After surviving Arkansas, Ole Miss' aspirations remain intact
Rebels skate past Arkansas and enter a well-timed bye week with everything still within reach.
Ole Miss survived a desperate Arkansas team on Saturday in a 27-20 victory.
Now, the Rebels sit at 5-1 entering a well-timed bye week with everything in front of them as far as goals and championship aspirations. What did we learn from the Arkansas game and how does that shape the team’s outlook as it takes a one-week reprieve before embarking on the second half of its 2023 season?
Arkansas’ offense is an absolute mess
The beginning of this segment is not intended to discredit the very good defensive performance from Ole Miss on Saturday, but before we dive into that, I must express how confounding the Arkansas offense was to watch. The Razorbacks entered the 2023 season with a veteran, athletic quarterback in K.J. Jefferson, one of the SEC’s most dynamic running backs in Rocket Sanders, and an offensive line the coaching staff and fans were excited about (at the time).
The offensive line’s incompetence aside, the Razorbacks’ scheme is abhorrent. As I have mentioned multiple times, I am always hesitant to criticize coaches for play-calling and overall scheme-related tactics, mostly because I don’t understand a fraction of what they know about schematics and football in general. I’ve always found that to be an arrogant and usually uninformed criticism. For you accountants out there: what if you had tens of thousands of fans posting on message boards and tweeting about how bad of an accountant you are and how stupid your company was for employing you? Oh, @TaxSeason69 on Twitter (X?) thinks our collections and receivables are way off and that the CFO is a bum who should be fired? Ok, thanks, anonymous internet guy, you are probably right. You get the point.
With that said, my untrained eye left that game wondering what the hell Arkansas was aiming to accomplish and frustrated as to what Razorbacks offensive coordinator Dan Enos has done to Jefferson and Sanders (Sanders is clearly not 100 percent healthy, but the point remains). Last year, under former offensive coordinator Kendall Briles, Jefferson ranked 5th in the SEC in pass yards per game. He was the league’s second most efficient passer, was 2nd in pass yards per attempt and threw the third fewest interceptions. This year, he’s near or at the bottom of the conference in all categories. Did a third year starter all of a sudden become a demonstrably worse player, or is it something else? Like maybe a new (and worse) scheme. I’ve always found Jefferson to be an imperfect quarterback but a dynamic athlete who was a lot of fun to watch play football. I do not feel that way this year.
The statistical implosion is similar for Sanders, but the skewed numbers aren’t worth listing because of how many games he’s missed due to injury. Anyway, an Arkansas gripes column is not what you subscribe for. I just needed to make this point: Sam Pittman hired a coordinator in Enos who is seemingly trying to jam a square peg into a round hole, and it is not visually appeasing to watch, and it’s a shame it’s wasting what should be the best years of Jefferson’s and Sanders’ career.
The Ole Miss defense preyed on the Razorbacks’ weakness
Arkansas’ coaching woes notwithstanding, I thought Ole Miss played a tremendous game on defense — a performance that it ended up needing to survive the Razorbacks. The Rebels hit Arkansas where it hurt. The Razorback offensive line has struggled to block in both the running game and in pass protection all year. Ole Miss allowed 36 total yards rushing. For context, the 36 rushing yards allowed is the lowest output from an Ole Miss defense since allowing zero against Tennessee in 2014. If you’ll remember, that 2014 defense was just fine (the best defense in college football). As bad as it’s been up front for the Hogs, they had mustered at least 135 or more yards on the ground in every game except one entering this context — 42 against Texas A&M, a team with a stout defense loaded with talent.
Ole Miss got fairly consistent pressure on K.J. Jefferson, hurrying him six times and sacking him twice. Jefferson only had two rushes for more than six yards and only one for more than 10 yards, with the latter being a 16-yard scramble to convert a 3rd and 12 to begin the second quarter.
