As the calendar shifts to the back half of October and teams enter the second halves of their season, you start to see games with pretty direct College Football Playoff stakes. I think Saturday’s game between Ole Miss and Missouri in Oxford fits that exact description.
No, I don’t think the winner of this game is a shoe-in to make the playoff. Far from it. I do think, however, that the loser of this game is pretty much eliminated from making the playoff. Look at the remaining schedules of the two teams after this game.
Missouri: at Arkansas, Texas, at Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma
Ole Miss: at Texas, Auburn, Georgia, at Oklahoma, Wofford, Mississippi State
What stands out to me with these two team’s remaining schedules is that there are three common opponents, although the venues in all three are different. What really stands out are the games against Texas and Georgia. The winner of this game between Ole Miss and Missouri can split those two games and still be in good shape to likely make the playoff. The loser must beat both, barring some kind of crazy luck down the stretch in which a three-loss SEC team gets into the 12-team field.
Is it really that cut-and-dry for each team? Of course not. Ole Miss could lose at Oklahoma, or to Mississippi State, or even to Auburn. That’s very possible. Missouri could lose to Oklahoma, or Kentucky. But if Ole Miss or Missouri lose any of those aforementioned games not named Georgia or Texas — then they likely weren’t playoff-caliber teams worthy of getting in anyway.
The winner of Saturday’s game positions itself for a challenging but realistic push for the College Football Playoff over the final six weeks of the regular season. The loser of this game will be on life support as it pertains to making the 12-team tournament.
It should be a fun one. Let’s take a look at Missouri.
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Former Rebel Austin Simmons leads the Tigers on Offense
Missouri is 5-1 (2-1) and is coming off back-to-back dominant home wins over Florida and Texas A&M. The Tigers’ one blemish to this point is a 31-24 road loss at Mississippi State — a game in which the Tigers led by a touchdown, with the football, in the fourth quarter before the offense sputtered and Kamario Taylor put on a show in the game’s final ten or so minutes.
Missouri is quarterbacked by former Ole Miss signal caller Austin Simmons. He’s had an interesting career path that began as a two-sport athlete in Oxford long before he turned 18 years old.
What happened to Simmons last year at Ole Miss was an unfortunate event. It’s the harsh reality of major college sports that sometimes you just have poor luck. Simmons waited behind Jackson Dart for his chance to be the quarterback at Ole Miss, only to get hurt seven quarters into his first real season of college football and never get back on the field because his backup, Trinidad Chambliss, became arguably the best quarterback in the sport. I won’t pretend to know Simmons very well, but I’ve interviewed him several times and spent a month talking to everyone who has helped shape his path. He seems like an extremely bright, polite kid who handled last year’s situation as well as anyone possibly could. It seems like his approval rating amongst the Ole Miss fanbase is pretty high, as it should be. And though I think Simmons might come back to Vaught-Hemingway with a bit of chip on his shoulder (obviously looking to beat Ole Miss as badly as possible because that’s how this works), I don’t think this is some return chapter that is fueled by animus.
Simmons has played well this season. He’s completed 64 percent of his passes and has thrown 14 touchdowns with one interception. In two road games, he’s gone 42-68 for 587 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Simmons is taking good care of the football. His one interception was tipped at the line of scrimmage. His arm talent is undeniable and he’s got several experienced, plus-level receivers to throw to, including former Rebel Cayden Lee.
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A different kind of Missouri offense
Simmons’ talent, as well as the other personnel around him this year, has sparked a philosophical shift offensively for head coach Eli Drinkwitz. In his six previous seasons with the Tigers, Drinkwitz offenses have been run-first. Drinkwitz is an elite recruiter of running backs. Last year, he landed the best running back in the sport in Ahmad Hardy — who has yet to play this season as he continues to recover from a gunshot wound to his upper leg that he suffered at a concert on May 10 in Laurel, MS.
Hardy’s back-up is Jamal Roberts, who leads the SEC in rushing. Oh, and by the way, two years ago, Missouri had Kewan Lacy too. You get the picture. Drinkwitz recruits the running back position as well as anyone in the SEC.
Despite running the football well this year (at least as base-level stats portray) even in Hardy’s absence, Missouri has been a little bit more of a pass-first offense. I imagine some of that is due to a lack of depth behind Roberts with Hardy out. Montana transfer running back Male Fonoti tore his ACL in Missouri’s season opener. I also figure some of this shift is due to having a talent like Simmons at quarterback and a pretty strong receiving corps around him. The Tigers’ offensive line has also been excellent in protecting Simmons, and in turn, Simmons has proved that he’s as good as any quarterback in the SEC when he’s given time to throw in a clean pocket.
Missouri is going to be a tough offense for this Ole Miss defense to try to stop. Simmons and the Tigers haven’t played the toughest of defenses up to this point, but have been more than formidable against the likes of Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Florida.
Missouri’s defensive front is fierce
Missouri has one of the best run defenses in college football. It allows just 78.3 yards per game, which is good for third in the SEC. The Tigers lost a lot off what was a really good defensive line a year ago, but appear to have rebuilt it pretty well. This is going to be a challenge for an Ole Miss offense that has not run the football consistently well at any point this year. Obviously, a large factor in that is Kewan Lacy not being healthy, but it’s still something that’s going to have to be better than it has been previously if Ole Miss is going to have a good chance to win the game.
