A complicated Early Signing Day for the Rebels
Ole Miss added some good players, missed on some and is gambling on the portal
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Hope everyone has had a good week. We’ve got a pair of podcasts out, both with former Ole Miss recruiting specialist Weldon Rotenberg. The first was our Sunday show. I peppered him with questions about what the days leading up to National Signing Day are like inside the football building, if it’s as dramatic as fans make it out to be and more. Check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We also did a recap of the yesterday’s signees, what Ole Miss still needs, the gamble of the transfer portal and more. You can check that out here or anywhere you get podcasts.
We’ve got more of the same to talk about here.
{editor’s note: this was supposed to be sent on Thursday, but never got pushed out. Not sure what happened there. I am sure it was an error on my part. We will have a more updated newsletter later today or tomorrow.}
Ole Miss had a decent day with some misses that sting
The Rebels welcomed 15 members of its 2022 signing class on Wednesday, but most of the discussion was about who wasn’t among the 15. The Rebels were unable to flip Jaheim Oatis from Alabama despite a late push. Jacarious Clayton, a one-time Mississippi State commit that flipped to Ole Miss, flipped again and signed with Bulldogs. Mississippi State beat Ole Miss for Percy Lewis and Trevion Williams, too. The class, to this point, leaves much to be desired.
This is the part where I should tell you I do not cover recruiting ferociously and have never been in a job that asked me to do so. I don’t know anything about these players beyond what I read and where they are rated across the various recruiting service networks. I understand recruiting determines the success of a program more so than anything else. I’ve just never been big on trying to get inside the minds of 17-year-old kids in terms of where they are going to school. That’s not a knock on anyone who follows or covers recruiting religiously. I understand following daily recruiting content is almost addictive (in a fun way), and the covering it is incredibly hard to do and I admire the people who cover recruiting well because it is an often ridiculous beat to manage. I feel like I have actually followed it closer this year, partially because I do a podcast with someone who worked in a recruiting office and partially because I do find Ole Miss’s roster-building approach fascinating.
With all of that said, even a novice like me understands that Wednesday wasn’t a great day for Ole Miss. And, whether fans want to admit it or not, it likely feels worse with Mississippi State having more success. I think there are reasons for some of this. How many times over the last two weeks did you read that Ole Miss was “making a late push” for a player. It made the Rebels sound like me cramming for a finance exam that I couldn’t bring myself to turn off NFL Red Zone to study for until a few hours before the test.
I think some of that speaks to what has been reported about Lane Kiffin’s lack of organization when it comes to recruiting. I don’t think the ass-kissing side of recruiting is Kiffin’s favorite thing in the world. Don’t mistake that for me saying he doesn’t like to recruit. I think he enjoys evaluating players and is pretty good at it. But forgive me for thinking he probably doesn’t win a family over in the living room like Pastor Hugh Freeze or Mississippi Made Matt Luke. Perhaps I am wrong. This is just me formulating a somewhat educated guess. I don’t meant to lob up another generalization, but I also believe there is some correlation between this last-minute recruiting approach and how Kiffin views job at Ole Miss. By all accounts, Kiffin was interested in other jobs after this season. I’d venture to guess he was a little shocked that he wasn’t in higher demand after a 10-2 season. Upon coming to this unpleasant realization, did part of him realize he’s going to have to win at a high level for multiple years to get the jobs he presumably covets? Maybe. I imagine most of you are tired of the ‘Kiffin leaving Ole Miss’ conversation, but it’s not even an Ole Miss thing. Kiffin’s never stayed anywhere for a long period of time. There is quite literally no precedent to go off of. Again, it’s a pretty general observation, but I do think there is merit to it.
All of that aside, I do believe Kiffin and this staff made a conscious decision a while ago to hit the transfer portal hard in the 2022 class. I think they looked at what they are losing off of this year’s roster, took a glance at what was in the cupboard as far as replacements and felt like they needed more immediate impact guys. It’s probably a good strategy. But discussing this strategy requires nuance. It is a sizeable risk to bank on the transfer portal year after year. If you don’t hit on most of the guys you bring in, there likely won’t be a good alternative option behind them on the depth chart. There’s a reason Alabama signed 22 guys yesterday, Georgia inked 23 and Texas A&M landed 25 on its way to earning the title of the No. 1 class in the country. Recruiting high school talent and developing it is the pathway to long term success. Look at how Dabo Swinney built Clemson. The programs who rule the roost in this sport did most of their work yesterday.
