After a gut punch loss, the most consequential game in program history awaits.
Some thoughts on Ole Miss' loss, the outlook for Thursday and how the Rebels will respond
This won’t be your typical newsletter, as most all of this will be outdated by 3 p.m. on Thursday when Ole Miss takes the field with its season on the line for the first time in this postseason. But I did feel compelled to jot down some quick thoughts and send them to our subscribers as I sit here in the moments after the Rebels’ 3-2 loss to Arkansas.
This will just be a random collection of thoughts and notes that border on rambling, but hey, you’re already here.
Ole Miss’ 3-2 loss to Arkansas was one hell of a baseball game. But if you’re invested in the outcome as a player or fan, I imagine it felt like a gut punch coming out on the wrong side of a contest like that. Neither team will have much time to regroup before Thursday’s first pitch, but the psychological advantage is certainly with Arkansas. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is in slightly better shape on paper, particularly as it pertains to pitching. One of the two will seize their fate. Which will it be?
The Razorbacks were just a little bit better than the Rebels on Wednesday in every facet, and they earned the right to continue their season for another day because of it. Arkansas was slightly better in the field. It didn’t make an error. Jalen Battles kept Justin Bench’s potential game-tying single in the infield in the ninth to limit the damage to one meaningless run and leave the tying run on third base. In contrast, and while neither can be blamed for each individual play, Garrett Wood was unable to corral Cayden Wallace’s rocket shot double down the third-base line in the eighth inning that ultimately turned into to the consequential third Razorback run. After holding Wallace on at second, Jacob Gonzalez wasn’t able to snare Michael Turner’s ground ball to the left side that plated the aforementioned deciding run. Arkansas, who boasted five left-handed bats in its lineup, had better at-bats against Ole Miss lefty John Gaddis than the Rebels did against Razorback left-hander Hagen Smith. Again, Arkansas was just a little bit better and won the game because of it.
Smith was really damn good against the Ole Miss lineup. This offense’s Achilles Heel all season has been a left-hander with a good slider, and that is exactly what Smith offered over and over and over again. The Rebels did very little with it. Ole Miss struck out 13 times on the night. All 13 were swinging. I imagine many of you were frustrated watching them flail at benders that sailed outside the zone. But in order to lay off breaking balls, you have to be able to identify them out of the pitcher’s hands. Ole Miss looked like it couldn’t decipher between slider and fastball. That’s what makes a really good slider. It cost them dearly. Evan Taylor was arguably even better in relief of Smith. Ole Miss didn’t put a runner in scoring position until the ninth inning when Taylor left the game and handed the baseball to right-hander Brady Tygart. The Razorbacks exploited the Rebels’ weakness and deserve a tip of the cap for it.
I described this loss as a gut punch for Ole Miss. As Neal McCready smartly pointed out during my segment on the postgame show, the core force of the gut punch is that the Rebels’ other perceived weakness — their lack of a reliable third starting pitcher — was on display on Wednesday, yet it proved to be a non-issue. John Gaddis passed the test. He gave the Rebels five innings of two-run baseball. Mike Bianco would’ve taken that outcome 11 times out of 10 had it been offered before the game. But Ole Miss was unable to take advantage of it. And while this feels silly to mention at this point because of the consequential nine innings this team faces on Thursday, winning on Wednesday behind Gaddis’ effort would’ve drastically swung the team’s chances in the national championship series. A win would’ve meant Dylan DeLucia would’ve pitched game one of the final on full rest with Hunter Elliott behind him. That’s been an unbeatable combination during this postseason. Now, DeLucia will throw on Thursday to keep the Rebels’ season alive and will only *maybe* be available in a potential Monday game three, on short rest, should Ole Miss advance. That matters a lot. But of course, the more consequential piece of it is that the Rebels squandered the opportunity Gaddis gave them, and now they’ll face elimination for the first time in this postseason. How will they respond?
The other impactful piece of the gut punch was the way the ninth inning played out. Kemp Alderman — the only man with any sustained success at the plate on the night — led off with a single that finally ejected Taylor from the game. An erratic Tygart plunked Peyton Chatagnier and Hayden Dunhurst to load the bases with no outs. Arkansas went to Zack Morris, the same pitcher who couldn’t get out of the first inning on Monday.