Enos’ inexplicable scheme seemingly featured some slow-mesh plays — a shotgun formation concept in which the quarterback sticks the ball in the running back’s gut, hesitates and then decides whether to hand it off, tuck it, or throw it. A simple way to describe it is an RPO in slow motion (think Wake Forest). I thought the Rebels did a tremendous job of recognizing and disrupting those play calls. I am not going to pretend to be capable of explaining to you how Pete Golding attacked it, but Cole Cubelic did a decent job on the broadcast of saying basically that it appeared that once the Rebels identified a slow-mesh play, linebackers and safeties around the line of scrimmage seemingly had the freedom to charge and attack it at will. There were several examples of John Saunders Jr., Ladarrius Tennison and Suntarine Perkins blowing the play up in the backfield so violently that it looked like they might steal the potential handoff.
Aside from the Rebels’ somewhat puzzling inability to get off the field on third down, particularly early in the game, they didn’t allow a lot. They turned Jefferson over twice, both on interceptions, one early in the game that helped manufacture points for a struggling Ole Miss offense, and then of course the Saunders interception to seal the game.
A week after struggling to contain an incredibly talented LSU offense, the Ole Miss defense embodied the traits of a good defense: it capitalized on poor blocking, an ineffective scheme and effectively shut down the opponent’s attack. Whatever you think of Arkansas and its woes on offense, this was a great sign and a good performance from the Rebels on defense.
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Front seven depth is holding true through three SEC games
Every week at RebelGrove.com, we post individual snap counts. It’s a paid feature of being a subscriber, which you should already be, so I won’t divulge specific numbers. But I think it is worth noting that the Rebels played 69 (nice) defensive snaps on Saturday night, and not a single front-seven player played more than 43 snaps. Only two played 40 or more. If you’re struggling to see the significance of this, it can be explained by the lack of depth last year: Ole Miss didn’t have enough game-ready players to afford the luxury of rotating guys up front. That led to fatigue, and ultimately, lackluster second halves on defense because of it. While the Rebels are far from a juggernaut two-deep, the depth on defense is better this year and I think it will make a difference going forward.
Think about it through this lens: Golding and the coaching staff feel confident enough to play nine defensive linemen at least 15 snaps in an SEC divisional game, and played six linebackers at least that many snaps too. That also doesn’t include the hybrid-ish guys like Tennison, Khari Coleman and, in some packages, Demarko Williams. I don’t pretend to know what any of the latter three’s roles are in a given package or down, but the fact that they are not among the handful of traditional secondary guys in the 50’s and 60’s snap count-wise speaks to the improved depth on the defensive side, at least in my opinion. I am still not positive how good this defense is. I supposed my scientific conclusion through six games is that the defense is definitely not bad (thanks for subscribing for that analysis), and I think the ability to have 18-20 regular contributors, as opposed to 13 or 14 in 2022, will do wonders for this team when it enters the month of November. I also think it has been a factor in this defense having a relatively clean bill of health (knock on wood) through the first half of the season.
Ole Miss is still a ways away from building the amount of depth on the defensive side of the ball that is traditionally associated with regular championship contenders, but Golding and this coaching staff have done a lot of work to better it in a short amount of time and are maximizing the contribution of every player they view as game ready.
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Saturday was a slog for the Ole Miss offense
In Friday’s pre-game newsletter, I pondered the thought that the offense’s performance against LSU was one that might foreshadow things to come, and whether or not it signified a potentially dominant unit finally getting healthy and having all the pieces to the machine operating at full capacity. To be blunt, Saturday’s performance quickly shot that theory down.
A week after Jaxson Dart threw for nearly 400 yards against LSU, the Rebels struggled to throw the football with any consistency against a pedestrian Arkansas secondary. Dart was just 16-25 for 153 yards. The running game, coupled with the defense providing a short field a time or two and playing a pretty fantastic game, ultimately proved to be enough to win, but the performance left much to be desired. Ole Miss ran for 196 yards, but it took 45 carries to do so, at a clip of 4.4 yards per rush. That’s hardly anything to scoff at, but a week after Quinshon Judkins looked like the 2022 version of himself and the running game ran wild on LSU, yardage against Arkansas was far more hard-earned.
