrod Small, defensive end Ali Gaye, defensive tackle Joseph Evans and defensive end Andre Anthony — all are out for the season. Add in the fact that 5-star running back John Emory is academically ineligible and a couple of other guys’ statuses being uncertain, and this team is incredibly beat up. The Tigers were down five defensive starters against Florida.
You’re likely reading this and not feeling a ton of collective sympathy for the team’s injury report given what the Rebels are dealing with, but the scope of LSU’s injuries are pretty wild.
A heavy burden for Max Johnson
The injuries and inability to run the football have made life harder on quarterback Max Johnson. He’s been pretty good at times this year and decent overall. He’s completing 61 percent of his passes and has 20 touchdowns to four interceptions on the season, though he’s only finished with a single-game completion percentage of 60 or better once in SEC play, and that came against Mississippi State. Now that he’s without Boutte, his job has become even more difficult. Last week, he got by going 14-24 for 133 yards because of the way the Tigers ran the ball against Florida, so he hasn’t been tested much without his best target yet.
If Ole Miss fares as well against the run as it did in Knoxville, LSU is going to have a much harder time moving the football consistently. That’s a big ‘if’ but another strong performance is there for the taking for this much-maligned defense if it plays like it did last week.
Ole Miss should win this game. It has much more to play for and has more going in its collective favor. If you’re an Ole Miss fan that harbors ill will against LSU and Ed Orgeron, this game is sitting on a tee for the Rebels to an unpleasant parting gift to the soon-to-be former Tigers head coach. But that also depends on the Rebels’ health.
An uncharacteristically bad defense
LSU was horrific on defense in 2020. Like historically bad. That could be explained away by injuries, opt outs and the Cajun in charge thinking it would be a good idea to allow Bo Pelini to run an SEC defense in the year 2020. Oh, and he apparently hired Pelini without an interview.
This year, the Tigers are bad again, and the explanations as to why aren’t sufficient. That’s partially why Orgeron is soon to be unemployed. Lost in this entire saga are the recruiting misses LSU has had over the last two cycles. Some of that has shown up on the defensive side. Orgeron’s class rankings on signing day looked like a powerhouse program continuing to reload. But the fact of the matter is that LSU has had some poor evaluations that are showing up on the field. It’s not all on defense, but a lot of them are. The Tigers rank in the bottom fourth of the league in virtually all defensive categories. To make matters worse, and I hate using the word quit or accusing kids of not trying, but it really does look like LSU has lacked effort at times this season. Go watch the Kentucky game. The Wildcats pushed the Tigers defense around, and perhaps the strangest part is that it wasn’t really a surprise, but rather the expected outcome.
LSU allows opponents to convert 45 percent of third downs. By comparison, the Ole Miss defense is at a 40 percent clip. The one thing the Tigers have done well is sack the quarterback. They’re tied for second in the SEC in sacks with 21. There’s talent on the defensive line. When healthy, there’s talent all across this defense, on paper at least. That’s what made the struggles so mystifying. The injuries have been crippling, but LSU couldn’t stop UCLA in the season opener when fully healthy.
If Ole Miss can jump out to an early 14-0 lead or something close to it, I don’t like the Tigers’ chances playing from behind. Particularly when everyone is wondering what they have to play for other than pride.
SkyBox had a +4.9 unit weekend on college football and 11.45 unit weekend on NASCAR. That’s +23 units on NASCAR in the last two weeks. What are you doing not utilizing them? Check them out here. They have a picks package for your preferred sport that will fit your price range. You’re missing out by not going to pay them your business. It will pay off in your bank account. Use the promo code “rippee” for 20 percent off any purchase. These guys are the real deal.
Kiffin casts doubt on Corral’s status
Speaking Ole Miss’s health, the Rebels are a pretty banged up team in their own right. Linebacker Austin Keys had surgery this week that ended his season, and a few more guys are rumored to have had the same happen to them. We just don’t know who they are because of Kiffin’s policy on injuries.
That leads me to my point on what he said about Matt Corral on Monday. Kiffin said he doesn’t feel great about Corral’s status for Saturday’s game after Corral was injured late in the game against Tennessee last Saturday night. While I certainly think Corral is less than 100 percent given the 30 carries he endured and the ankle issue he suffered at the end of the game, something about Kiffin voluntarily offering up that his best player might not play — after being completely silent on injuries the entire time he’s been in Oxford — reeks of a bit of gamesmanship to me. I could be wrong. I am really just guessing, but I have ha hard time believing that Corral doesn’t give it a go in some capacity on Saturday afternoon.