Bianco pinch-hit the switch-hitting Garrett Wood for lefty Hayden Leatherwood, who has barely played in the postseason and is hitting .165 versus lefties on the year. Leatherwood got ahead 2-0 in the count but struck out. Left-handed hitting T.J. McCants, who was in the game because of the decision to hit Ben Van Cleve for Calvin Harris in the 7th inning, struck out next. Two lefty-on-lefty match-ups is hardly an optimal scenario. Is it a guarantee that Arkansas would’ve pulled the struggling Tygart if Leatherwood wasn’t already in the on-deck circle? Who knows. Despite his lack of experience, Wood has given this team a plethora of quality at-bats this postseason and has drawn nine walks in eight postseason games. That seems ideal against a pitcher who just hit two batters in a row. Maybe Dave Van Horn was pulling Tygart no matter what. We’ll never know, but the thought is worth pondering. The other thing to remember is that Ole Miss did not have another right-handed bat available outside of Reagan Burford. If Bianco was going to go to a pinch-hitter, a lefty was his only realistic option at that point. We can debate this all day, but ultimately, the Rebels not being able to get two runs across in a bases-loaded, no-outs scenario is pretty tragic no matter which side of the plate the hitter stands on. The ninth inning had to have stung for many.
People were ready to burn Bianco’s jersey at the stake for hitting Van Cleve in place of the red-hot Harris in the 7th inning. While I don’t necessarily agree with the decision, I didn’t really find it to be that egregious. Ole Miss was so bad against Smith and Taylor’s slider — a pitch that is particularly hard for left-handers to hit — that I don’t think Bianco could stomach watching another lefty futilely flail at three more of them. Van Cleve is a right-handed who rarely strikes out. The result sucked and the at-bat was noncompetitive, but the thought process wasn’t some egregious crime to the sport of baseball. (For the record, I would’ve let Harris hit.)
So, now what? Ole Miss faces Arkansas in a win-or-go-home game on Thursday at 3 p.m. It’s best on best from a pitching standpoint. The Rebels will throw ace Dylan DeLucia while the Razorbacks will turn to their ace Connor Noland. It’s the biggest game of this team’s season and the most consequential game in Ole Miss Baseball history. How will the Rebels respond in less than 24 hours? Despite all of its many valid flaws, this team has proven to be pretty resilient throughout this season. I don’t think Ole Miss loses tomorrow because it is shell-shocked or flat. I think the Rebels will respond well, but will they achieve the desired result?
Arkansas holds a little bit of an advantage in the headspace department after a thrilling win to keep their season alive. But I think Ole Miss is set up better from a pitching standpoint. The Razorbacks exhausted nearly all of their left-handed pitching options in this game. And while I think Morris (15 pitches) could throw again if needed, and Taylor (31 pitches) too if things got dire, they won’t be rested, and Smith (90 pitches) is most definitely unavailable for this game. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has Brandon Johnson, Josh Mallitz and Mason Nichols all on full rest. Arkansas needs Noland to be heroic. Ole Miss needs DeLucia to give them a chance. Advantage Rebels.
This offense has been pretty damn strong for five or six weeks now, barring a couple of exceptions. Each time the lineup has struggled over these last six weeks, it’s usually been followed up by a better performance. The pitching match-ups favor this lineup on Thursday more than today. Again, the Rebels are fine on paper.
But these types of games are the ones in which legends are made and legacies are cemented. Ole Miss has been carried by its stars in this postseason, whether it was Elko’s double against Miami, DeLucia and Elliott’s dominant outings in the Super Regional, Kevin Graham going 5-9 in Hattiesburg or Bench’s four-hit night on Monday. Who will step up and meet the moment on Thursday? Ole Miss entered the ninth inning on Wednesday with no one besides Alderman and Chatagnier having a hit. The Rebels didn’t put a runner into scoring position until the ninth inning. Ole Miss needs the heart of its lineup to perform like the stars they are. Can they solve Noland? The Rebels won’t need 15 runs to win tomorrow, but they’ll need more than two. Who emerges to lift this team to a national title birth?
I think Ole Miss wins tomorrow because the offense rebounds from a bad performance and because the Rebels have more options on the mound.
Enjoy the game.
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