There are reasons for the struggle. Dart was injured on the second play of the game on a run to the near side of the field. I don’t know specifically what the injury was, but he was clearly off for the majority of the game. Dart was sacked a season-high five times. I think that had less to do with the offensive line being overwhelmed and more to do with Dart’s lack of mobility. I thought his head-scratching illegal forward pass in the third quarter might have been indicative of his compromised health. On a 2nd and 10 play early in the third quarter, Dart evaded pressure and scrambled to his right. He seemingly had plenty of room to gain positive yardage with his feet, with just one defender (who was not well-positioned to make a play) between Dart and Judkins, who was roughly seven or so yards down field. Dart crossed the line of scrimmage with what appeared to be the intent to run, but checked up and threw it to Judkins after obviously crossing the line of scrimmage. An almost assured positive gain was wiped out by the mistake. As aggressively as Dart plays, I find it hard to believe that the injury didn’t contribute to his decision making — not only on that play, but in general. Such is life in the SEC. It happens.
Ole Miss also lost its best receiver, Tre Harris, in the fourth quarter, with some sort of minor injury. We’ve discussed ad nauseam how different this offense is without Harris. It’s a bit of a wonder that Ole Miss was able to muster such a strong, ultimately game-winning drive with Harris off the field.
Kiffin has since said both Dart and Harris will be “fine” when the Rebels travel to Auburn in a little over a week.
And to be fair to Arkansas, as much as I am guilty of speaking in absolutes about how good or bad an offense, defense or team has shown to be, there is still the element of match-ups, game-to-game schemes, and ultimate randomness to this sport. As much of a struggle as it was for Ole Miss passing the ball, it seemed like Arkansas had a pretty sound plan and was strong in coverage against the Rebels. Kiffin admitted as much after the game.
“That’s a team we’ve struggled with,” Kiffin said. “I think they are better on defense than people give them credit for. They’re long, they’re physical and they’re sticky in coverage. They get up and cover/hold you, and they make it tough.”
I don’t know what to make of the last 12 quarters this Ole Miss offense has played. I think they’re much better (and now healthier) than they showed to be against Alabama. As optimistic as I was after LSU, it would be wildly unfair to expect the Rebels, or any offense, to repeat that type of performance. I also don’t think the unit’s struggles against Arkansas is indicative of what the offense can be. It was just a tough night in a strange spot against an opponent that proved to be a bit of a weird match up.
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(The few) penalties (called) also killed Ole Miss in this game
There is some irony in the fact that Ole Miss, on paper, played its most disciplined game of the season. The Rebels were only tagged for five penalties in this game and it is the first time all season that they were less penalized than their opponent. I don’t think that paints the full picture of how this game was officiated. It was a weird whistle.
That’s not to say Ole Miss was screwed by the officiating in this game. I am not sure how that case can be made when the Rebels bore half the number of accepted infractions as their opponent. But it still wasn’t a well-officiated game. I have no idea what Caden Prieskorn did to head official Ken Williamson and his crew, but he was in the crosshairs all night. Between a ludicrous false start call and a pair of holding penalties (one declined), the 6-foot-6, 250 lb. run-blocking and pass-catching weapon was the target of the men wearing stripes. The accepted penalties on Ole Miss negated gains of eight yards, 41 yards, whatever would’ve happened on the Dart illegal pass snafu, and the bogus pass interference call on Deantre Prince in the first quarter, all seemed to come at fairly important moments in the game in terms of the Rebels finding a collective rhythm.
Watching the game in real time, it felt like a ref show. I was surprised to learn afterward that there were only 15 accepted penalties (10 on Arkansas). Maybe I am just delusional. I still don’t think it was a well-officiated game. I suppose that can be said for the majority of SEC games played each week. I am not a big complainer when it comes to officiating. This may be the first space I have ever given referees in this newsletter’s history. Breaking news: college officiating is bad. It’s a hard job in general. I don’t think bias is a factor as much as incompetence is the overarching reason. But in the case of this game, I think the way the game was officiated thwarted the Ole Miss offense from settling into the game, as strange as that sounds when looking at the total number of penalties.
