A look at Auburn and Ole Miss's injury status
A scout of Bo Nix, a struggling secondary and what to make of banged up Rebels team.
Hope everyone is having a good Thursday. We’ve got a new podcast out with Auburn beat writer (Montgomery Advertiser) Bennett Durando. We covered Bo Nix’s resurgence, a struggling Auburn secondary, Jarquez Hunter’s emergence as the team’s second running back and a ton more. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ll take a closer look at the Tigers today, how the Rebels match up and mix in some golf.
Ben Brown out for the year
I think this news happened since we last sent a newsletter, but Ben Brown is out for the year with a torn bicep. From the sound of his Instagram post announcing the news, that is the end of his Ole Miss career. That is gut wrenching for him. I hate to see anyone’s career end that way. I hope he heals quickly and gets a shot in professional football.
As far as what this means for Ole Miss, well, it’s clearly not good. But you saw what life without Ben Brown looked like last week. When Caleb Warren was in the game, Jordan Rhodes and Cedric Melton filled in at the other guard spot. I have no idea how much healthier Warren — who returned from injury last week in the LSU game in a limited capacity — is now than he was seven days ago, but you got a taste of what no Warren and Brown looked like too. Orlando Umana slid over to guard, Bryce Ramsey replaced him at center and some combination of Melton or Rhodes played the other guard slot. Ole Miss seemed to fare okay against LSU, but who knows how useful that sample size is.
The Rebels are fortunate in two ways:
It’s easier to get by with subpar guard play than it is at tackle.
They have more depth on the interior offensive line than they do at tackle. Jeremy James and Nick Broeker being healthy is really what is keeping this unit afloat.
The downside is obvious — the Rebels are without a veteran lineman after struggling in their first two true road environments. Communication and poise will be as big of issues as anything schematically. It will be interesting to see how the offensive line performs in this environment.
Get to know Auburn
The Tigers are 5-2 (2-1). They don’t do much of anything overly well and don’t do anything terribly either. They are a weird team that, to their credit, has found a way to win a couple of tough road games at LSU and at Arkansas to get to this spot. I am not discounting either one, but we saw what LSU actually is up close last week and I tend to believe Auburn caught Arkansas at the perfect time. The Razorbacks had just played three physical games in a row against Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss — none of which are at home. But Nix was terrific against Arkansas and just good enough in Baton Rouge to deliver two wins. That matters a lot, particularly considering he was benched the week prior in a bizarre game against Georgia State that Auburn almost lost. Jordan-Hare will be electric and the environment will be tough for this Ole Miss team with a patchwork offensive line and depleted receiving corps. But hey, the Rebels are playing a game that matters in late October. This is what most all of you suffered through the Matt Luke years for — to have a shot. Ole Miss has that on Saturday night.
Remember Good Bo, Bad Bo?
How sick of reading those headlines were you after the 2012-2014 seasons? I was guilty of it myself at the student newspaper back then. But it’s pretty true with Nix here and not that dissimilar than the Bo Wallace years nearly a decade ago. They aren’t the same players, of course. Nix was a five star prospect that’s had a rollercoaster of a career. Wallace was a junior college kid that used toughness and a funky delivery to become an underrated SEC quarter back. But they’re the same in the sense that their respective teams often go as they do.
The book seemed to be out on Nix after a pedestrian performance at Penn State was follow up by a dreadful half of football at home to Georgia State. Nix was benched for T.J. Finley in the third quarter of that game as Auburn trailed 24-12 and didn’t have a touchdown against a 1-3 group of five team. Finley, an LSU transfer brought in to push Nix, eventually orchestrated a 98-yard scoring drive to lead the Tigers to a win — their only offensive touchdown of the game. In the day and age of the transfer portal, sometimes coddled prospects and guys (rightfully) trying to make the most of their finite eligibility, you wouldn’t have been wrong to assume that was the end of Bo Nix at Auburn. That he’d find another school where he could start and play out the rest of his career. But, to his credit, he remained engaged and got another shot the next week. He willed Auburn to a in over LSU on the road. His numbers weren’t pretty (23-44 for 255 yards and a touchdown), but he made play after play when the Tigers were scuffling.
That game generated a lot of buzz about a rejuvenated Nix, but his most recent one is his best in an Auburn uniform. Nix went 21-26 for 292 yards, two touchdowns and an interception that wasn’t his fault in a road win at Arkansas. He enters this game off a bye and appears to be playing the best football of his career.
SkyBox is recently off of a +4.9 unit weekend on college football and 11.45 unit weekend on NASCAR. That’s +23 units on NASCAR in the last two weeks. What are you doing not utilizing them? Check them out here. They have a picks package for your preferred sport that will fit your price range. You’re missing out by not going to pay them your business. It will pay off in your bank account. Use the promo code “rippee” for 20 percent off any purchase. These guys are the real deal.
Mike Bobo catering to Nix’s strengths
For the first four games of the season, Nix was essentially a pocket passer in Mike Bobo’s offense. After the Georgia State debacle, he’s decided to cater to Nix’s strengths more. Nix is a decent runner. This is me just purely throwing out a theory, but it as erratic as he can be sometimes throwing the ball, Nix making a play with his feet to extend a first down or turn a broken play into a net positive is something he feeds off of and keeps him confidently engaged in the game. I wonder if a lack of running early on had any effect on the rest of his game.