Here’s what Corral said about his injury immediately after the game on Saturday: “Yeah, I just rolled up my ankle. It is all good though. It’s just a little stinger. It went dead for a second but I was good after.” I am not a doctor, and things could’ve absolutely change in the 24-36 hours after a game, but that doesn’t sound like a guy who is going to miss Saturday’s game.
Orgeron wasn’t buying it either, apparently.
“We’re expecting him to play, but we’re going to study the second team quarterback, but knowing Matt and knowing Coach Kiffin, he’s kind of throwing me a smoke screen,” Orgeron told reporters on Monday.
With that said, I would feel pretty good about wagering that Corral will not carry the ball 30 times again and might be a bit limited from a mobility standpoint. What’s that mean for Ole Miss? Well, it will have to be better running the football in more traditional ways with its running backs. The Rebels having all three running backs healthy is certainly a sliver lining in their recent rash of injuries. I would imagine the offensive line will fare better at home than they did last week. It seemed like that group had trouble communicating in that loud environment and was a bit rattled. An Arkansas-like performance for the running backs and offensive line would be just what the doctor ordered for the Rebels given the injuries at receiver and Corral being banged up.
I almost feel silly continuing to write about this and suggest it, but hell, I’ll do it one more time: if there were ever a time for a Plumlee package to emerge, Saturday seems like as optimal of a spot as any. Maybe the Rebels can supplement some of what Corral has brought to the running game by using Plumlee’s legs. Don’t mistake this for me advocating for it or thinking it is a good idea to take the football out of the hands of the best quarterback in college football, I am just merely pointing out the possibility of it given the state of the team. If it doesn’t happen Saturday, I think we can all finally put this idea to bed. I am assuming a lot of you have already.
Ole Miss has won games in different ways on offense this year. I am curious to see how Kiffin and Lebby try to win this one and what that looks like.
I was passed a link to ‘Corral For Heisman’ stickers and asked to put them in the newsletter. So, if you’re interested in buying some, here is a link.
Current Deal: For being a loyal subscriber, show him proof of subscription and you’ll get a 16 oz. prime strip for $15 and a pack of sausage for $5. That’s a hell of a dinner on the grill for 20 bucks. Go check him out, it’s the best place in Mississippi to get meat and Oxford is lucky to have it.
Williams credits Joyner for 2021 success
I have tried to shy away from breaking down midweek player media opportunities. There’s usually not a ton there to merit meaningful discussion, and I’d like to think you subscribe to this for something a little different and more thought provoking. With that said, I was struck by Sam Williams thoughts on why he’s been successful this year. Williams ranks second in the SEC in sacks behind only Alabama’s Will Anderson (remember him? He’s a freak, in a good way). Anderson has seven and Williams has six.
Williams is an interesting story. He’s overcome a lot on and off the football field. He didn’t even play football until his senior year in high school. We’ve heard for three years now he has the most raw talent of anyone on defense. This year, it was just a matter of playing more consistently. Williams, though not perfect, has been better in that regard and his talent has shined brighter as a result. He’s credited this coaching staff for motivating him and helping him realize his potential. Williams raved about defensive line coach Randall Joiner and how he’s changed the way Williams watches film. This quote was welling.
“He taught us to watch film from the O-linemen’s feet up. First, you start with the feet. How do they set? How do they move their feet? Are they on their heels or on their toes? That really just sets up your move. If they’re on their heels, you go to a different power move. If they’re on their feet, you go with speed moves because they’re leaners. He taught us different types of offensive linemen. There are risers, clampers, punchers, baiters. It’s so much. I can’t even explain. I’ve got a whole book on it, the different O-linemen and the different pass rush moves to go with those different O-linemen.”
Williams has also matured a lot. You can hear it in how he speaks. He became a father in the offseason, which he’s admitted has changed his perspective on things.
“I look at it now like I have a chance to make sure my son doesn’t have to go through anything that I went through, being homeless and stuff. I have a chance to change that, so why not do it?”
I wrote a story on Williams in 2019 that covered this. He’s a great kid that’s endured a lot.
On the horizon:
I have a special guest on the pod tomorrow. Here’s a hint: he had an interception against LSU in 2003 that is still the loudest I have ever heard Vaught-Hemingway.
We’ll have a preview with Weldon and Greg’s picks on the podcast too
Some final LSU thoughts in tomorrow’s newsletter as well as a look around this week’s slate of games.
That’s all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by hitting subscribe below. It is free. Back with more tomorrow.