Ulysses Bentley IV is special
We’ve been on this for a few weeks now, and it’s hardly an earth-shattering revelation if you’ve watched the games, but Ulysses Bentley IV has been awesome and vitally important for Ole Miss. Last year, an early-season hand injury prevented us from seeing who Bentley really is as a running back. When he did return from injury, the running-back rotation was already set, Bentley never really found a role behind or amongst Judkins and Zach Evans (understandably so) and never really made an impact. This year, an injury-free Bentley has shown dynamic speed, great vision and an elusiveness. The speed is real. So is the lateral quickness. He had two runs in the fourth quarter that secured seven points in one instance (the game winning touchdown) and three points on the next drive as he made a defender miss and plunged deep into Arkansas territory.
Bentley is emerging into a beautiful complement to Judkins, and that is honestly probably selling him short. His speed is a weapon in its own right and Ole Miss is better for having it. He played the best quarter of his Ole Miss career. Six of his 13 carries came in the fourth quarter and 48 of his 94 yards occurred in the final 15 minutes. He had (basically) half of Ole Miss’ 102 rushing yards in the fourth quarter.
“I feel like Q(uinshon) is the power back. He runs through the hole and runs people over and does all types of things,” Bentley said. “I feel like I can look through different runs and schemes and be able to win my one-on-one matchups and have a little finesse game.”
Bentley’s transition from SMU to Ole Miss in 2022 wasn’t the easiest. He came in behind fellow transfer Zach Evans, Judkins became a star, Bentley got hurt, and never found a rhythm. But he remained patient and is now blossoming into an asset.
“I am the first to tell you when players make plays, on that touchdown drive, we forget to block a safety and he makes a guy miss, and then makes a guy miss in the hole on the touchdown run,” Kiffin said. “He’s a really cool story of a guy who battled and didn’t always get carries last year, and also got hurt. It is really cool to see guys who show up every day and do things right continually, and then they play really well. Sounds bizarre, but it usually happens like that.”
While far from perfect, Ole Miss showed resilience on offense, again
We danced around this above, but it is worth reiterating that resiliency Ole Miss showed on offense on Saturday. It was a struggle for most of the game. The Rebels had ample opportunity to create separation and put the game away, but were unable. Then, Arkansas scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a 20-17 lead, and presumably put the entire audience’s stomachs in knots. The sputtering offense didn’t flinch. Ole Miss had mustered 13 yards on two drives in the second half to that point. It was without its top receiver, yet found a way, primarily via Judkins, Bentley and the ground attack, to cobble together a 12-play, 75-yard march to regain the lead and ultimately win the game.
While it was far from an ideal offensive night, the Rebels’ ability to win games in different ways is a telling and admirable trait for a team that is not great, but seemingly mature and resilient.
“That’s what you want,” Kiffin said. “You want games like this where you win on defense. We definitely won this on defense... Our guys did a great job.”
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So, now what?
Despite a lack of style points in this contest, Ole Miss enters its bye week at 5-1. The Rebels have a week to rest up before attacking the final six games of their season. Ole Miss is a relatively healthy team, even with the minor injuries to Dart and Harris. All things considered, even as the missed opportunity in Tuscaloosa continues to sting, it is a pretty damn fine place to be at the halfway point of the season. A year ago, Ole Miss was 7-1 and came unglued down the stretch. This team, equipped with more depth, what seems like a tighter chemistry and a greater collective maturity, still has everything to play for and has all of its goals and aspirations within reach.
Yes, Alabama beating Texas A&M puts the Tide in full control of the SEC West. It’s going to be an uphill fight for Ole Miss — and one that is largely outside of its control in terms of the standings. Hypotheticals about running the table and going 11-1 and what that would mean for its playoff chances are wildly premature. As is any conversation about winning the SEC West. Road tests at Auburn and Georgia still loom, as well as a home game against A&M — and, yes, even an Egg Bowl on short rest will be tough, as bad as Mississippi State looks to be.
The point of mentioning all of that is this: Ole Miss will enter the third weekend in October with a puncher’s chance at accomplishing everything it aspired to in the preseason. Only a handful of programs can say the same. It’s there for the taking, and the second half of the 2023 season is sure to be compelling theater.