There is also reason Ole Miss isn’t one of those programs and it isn’t because of a second-year head coach. Why try the same path non-blue bloods have been trying for decades to earn that very status? I think the portal offers the opportunity for those programs to close the gap and win at the margins, but I think it requires a balance of being very good at recruiting good high school talent and developing it, and then filling in the gaps via the portal. Schools like Ole Miss just might have more gaps to fill than an Alabama or Georgia. As for this year, the Rebels seem to have more gaps than fans are comfortable with. Ole Miss needs a quarterback, multiple receivers, at least one offensive linemen and significant help on the defensive line. It got a corner by landing Auburn transfer Ladarius Tennison. Did I mention that the Rebels need a quarterback? Even if they end up going with Luke Altmyer — which I doubt, and that isn’t an indictment on Altmyer as a player. I am just not certain the staff feels he is ready yet — they still need another quarterback because they didn’t sign one in this class. That’s a pretty rare move. Maybe they sign one in February. There is another signing day, after all. Who knows. There is still a ton of work left to be done. If it’s done well, then the Rebels will be fine. If it isn’t, then they’ll take a step back next year.
With all of that said, this isn’t a terrible class by any means and yesterday wasn’t a terrible day. It got better on Thursday as I wrote this with Bryson Hurst signing. Ole Miss got good players in this class. Jarron Willis sounds like he’ll be a hell of a player. The staff seems to really covet Quinshon Judkins as a running back. Larry Simmons is a receiver with a pretty impressive offer sheet. Kiffin was adamant in his presser that they took a patient approach. I think there is some truth to that. They didn’t want to take a lot of projects. That’s why there’s only 15 high school kids. I assumed they’ll seek to add about a dozen more guys, likely mostly transfers with a few high schoolers mixed in, before spring and leave a couple of spots open for some post-spring transfer opportunities. That’s the other thing about Kiffin preaching patience. There’s no truncated window of time to land transfers. They don’t even sign letters of intent. Chance Campbell got to Oxford last summer. In a perfect world, everyone would go through spring ball, but that’s not realistic.
I think the disappointment stems from the guys that didn’t come. Fans and consumers still have the mindset of National Signing Day being like Christmas morning. I think the split signing periods quelled that excitement very slightly and 85 percent of it transferred over to this early signing window. If the real Christmas happened for the second time two months after December 25th, would you be as excited about it? I think the transfer portal has altered what early NSD is more so than the split signing periods. When I was in college, guys skipped class and huddled around TVs and laptops to watch Robert Nkemdiche, Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil put on an Ole Miss hat. It all played out over the course of like six hours. Hell, they even did it for that kid who jumped out of a plane when he announced and but never panned out — his career that is, not the parachute. (Remember Deontay Anderson? He’s still playing college ball at Houston. Yes, really.) There are still buzz-generating guys like that. Oatis would’ve been one of them. I think the Moore kid who ended up at Michigan would have too. It’s fair to ask why Ole Miss got none of them. The program just capped a 10-2 season with some incredible crowds and big time victories. If this staff can’t sell Ole Miss when its regular season win total was the highest in program history, then how will they ever? (this is hyperbolic but the premise fair). To me, that’s where the sense of doom and gloom is coming from. It’s not totally invalid either. Again, it’s complicated.
I am fascinated by all of this and how Ole Miss builds this roster out. These were a lot of jumbled up thoughts to try to add context to a complicated situation. I’ll close with simplicity. I think all of these things are true:
Kiffin needs to become a more organized recruiter.
Kiffin also needs to recruit a little harder, as stupid as that sounds. Whether he stopped for a while because he thought he’d be elsewhere or took the Dan Mullen in-season approach, the lack of persistence in the months leading up to the final two weeks cost them. Whatever you think of Hugh Freeze and Matt Luke, they could charm a Southern family gathered in their living room. Do you think Kiffin is good at lying about how good someone’s mother’s crawfish pie is? Just a guess, but I think he is probably worse at that than others in in that regard.
Ole Miss still has a chance to be fine. It needs to figure out the quarterback thing sooner than later. Guys are coming off the market left than right. I imagine they’d prefer a guy with Power Five experience as opposed to a Cam Ward type who seems to be highly coveted but is making the jump from whatever level Incarnate Word is to major college football. Solving this soon will cure some angst.
I don’t think Ole Miss will utilize this strategy as heavily each year Kiffin is here in the future. Who knows how long that is, but I have to think there will be more of a high school emphasis next year. Still a mix, just weighted the other direction.
Fans will freak out and complain regardless. That’s what makes them fans and all of this fun.
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Kiffin’s portal thoughts + a rant about talk radio
Humor me for a minute, if you will. Lane Kiffin’s Monday presser after the team’s first bowl practice produced a soundbite that went viral. Kiffin was asked about the rapidly evolving recruiting landscape. He spoke about college football basically having free agency without binding contracts.
First, I’ll get the rant out of the way. I have no idea why I gravitated to this, but while sitting in an abundance of traffic during my daily Dallas commute over the last couple of days, I pivoted away from podcasts and toward talk radio just to change it up for a couple of days. I primarily listened to Mad Dog Radio, which is about as old-fashioned sports talk radio as you’ll find. Chris Mad Dog Russo takes a lot of calls and talks a lot of baseball. His other shows take a lot of calls too and hit pretty generic topics. I get that Russo is a legend in the industry, I just don’t understand the appeal of national sports talk radio in its most old-fashioned form. It’s why I find Finebaum’s show to be horrific. What value does taking calls for three hours add? How many times has anyone in the history of the world listened to callers on a radio show and thought “Wow, Bill from Flagstaff murdered that LeBron take. What a terrific point.” I find it miserable to listen to.