Anyway, for comparison’s sake, Nix ran the ball 11 times in the first four games combined (not including sacks). He ran 12 times against LSU, 10 (with four sacks Georgia) and five times for a nifty 42 yards plus a score at Arkansas. Nix is not a staple of Auburn’s running game, but he has clearly factored in more lately. That’s something to keep an eye on Saturday.
Drops are an issue
For all the Nix criticism this year, his receivers haven’t helped the cause. A year after Auburn lost its top three receivers to the NFL, its had a tough time replacing them. This receiving corps has dropped 25 passes this season, nearly half of those seemed like they came in the Georgia game. It was frustrating to watch and I didn’t even have a dog in the fight. Georgia transfer Demetrius Robinson, Kobe Hudson Shedrick Jackson and tight and (and presumable Sigma Chi pledge trainer) John Samuel Shenker are Nix’s four primary targets. Auburn will work in a couple other tight ends as well. The Tigers have used that position much more than you grew accustomed to seeing the Gus Malzahn era.
Bigsby, Hunter headline backs
Auburn has had a pretty good year running the football. Those that cover the program will tell you the offensive line has regressed a bit in terms of run blocking but the Tigers still rank 5th in the SEC in rushing and average 5.7 yards per carry. Tank Bigsby is the household name and feature back. In August, most would’ve presumed that Shaun Shivers would be the No. 2 guy, but he missed time with an injury and seems to have become a third down, pass-catching back since his return. Philadelphia, MS, native Jarquez Hunter has become a concrete second option. He has 492 yards on the year to Bigsby’s 526, but has done so on 45 fewer carries (102 for Bigsby and 57 for Hunter). This is a good backfield and a strong rushing attack with more depth than Tennessee had to offer. If you’ll remember the Vols were without their top running back in the Rebels’ win in Knoxville.
This will be a test for a defense that has fared better against the run the last couple of weeks. This will be the toughest assignment of the three. But if they’re successful in neutralizing the running game, you have to like Ole Miss’s chances if the game is placed in the hands of Nix.
Some defensive notes
Auburn’s secondary was thought to be the strength of its defense heading into the season. It has been by far and away the biggest weakness. The Tigers have struggled to adjust to more zone coverages in Derek Mason’s defense as opposed to a lot of strict man coverage under Kevin Steele under the previous staff. Miscommunications have been frequent. Some look like the 2018 Ole Miss defense where there isn’t a defender within a television screen length of the receiver. Good quarterbacks will pray on that. Ole Miss has one of those, but who will he be throwing to?
Auburn has a strong defensive line that’s created a pretty consistent pass rush this year. The front seven is pretty stout and will apparently get star linebacker Owen Pappoe back this week. That’s not great news for Ole Miss.
Auburn allows just 122 yards per game rushing. Ole Miss will need to come closer to doubling that than matching it if it wishes to win this game.
Chandler Wooten has emerged as a great linebacker this year in Pappoe’s absence and now Pappoe returns. I wonder how they’re used on the field together.
Colby Wooden, Derek Hall and Eku Leota are three productive edge guys for Auburn. That’s where most of the pressure comes from and that’ll be a hell of a challenge for this Ole Miss offensive line.
Current Deal: For being a loyal subscriber, show him proof of subscription and you’ll get a 16 oz. prime strip for $15 and a pack of sausage for $5. That’s a hell of a dinner on the grill for 20 bucks. Go check him out, it’s the best place in Mississippi to get meat and Oxford is lucky to have it.
Magnolia State golf update
We’ve hit a little bit of a lull in the golf season, but Mississippians are still doing some big things in the ranks of professional golf.
The PGA Tour is in Bermuda this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Three Mississippians are in the field.
Tupelo native and Mizzou alum Hayden Buckley shot a first round even par 71 in some pretty dreadful wind conditions. He sits at T-33 as of this writing. Buckley’s last month has consistent of top 10s in each of his last two starts and getting engaged in the two weeks he had off before this tournament. Life is pretty swell for the former walk-on right now.
Fulton native and Mississippi State Alum Chad Ramey is 5-under thru 16 as of this writing and is one off the lead. Ramey is coming off a T-14 finish at the Shiners Open in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago (that’s the last event these rookies with the minimum status have been eligible to get into). He tees off at 6:52 a.m. CT tomorrow morning.
Hattiesburg native and Alabama alum Davis Riley is even thru 14 holes as of this writing. Riley made his first cut of the season in Las Vegas and finished T-56.
Little Rock, MS, native and Georgia Tech alum Andy Ogletree was the medalist at the Dothan, AL, site of the second stage of Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying School. He earned Korn Ferry Tour membership as a result and will move on to the final stage to determine what his priority and status are heading into the first few events on that tour in 2022. The 2019 U.S. Amateur champ has spent the last 18 months battling injuries and appears to finally be healthy. He is an incredible talent that you’ll see on the PGA Tour soon.
On the horizon:
Friday pod with Greg’s picks plus another guest from the 2003 Ole Miss Football team. Here’s a hint: he’s a gritty, tough wide receiver. A real gym rat. The first one in the building and the last one to leave.
Friday football newsletter
Reaction show with Weldon on Sunday.
That is all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by smashing the subscribe button below. It is free.