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Five things to watch
As we do every Friday, here are five things I will be thinking about at kickoff.
1. Can the Ole Miss defensive line get to Simmons?
This is a pretty obvious one in any football game, but I feel as if it is particularly important this week. The Ole Miss defense has been wildly inconsistent this season (with more bad moments than good), but I suppose if there is a consistent component of this defense, it is that it has pressured opposing passers well this year for the most part. Simmons is more mobile than he often shows, but he doesn’t prefer to run nearly as often as someone like Sam Leavitt at LSU.
If Simmons is given time to throw in a clean pocket, it is going to be tough sledding for the Rebels. If Ole Miss can generate consistent pressure without having to aggressively blitz and not allow him to make throws to the deep and intermediate part of the field — which is where he’s shined — the Rebels will be in better shape. Simmons has been pressured on just less than 20 percent of his drop backs. His completion percentage is under 50 percent when pressured. When he’s not pressured, he’s completing 68 percent of his throws.
2. How effective is Kewan Lacy and the Ole Miss running game?
Kewan Lacy returned in last week’s win over Vanderbilt after missing the Florida game with a shoulder injury. Lacy was effective enough, but had just seven carries for 39 yards (some of that due to the game becoming a blowout). I thought Lacy looked fine for the most part, but you could tell he wasn’t 100 percent, and that his shoulder is still bothering him. This was particularly apparent right before he was about to take a hit.
This is just my opinion, but I don’t think Lacy will be 100 percent at any point the rest of the year. An ongoing shoulder injury is particularly tough for a running back. How effective can the Rebels be running the football with him, and also behind him? Makai Frazier had 13 carries for 73 yards last week. He’s not very explosive but he’s a serviceable back. J.T. Lindsey played well in the LSU game, but hardly played against Vanderbilt. I wonder if that’s partially due to his struggles with pass blocking — something Lacy is great at.
How heavily can Ole Miss lean on Lacy, not only in this game but for the rest of the season? And can the Rebels run the football effectively when he’s not on the field? I think Saturday will give us a clearer picture as to how to answer those questions as Ole Miss faces one of the best run defenses in the SEC.
3. Was the improved tackling real or opponent-driven?
After a brutal performance at Florida, the Ole Miss defense tackled much better against a Vanderbilt team that is going to finish near the bottom of the SEC. The Rebels were also more opportunistic in forcing turnovers. The defense seemed to play faster and with more confidence.
Missouri’s running back Roberts has touchdown runs of 54, 65 and 80 yards this season. He’s got 20 rushes of ten or more yards through six games. A missed tackle of Roberts could mean an immediate six points for the Tigers.
Was the Vanderbilt performance a sign of a defense — a group I still believe has a lot of talent — turning the corner as a unit? Or was it simply a product of playing one of the weaker teams in the SEC? We’ll surely learn this week as Missouri’s offense is both talented and explosive.
4. The secondary facing its toughest test yet?
The Ole Miss secondary, a group that was criticized early on in the season due to several communication errors and coverage busts, might be facing its toughest challenge so far this season. Simmons is definitely the best quarterback the Rebels have faced and I would take Missouri’s crop of receivers over just about anyone other than maybe Florida? Missouri has thrived on connecting on explosive pass plays deep down the field. Lee and Donovan Olugbode have combined for 1,023 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns through just six games.
Ole Miss will also be without Edwin Joseph in this game after he suffered a sprained ankle in the win over Vanderbilt. Joseph’s move from safety to corner, coupled with the debut of Sharif Denson, in the LSU game seemingly unlocked a better version of this Ole Miss secondary. How do the Rebels cope without Joseph? The secondary is going to have its hands full on Saturday. Is the unit up for the challenge?
5. Who finishes drives and who turns it over less?
Maybe kind of a throw-away here for my fifth one, but I think it is relevant. These two teams seem pretty equal on paper. I think this is going to be a close game that comes down to a handful of plays. Which team is able to finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals and which team turns it over less?
Ole Miss has statistically been the best red zone offense in the SEC this season. It has scored on all 20 red zone trips with 18 touchdowns and two field goals. Missouri has scored on 20 of 25 trips with 14 touchdowns and six field goals.
In a game in which the margins are sure to be slim, whoever is better in the red zone and turns it over less is likely to win.
Final thoughts
I am still not sure what to think of this Ole Miss team through five games. The Rebels have shown flashes of being a playoff-caliber team and have also looked like a pretty pedestrian SEC team at times. I thought the way the team responded against Vanderbilt is a positive sign that this is a veteran group that is able to turn the page, but I am also not going to drastically alter my opinion of the team based on them throttling a Vanderbilt team that is probably one of the three worst teams in the conference.
This matchup against Missouri is the game in which I think I will gain a better feel of this team and be able to form a more concrete opinion about what their postseason prognosis is, and how good (or not so good) this team actually is. Missouri is a tough test. It’s a game Ole Miss should win at home. We’ll see how it shakes out.
We’ll have more coverage on Sunday. Enjoy the game.