Anyways, yesterday, I was driving and heard at least the fourth different radio show this week play this clip and package it as some variation of “Lane Kiffin has some complaints about the transfer portal.” Am I taking crazy peels for not interpreting that as complaining at all? I don’t understand this narrative. A couple of things.
Have any of these blowhards ever heard Kiffin speak? That guy could win the lottery and would still sound like he was make a speech at a funeral in his next press conference. It’s just how he is.
Why would Kiffin be anti-portal? Has anyone noticed what the portal has done for him in two years at Ole Miss? His batting average with transfers is remarkable. I’d wager it’s more likely he has a transfer portal tattoo on his back than him loathing it like Dabo Swinney.
I just think the entire way information is packaged and presented in our national media cycle is lazy and disingenuous. I don’t think Kiffin is against these kids making money either. I think he has genuine concerns about it being completely unregulated, like most coaches have. These guys are control freaks by nature and now they source of the lifeblood of their program is even more uncontrollable. It also makes sense. Any good thing in life without regulation ends up turning into something bad, whether that was the intention or not. Eventually, this is going to have to be regulated in some form or another or it’s going to turn into all parties getting exploited in some form or fashion. I mean, how can you argue with the “free agency without a contract” point? Quinn Ewers skipped his senior year of high school to sign a seven figure NIL deal at Ohio State and transferred to Texas a year later. How is that for a return on investment? You think these rich companies and the people that run them are going to continue to shell out that kind of coin if they can’t guarantee the kid will even be at their school in a year? I don’t. That will hurt the market from the standpoint of the players. I don’t loathe what Ewers did by any means. Go make as much money as you can. I just think practices like that will eventually work against the players.
Kiffin followed up these comments with more on Wednesday with a quote that basically said “I hope these kids get what they’re promised.” I think he’s a little grouchy that Ole Miss hasn’t capitalized on NIL yet like some other places have. Don’t worry. That’s coming. Ole Miss isn’t behind. Most programs are playing catch up to the select few who were on top of it quicker than everyone else, just like any other marketplace. I also think there is some genuineness to Kiffin thinking these kids are being sold a load of shit and won’t end up signing the deals they were promised in the recruiting process once they get to campus. I think that specific quote is more so the former but the latter is true too.
Anyway, my days of national talk radio shows that take callers are over and I don’t think Kiffin was railing on NIL and transfers like Dabo who complained that the sport is being ruined and education is being devalued (what a joke. Good luck sustaining a program with that mindset). I don’t think I am crazy for having either opinion.
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Top recruit Hunter signs with Jackson State
The internet broke yesterday when Travis Hunter, the No. 1 ranked recruit in the country, flipped from Florida State to sign with Jackson State and play for Deion Sanders. Rumors immediately surfaced of a ridiculously large NIL deal with Barstool Sports as being the predominant factor this development. Sanders is a part-time employee (I think, it may be a partnership. Who cares.) with Barstool and the sports and gambling content company produces a weekly documentary-like show on Jackson State.
Sanders denied these rumors but who knows what to make of that. The kid wasn’t going to Jackson State (or Florida State, for that matter) for free. There’s got to be some semblance of truth to it. I guess we will find out soon. Every person with internet access had an opinion on this, so I supposed I will offer mine.
First off, good for the kid. He made a bold move and blazed his own trail. Whatever amount of money he’s getting, great on him. I also think HBCU’s getting more exposure and better players is a great thing. Jackson State was a remarkable story this year and what Sanders is doing in Mississippi’s capital city is incredible. I have no idea how it will work out for him. It’s weird to think about the top-rated player in any class not ever playing on national television. This happened in basketball a couple of years ago with a prospect named Makur Makur (not a typo). He was a 5-star center from Phoenix (originally from Sudan, Africa). He signed to play at Howard, an HBCU, and did it with the intent of blazing a trail for others to do so. Makur got hurt two games in, never played for Howard again and is now toiling around in the Australian Basketball League. Of course I am not projecting that could happen to Hunter, I just found the other major case of this ending in no one hearing from the player again interesting. I hope Hunter breaks every single college football record imaginable and plays on both sides of the football. I am simply curious to see if this story has any staying power beyond a splashy headline in National Signing Day.
I also don’t think this is at all indicative of some larger trend. Look at Georgia, Alabama and Texas A&M’s signing classes. It’s all chock full of elite players. I think NIL has given guys that want to go off the beaten path an opportunity to do so without harming their future financial security, which is a good thing. I just don’t think it is going to alter the balance of power in an archaically managed and corrupt sport.
On the horizon:
Friday pod with bowl picks and a basketball check in with Bracken Ray
I weekend newsletter to make up for getting off schedule.
That’s all from me today. Thanks for being a loyal subscriber. Send to your friends and tell them to join in on the fun by hitting the subscribe button below. It is free.